Scott's Oct 2006 Blog

Mid-Atlantic Radar

Scott's October, 2006 Blog

TRICK OR TREAT! It's Invest 93L Back From The Dead And Knocking At The Door!
Tuesday, October 31

I know today is Halloween...a date for devilish chicanery, so I'm not surprised the Western Caribbean disturbance is back as Invest 93L. Before anyone starts screaming, I have a tropical treat (unless the storm pulls a hellacious trick). While this disturbance is firing off some storms, there remains no model support for development. The NAM (Eta) and SHIPs bring it to just under 30 knots on Friday but these certainly are not the preferred "go-to" models, especially deep in the Caribbean. The system should get the boot and sharply recurve and could bring inclement weather to South Florida, but I am forecasting no development. We are running model maps on Invest 93 in our Premium Service section.

Otherwise, nothing brewing in the Atlantic Basin. Happy Halloween!

Nothing Shaking In The Tropics...But a Shake Up At The Red Cross.
Monday, October 30

TROPICS: As suggested here last week, the wave approaching the central Caribbean has done The Big Fizzle and will not organize. As such, "Invest 93L" has been dropped. Computer models were antsy about a wave over the Bahamas, but they have backed off on this idea and it too seems unlikely to organize.

Weekend Storm: The Mid-Atlantic missed most of the recent storm damage and flooding was kept to a minimum. Very damaging winds buffeted the Northeast, including my former hometown of Portland, Maine. A 165 foot crane was toppled by winds, damaging several houses. Picture HERE. The incident occurred at Maine Medical, approximately 1 mile from where I lived! I was saddened to learn the roof was blown off my favorite bakery up there. More on this story by clicking HERE. This weekend's damage was the most severe since "The Halloween Hurricane"...which later became better known as The Perfect Storm...also on the last weekend of October.

Red Cross Reorganization: The American Red Cross continues riding through rough waters in Katrina's wake. Today, the organization provided some details on sweeping changes designed to prevent problems encountered in Katrina's aftermath.

I've pulled no punches here regarding how sluggish, wasteful and top-heavy the Red Cross has become. I've talked directly to literally dozens of people caught in the tangles of bureaucracy and paperwork, ultimately they gave up and moved on. This is unfortunate both for them and all the many terrific people who serve as Red Cross volunteers. I know many volunteers...in fact, I was one for several years...these people by and large are caring and considerate. My beef (and apparently many others) is not with them. But the Red Cross needs fixing if they are ever to again earn the trust of a caring and giving America. After Katrina, I wrote checks to the Red Cross and shelled out an unknown amount of cash. By November, 2005, I promised I'd eat a "lint sandwich" before they'd get another penny from me. I hope today's news changes my mind. Read about today's Red Cross announcement HERE.

Saturday-Sunday Storm: BOMBS AWAY!
Saturday, October 28

Our very powerful "inland runner" storm this morning is centered over Western New York and continues to deepen...if you're in the Eastern US check your barometer. You'll hear forecasters sometime say a storm has "bombed out" and sometimes on the weather boards you'll see the word "bombogenesis". This simply means a storm is rapidly deepening and the pressure is dropping rapidly, typically around 24 millibars in 24 hours. You can see this storm's approach and pass our wx station in Virginia here:

From 8AM Friday to 8AM this morning our SLP dropped from 30.10 to 29.39...about 25 millibars, so we can officially say "bombs away" with today's storm. Well away from the rapidly deepening Low you can see our pressure plunging and begin to rise: that's when the winds start to really howl. Check out our real-time winds and weather conditions from the WeatherCenter in Lexington, Virginia by clicking HERE.

This will be a heavy rain event today for the Northeast, where two inches of rainfall should be common. Check our Severe WeatherCenter for real-time flood information.

Remembering winds around Low Pressure blow counter clock-wise, folks along the coast need to be concerned with rough seas. In areas where Gale and Storm Warnings are posted you can expect seas of 15...perhaps 20 feet! Click HERE to see conditions from atop Portland Head Light, near my hometown of Portland, Maine.

