940 
FOUS30 KWBC 011321
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
920 AM EDT SUN JUN 01 2014
...VALID 15Z SUN JUN 01 2014 - 12Z MON JUN 02 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NW OTM 10 ESE CNC LWD 35 NE STJ 10 SE STJ 20 NNE TOP
20 W TOP 15 SSW MHK 20 WSW MHK 30 NE SLN 15 E CNK 20 ESE HJH
15 SSE JYR 20 N JYR OLU 15 E OFK 25 NE OFK 15 SSW YKN 10 NNE YKN
20 SW FSD 15 WNW FSD 25 ENE MHE 20 ENE 9V9 10 NNE 9V9 35 NNW ICR
30 SSE PHP 25 SSE PHP 15 E PHP 25 NE PHP 45 WNW PIR 45 NW PIR
25 SSW MBG 20 ESE MBG 40 ESE MBG 30 SSW ABR 35 SE ABR 15 NNW ATY
25 W DXX MVE 15 ENE BBB 15 E GHW 15 WSW LXL LXL 10 WNW JMR
20 ESE CDD 10 E BFW 30 E BFW 20 W CMX 30 SSE CMX 25 ESE RHI
25 ESE VOK 15 NW OTM.
AFTER LOOKING AT THE 12Z RAOBS AND RECENT RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND TRENDS..SEE NO REASON TO GO AGAINST EARLIER THINKING.  A BROAD
SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS MAINTAINED FOR THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD
IN WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A CONTINUED ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL PLAINS---UPPER MS
VALLEY--LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY REGIONS.  IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST
AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY--ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS IN SEVERAL STREAMS WILL BE PUSHING
EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES---EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY---EASTWARD
TOWARD THE UPPER TO MID MS VALLEY REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY.  AN AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THESE AREAS AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS---SUPPORTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS IN WHAT
IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN AHEAD OF THESE
HEIGHT FALLS.  THERE IS AN ABOVE AVERAGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE
MODEL QPFS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD PERIOD---LEADING TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS.  THE DIFFERENCES ARE NOT ONLY WITH HOW FAST
TO THE SOUTHEAST CONVECTION SPREADS--BUT ALSO HOW HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  WITH RESPECT TO THE DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT---WPC
QPF WENT IN THE DIRECTION OF THE LATEST HI RES ARW-NMM TYPE
SOLUTIONS WHICH WERE ON THE FASTER END OF THE GUIDANCE.  WITH
HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO PUSH FAIRLY FAR TO THE EAST BY THE END OF
THIS PERIOD---PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ABLE TO ALSO PUSH FAR
DOWNSTREAM.  WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE AHEAD OF THE
EASTWARD MOVING HEIGHT FALLS---A FARTHER SOUTHWARD QPF AXIS IS
ALSO FAVORED.  THE CMC GEM---NAM AND UKMET HAVE MUCH HEAVIER QPF
TOTALS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAN DO THE MORE SUPPRESSED HI RES
ARW---NMM AND ECMWF.   ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE RAINFALL
AREAS---SEVERAL MODELS SHOW VERY HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING ANYWHERE FROM NORTHERN TO NW OK INTO LARGE PORTIONS
OF KS IN A REGION OF STRONG INFLOW INTO A STRENGTHENING WEST TO
EAST BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS.  SOME OF THE
HIGHER FFG VALUES IN THE AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION ARE ACROSS
THESE REGIONS.  HOWEVER---INTENSE SHORT TERM RAINFALL RATES COULD
STILL POSE RUNOFF RISKS HERE.  OTHERWISE---SHORT TERM RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1+ INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ACTIVE CONVECTION--LEADING
TO POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES.
TERRY
$$