This storm will produce a widespread damaging wind event. Winds of 20-40MPH are expected behind the storm over the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley with gusts to 50MPH, especially along ridge tops. In the Northeast, sustained winds may exceed 40MPH (tropical storm force) with gusts of 50-60MPH. Winds of this strength are capable of toppling trees and power lines. I need to keep this short so I can hunker down my deck furniture!

Much colder air rushes in behind the storm on Sunday and snow will be the next feature with this event. Lake Effect Snow will fly but will not cover an expansive area or reach the Alleghany Mountains.

INVEST 93L remains weak and should not strengthen today. I haven't stuck a fork in it just yet, but modest wind shear and interaction with the Greater Antilles keep development opportunities very remote. Even if the system holds together, it will most likely recurve over the Bahamas and not approach the US.

Invest 93L and Windy White Stuff in the Northeast.
Friday, October 27

A small and disorganized area of Low Pressure is approaching the Windward Islands has been dubbed Invest 93L (Premium Service members will find current model maps online). This will not develop but will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Lesser Antilles this weekend. No other areas of interest in the tropics.

General ideas presented here over the last week seem good...the potential for wrap around snow in portions of the Northeast should materialize. The potent storm currently located over Arkansas (yesterday produced 20 tornado reports) will rapidly intensify as it moves into the Northeast this weekend. Heavy rain will continue in the Deep South, where a Tornado Watch is currently in effect. By the time the storm reaches the Northeast and traverses Ontario and Quebec Province, it may be sporting VERY strong winds due to a tight pressure gradient. Temps certainly will drop on the backside of the storm as winds howl from the NW and North...Lake Effect Snows, especially off Lake Erie look good. There is potential for accumulating snows for Upstate NY and the western slopes of the Green and White Mountains. Heavy rain may fall south of the NYS Thruway on Saturday...possibly switching to mixed precip from Rochester to Albany. This will be a formidable storm and wind damage is probable over higher elevation of Upstate NYS. Strong...potentially damaging...winds will develop from the interior Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley into the Northeast on Saturday and really blow late Saturday night. Visit our Severe StormCenter and Winter StormCenter for current information.

I'll have an update either tonight or Saturday morning, as conditions warrant.

Tropical Tranquility, the Wintry "F Word" and New Weekend Storm Coming.
Tuesday, October 24

Nothing to report in the tropics. I am a lifelong New York Yankees fan and live by Yogi Berra's credo: "it ain't over till it's over", but the weather pattern continues to evolve and it is unlikely synoptic weather will become kind toward tropical development. I think there's a shot for warming and more favorable conditions next week, but that's November and I see nothing to indicate there's trouble on the horizon. Won't it be a curious year if our biggest hit turns out to be Ernesto?

Late last night I went out on the deck at my home...cold and windy! Alas, there it was: the "F-word". Flurries. No accumulations along the lee side of the Appalachians, but the flurries were flying. First, the Yankees embarrassingly exit the playoffs and now this. This is the October of my discontent. The truth is pre-Halloween snow flurries along the Mid-Atlantic mountains are quite common, but I don't have to like it.

The blustery hint of winter comes to us from counter clock-wise flow around Low Pressure near Nova Scotia. Yet another impulse (Short Wave) is digging from the Lakes down across the Mid-Atlantic, keeping winds brisk and triggering some elevation flurries. How anyone likes temperatures 15 to 20 degrees below normal I'll never know!

Hurricane Paul, down over the Baja, will help push tropical moisture over the western Gulf coast as a new storm develops in the Southwest. This storm should then cross Oklahoma before approaching the East. Here's this morning's Storm Tracks for the GFS and the NAM (click for more models):

Rain should overspread the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys as well as the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Energy from the Northern Stream may enhance precipitation totals and produce heavy rain in some locations. Key point is the storm pumps in air from the south so this will be a wet...not white...event for the region. Rain and wind reach the Northeast on Friday. I think the general idea presented in last Saturday's blog still has value. A "secondary Low" should pop up near the Outer Banks but will not bomb off the Northeast coast as suggested. Instead, this new storm may track across eastern VA, the Delmarva and into NJ or eastern PA on Saturday. This would set the stage for a backlash type of event, where more wind and flurries come in behind this system for WV and PA. If sufficiently strong, Lake Effect Snows may also be in the offing on Saturday and Sunday. At this time I doubt the white stuff advances east of the mountains, but we'll keep an eye on developments.

As suggested in the tropical comments, temperatures should moderate next week as a more zonal west to east flow takes over.

Saturday Comments
Saturday, October 21

Invest 90L has bit the dust (again)...this time for good. Nothing else brewing in the tropics at this time.

Several models show a new Low Pressure area developing this weekend over Illinois and tracking toward New England. A 'secondary Low" then pops off the coast and bombs out en route to Newfoundland later next week. There is potential for this next storm to be much larger than the recent system that has crossed the Northeast. This system will also usher in a strong Cold Front that will bring a chill back to the air all the way into the Deep South.

Speaking of chilly air, late October in Virginia means Apple Butter and I'm off to a local community festival in search of this culinary temptation. Homemade apple butter here is not the same as that stuff you buy in a store; folks start churning over an open fire at 6AM and it is not ready until late afternoon. But it is worth the wait! If I find some it will be necessary to punch a new hole or two in my belt.

Next update on Monday. Have a great weekend.

INVEST 90L: "It's Baaaaack!"
Thursday, October 19

Low Pressure ESE of Puerto Rico has again become somewhat organized and so Invest 90L is back in play. Current satellite below...click for color and animation.

Wind shear is below typical climo for this time of year but remains modest and should decrease slightly over the next 48 hours. Steering on this wave should be to the north. Heavy rain is expected for the Virgin Islands. While the SHIPs model brings this up to a tropical storm, it is the outlier and TD strength seems to me to be unlikely, to say nothing of a tropical storm.

Otherwise, nothing pending in the tropics.

Over the US the active storm sequence continues with another bout of nasty weather and rain for portions of Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas. As depicted HERE by the SREF (Short Range Ensemble Forecast) on our Storm Track forecast map, Low Pressure will migrate from Louisiana across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Gusty winds will accompany rain and storms across the Mid-Atlantic tonight and the Ohio Valley and Northeast on Friday where several inches of rain may fall...again triggering localized flooding. Much cooler air slides in behind the storm with below normal highs on Friday for much of the Eastern US, except along the coast. Another Cold Front crosses the Northeast, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic late Sunday with more cooler air and Lake Effect Snows possible.

So far, I've been able to not fire up the wood stove at home, but that may not last much longer!

Inland US Storm Track Models Coming Back Online (Slowly)
Tuesday, October 17

Quick note to indicate our US Storm Track Model Maps are now beginning to again function. These *free* model maps show computer model projected tracks for areas of Low Pressure over the US and Canada. These maps are offered free on the web site and are not the same as our Premium Service hurricane model maps...but are very helpful, especially in winter. Hopefully, by tomorrow all model runs will be back. They've been down for over a week due to NCEP's Environmental Modeling Center having issues with their new server. Click here for these helpful free model maps and select the most recent "Zulu" hour (East Coast is 4 hours behind Zulu).

In the tropics, the GFS model continues trying to spin up a storm south and then east of Bermuda on Thursday...we'll see.

Hot on the heels of the recent earthquake in Hawaii comes a report that the Bay Area is a high risk for landslides and a seismically dangerous place to live. The new risk maps will be released publicly tomorrow and will show numerous high priority areas in Southern California. As if to accentuate this point, just today there was a "micro" 2.5 not far from LA and "light" 4.9 off the coast of Northern California. We usually have several days to monitor a hurricane...there is no such equal opportunity with an important earthquake. Click Here for a handy link to bookmark if you're interested in Seismogram Displays; the page links numerous local "drums" in California and for East Coast folks, a near real-time seismograph from Virginia Tech.

Will update the blog Wednesday if anything gets interesting in the Atlantic.

INVEST 92L and a Southern Soaking.
Sunday, October 15

INVEST 92L is our current area of disturbed weather, located on the Mexican coast in the western Gulf of Mexico. Computer models track the Low to the northeast...away from land...and there is a slight chance this may develop. The SHIPs model brings it to tropical storm strength, while the more reliable (close to any land mass) DSHP projects only minor development before doing The Big Fizzle. I will be extremely surprised if this system becomes anything more than a Tropical Depression. We'll certainly keep an eye on this as the tropical models do bring the disturbance into Louisiana and then across the lower Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic States. Click HERE for current satellite presentation.

INVEST 90L has been blown to bits by vigorous wind shear. Rain and storms will continue to plague Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through Tuesday.

Significant Southern Storminess coming from Texas into North Carolina as a slow moving system produces rain into Tuesday. While it looks like much of the Sunshine State will miss the rains, strong thunderstorms and possibly isolated tornadoes should develop from Texas and Arkansas over to Louisiana and Mississippi. As this is written (7:30PM), a Tornado Watch is up for west TX. The rain will continue to overspread the Tennessee Valley as it migrates up to interior Virginia and North Carolina on Tuesday. Areas that have recently received heavy rain should be alert for the possibility of flooding with this event. Here's the current 24 hour rainfall forecast map:

And, a disaster has been declared in Hawaii as a strong earthquake shook the islands shortly after 7AM local time today. The 6.6 quake did not produce a tsunami, however widespread power outages were reported. Numerous aftershocks in the 3-4 range continue. Click HERE for more on the earthquake from USGS.

Tight schedule on Monday, so my next blog will probably be on Tuesday.

Saturday Tropical Update.
Saturday, October 14

Quick update on the tropics and some web site housekeeping.

INVEST 91L in the central Atlantic has been dropped.
INVEST 90L, currently located due North of Puerto Rico, is behaving as previously discussed here. The weak area of Low Pressure has been sheared and will produce rain but this will not develop.
No other Atlantic Basin activity at this time.

Housekeeping: We've changed the weather icons at our local current conditions page and our weather "stickeys". Along with our Premium Service world famous hurricane model maps, we also offer FREE model maps projecting storm tracks over the contiguous United States (CONUS) and Canada. Data for this free service (very helpful in winter) comes from NCEP's Environmental Modeling Center. The EMC is undergoing a major network upgrade and our storm track maps have been inoperable since last Monday. I'm told NCEP should complete all network and server changes by Monday (10/16), but until then, our storm track maps will be down. Sorry for the inconvenience and hope to be back up and running early next week. More updating at Mid-Atlantic WX.com: I've added some new maps to our awesome Winter StormCenter and as always, invite your comments and suggestions.

And speaking of winter, it's time for one of the most dreadful jobs of the year...sweeping the chimney at my home. Root canal without anesthesia is preferable to this dirty, roof climbing chore! But, it is worth the peace of mind knowing the chance for a chimney fire is greatly reduced. I have my grandfather's old favorite rocking chair and reading a book while sitting by the wood stove on a chilly night is terrific. I just never seem to find the time...but at least everything will be ready if I do!

Next post here at the blog will be tomorrow.

Friday the 13th: Tropics and Snowflakes.
Friday, October 13

You know it is October when discussions include tropical weather and a snowstorm! Unlucky Friday the 13th for folks near Buffalo where nearly two feet of snow piled up in some locations!

TROPICS:
INVEST 90L is a tropical wave located NNE of Puerto Rico. Computer model guidance looks like a giant spider...all over the place, doubtless due to a weak disturbance experiencing heavy wind shear. It is likely the wave will drift southwest and attempt to cross The Blade (Hispaniola). As such, this wave will not develop however will continue producing rain in the vicinity of Puerto Rico and the island of Hispaniola.

INVEST 91L is a new area of investigation located at 13° North in the Central Atlantic. This wave will move west and continue to experience wind shear. There is no model support for this Invest to reach tropical depression strength.

WHAT THE??? Unusual southwest-northeast Lake Effect Snows bury areas around Buffalo with one to two feet accumulating overnight. Usually, heavy LES falls to the southeast of the Lakes and can reach the Alleghany Mountains, but strong westerly winds pushed chilly winds straight across Lake Erie, dumping historic early season totals near Buffalo. You can see the snowy web cam by clicking HERE.

Our snowfall map updates at Noon daily so you'll be able to see where the white stuff has accumulated by visiting our national snowfall map HERE.

This storm has pushed the very potent Cold Front across the eastern and central US allowing by far the coldest air of the season to tumble temps and put an end to the growing season for much of the region. This frontal boundary produced severe weather last Tuesday and Wednesday. In fact, it nearly took out our weather station in Lexington, VA! A cluster of storms came up the eastern slope of the Alleghenies and crossed the Shenandoah Valley before 11PM on Wednesday. Here's the 11PM METAR report from our weather station:

KVALEXIN 120300Z 29025G153KT 3SM OVC 16/14 A2965 RMK TSRA

We were treated to a vivid display of white and pink lightning as a very close CG (cloud-to-ground) strike sent a huge static discharge through our weather station cables. The strike was so close that it discharged enough electricity to "convince" our weather station the wind was gusting to 153 knots! It took several minutes to reset the instruments but fortunately we experienced no lightning damage...this time. While our weather station and computers have excellent surge suppression, nothing will keep all lightning out of equipment. This thunderstorm produced .66 inches of rain in 25 minutes...pretty good for a late night storm in October ;)

Next update here at the blog will be on Sunday unless things get interesting in the tropics.

Invest 90L, Inland Storms Precede Coming Cold and Off-Topic Perspective.
Wednesday, October 11

TROPICS: Invest 90L located east of the Windward Islands is tiny, weak and not organized. Tropical computer models did not initialize at 18Z for the Invest...not a sign of pending development. The numerical models (particularly the GFS, UKMET and NOGAPS) all keep the disturbance alive for a couple of days before falling prey to increasing wind shear. The system should track northwest, producing heavy rains over the Lesser Antilles. Should the Invest remain intact and interact with a trof to the northwest there could be stormy weather across Puerto Rico. Despite the GFDL and SHIPs models bringing this to a strong tropical storm, no significant development is anticipated from this tropical wave.

INLAND: Twin Cold Fronts pushing across the Lakes, Mississippi and Tennessee Valley will continue to trigger thunderstorms and isolated severe weather. This frontal complex is associated with the season's first winter storm crossing Canada, north of the Great Lakes. Behind the fronts, much colder air will stream into the central and eastern US...temps on Friday may be as much as 15-20 degrees lower than today! Computer models depict an area of Low Pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast finally scooting up to the Gulf of Maine brining rain and gusty winds to the New England coast on Thursday.

The biggest features of this approaching system will be much colder air and sub-freezing temperatures from the Central and Upper Plains east into the Ohio Valley early Friday morning. Frost on the pumpkin! Check out the forecast low temperatures for Thursday night:

OFF-TOPIC: This has not been a good week to be a New York Yankees fan; something I've called myself with pride for four decades. It was just 96 hours ago my son and I were watching the Yankees collapse in the ALDS when Cory Lidle came on in relief of Jaret Wright. During the game I told my son "this bum" won't get anyone out and the Yanks are sunk. How embarrassingly small I now feel after we learn the plane that hit a Manhattan highrise this afternoon was flown by Cory Lidle.

Did weather play a factor in the incident? I am not a pilot, however several years ago a good friend was killed when he flew his plane into the Blue Ridge Mountains in weather that was marginally VFR/IFR, so I've tried to learn more about the subject. All reports indicate pilots were under Visual Flight Rules in the NYC Metro at the time of this afternoon's crash. I heard a report on ESPN the plane was "sideways"; that would not be caused by weather as there was negligible wind. We probably will learn the cause of this terrible accident in due time. Meanwhile, this serves as another tragedy that puts things into painful perspective. Funny thing about us Yankees fans: baseball is life. But this terrible story reminds us it is not. Cory Lidle leaves a wife and six year old son. That is life.

Carolina Coastal Storm Won't Develop, Inland Storm And Off Topic.
Monday, October 9

TROPICS: Invest 99L meekly has come and gone. The blob off the Carolina coast that produced flooding over NC and Virginia this weekend is expected to pull away to the Northeast...no development anticipated. There is an unconfirmed report of a tornado near Bluffton, SC yesterday. As this pest pulls away, conditions along the southeast and Mid-Atlantic coast will improve. The hurricane capital of the world (Canadian Maritimes) could see more rain from this system if it holds together in some fashion over the next three-four days. Wind shear and steering remain harsh and I find nothing to point to in the way of tropical development at this time.

INLAND: High Pressure over the High Plains will interact with Low Pressure coming from the Desert Southwest to produce a fairly decent storm complex this week. The Low will swing from Four Corners up through TX/OK, pumping warm moist air into the cold High...snow is expected in portions of CO, ID and WY, especially along the eastern slopes of the Rockies. The storm then tracks toward the Great Lakes with a boundary dividing cool air to the west from warmer air to the southeast...setting the stage for thunderstorms along the frontal boundary through Wednesday. Keep tabs on this developing storm by visiting our Severe WeatherCenter.

OFF-TOPIC: After some searching, I found one seismograph from Japan depicting activity yesterday:

While the timing appears off, it is interesting to see how science plays a role in politics and world events.

Finally, not sure how many more emails I can endure about the "Motown Meltdown" of my beloved New York Yankees! Most are all in good fun but sheesh! I know my team folded (again) like a house of cards!!! I've always remembered a quote from Wade Boggs when he was with the Red Sox: "losing hurts more than winning feels good". Oh well, Opening Day is less than six months away!

Invest 99L and "OBX storm" Off The Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Friday, October 6

A look at the current satellite tells the tale!

Invest 99L:Low Pressure due east of Jacksonville, FL and SW of Bermuda is now "Invest 99L". This system will track NNE and NE...west of Bermuda...but still producing stormy weather for the island before turning east and out-to-sea. Invest 99L will not threaten the US. Winds may reach tropical depression status however the season's unceasing wind shear is expected to hinder any development.

OBX Storm: Low Pressure east of the Outer Banks is now organizing and will crank up to a decent "Nor'easter" type storm this weekend. At Buoy 44004/east of Cape May, NJ, winds are gusting to near 40MPH while sea level pressure is steady so this storm will likely produce quite strong winds and high seas as it gets organized and drifts southeast. Six to twelve foot waves should be expected from Nags Head up to the Hamptons on Long Island...noticeable swells will also reach Cape Cod by Sunday. Visit our Severe WeatherCenter and you'll see the target zone for heavy rain. Rainfall approaching three inches should be common along the Delmarva, coastal VA (Norfolk/VAB) and northeastern NC area. Here's our 24 hour rainfall forecast map (click map for more graphics):

Nagging rain continues inland over the Mid-Atlantic as an Upper Low is rotating down across WV/VA will be the focus for another slug of moderate to heavy rain in the region. Our weather station in Lexington, VA has recorded nearly three inches of rain in the last 24 hours...with more to come! Most of the Mid-Atlantic States will see at least a period of moderate rain today as winds shift out of the east (never a good thing!). Note the flood watches outlined at our Severe WeatherCenter...localized flooding is possible through Saturday night.

Much cooler air filters down into the US as evidenced by Frost and Freeze Warnings over Upstate NY, VT and the Northern Tier of PA. Can the season's first flurries be far behind?

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