Scott's Sept 2006 Blog

Mid-Atlantic Radar

Scott's September, 2006 Blog

Tropical Tranquility and Continental Cool Down.
Friday, September 29

Despite a named storm and an Invest lurking off Puerto Rico, there is very little to discuss in the tropics today.

Isaac: TD Nine became Tropical Storm Isaac on Wednesday and will in all liklehood join the "Fish Club". The cyclone is small and rather unimpressive, owing to a combination of wind shear and dry air. I can offer nothing more than the recent NHC Discussions on this storm. The storm has shifted slightly west and Isaac could be yet another close call for Newfoundland (the 2006 hurricane Capital of the world!).

Invest 97L: Like big brother Isaac, the disturbance is weak and not expected to develop into a tropical storm. There's plenty of rain associated with the wave and several tropical models point toward the Bahamas, the GFS and UKMET models still pooh-pooh much strengthening; while I hug no model, I'm in their camp and doubt there will be significant intensification.

Cooling down. Temperature today is 15 degrees below normal at our WeatherCenter here in beautiful Virginia. The expansive Cold Front off the East Coast (helping to keeps storms well off-shore) has ushered in very cool air from Canada. Another trof will scoot through the Mid-Atlantic late Saturday into Sunday bringing precipitation back into the region. Moderating and slightly above normal temps return next week...but we'll be keeping our eyes on the Gulf of Mexico, where there could be something bubbling up!

I hope to go camping this weekend (chilly sleeping bag!), and will be back here next week.

Tropical Depression Nine Forms Over Atlantic (same old, same old).
Wednesday, September 27

Invest 96L has become better organized today due to lessening wind shear and will be T.D Nine at 5PM EDT today. While Premium Service weather here at Mid-Atlantic WX.com has been tracking this wave for several days, graphics and data should be at our HurricaneCenter after 5PM EDT so check there for the latest.

"Same old story, same old song and dance" with this new storm: a general NW heading before the next trof sweeps off the US and recurves the tropical cyclone away from land. Too soon to be precise about Bermuda but all indications are this will head north well east of the island and will pose no direct threat.

A wave ENE of the Lesser Antilles will move west and produce rain and storms across the British Virgin Islands to Puerto Rico but no development is expected. There is also some model support for a "sneak attack" well off the Outer Banks of North Carolina, where Low Pressure might develop and shoot northeast away from land. I continue to marvel how quiet it is right now in the Gulf of Mexico.

Wow! Typhoon Xangsane goes from a tropical storm to a Cat-4 in one day...while crossing the Philippines! The storm has been greatly disrupted today by interaction with land but has been an explosive tropical cyclone. After banging across the islands, Xangsane should reintensify over water. This has been a very impressive Western Pacific typhoon.

NOLA...We Salute You!
Monday, September 25

Not much to discuss tonight. Thankfully the severe threat over the Eastern US largely failed to materialize with fewer than ten damage reports regionally. In the tropics, Invest 96L continues to struggle with most models giving up on the disturbance due to sustained wind shear. I've never been excited about this system and while it could become a Tropical Depression, it will head northwest toward Bermuda...but...in all likelihood be swept away ala Florence, Gordon and Helene. I can draw your attention to no other tropical feature over the next couple of days.

I was "IMing" on Saturday with a woman I frequently chat with from New Orleans. Right now, she is somewhere in the throng of exuberance rejoicing inside the newly reopened Superdome. She was also there the last time the Saints played at the Dome...a pre-season game the Friday night that Katrina was taking aim on the Gulf Coast. I was telling her how thrilled I am this game is happening in New Orleans...something thirteen months ago I would not have believed. Friends, she sounded like a kid at Christmas! Tonight is an important symbolic moment for those in and around the Big Easy. My friend, and everyone else in the Dome can, if only for three hours, forget the 24/7 load Katrina still inflicts and celebrate all that is good about New Orleans and the can-do spirit we see along the Gulf Coast. The return of NFL football neither "forgives or forgets" the problems that led to the catastrophe but even this hardened Dallas Cowboys fan is rooting for the home team and their resilient fans. Tonight you can still drive less than ten minutes from the Superdome to see firsthand how horrible things remain in portions of the New Orleans Metro. But for just a moment the hammers and chain saws are idle and NOLA shows America and the world you can bend, but not break. Sure, it is just a building and just a game...but it also is much, much more.

Weaker...But Strong...Storms Hit Eastern US Today...And...
Some Chance For Invest 96L to Become a Tropical Depression.
Sunday, September 24

The storm complex that has produced numerous tornadoes and damage over the previous two days makes progress toward the East Coast today. Here's the large Slight Risk area:

I don't expect an outbreak of tornadoes however the models have a poor handle on the situation. It appears the greatest threat remains north of North Carolina within 100 miles of the coast. Biggest threat remains thunderstorms with strong winds. Hail is also a concern and isolated rotation or tornadoes is possible, especially from the Delmarva through eastern Virginia and North Carolina. Outdoor activities in the Slight Risk area should have safe haven indoor alternatives today. Please visit our Severe WeatherCenter for current information.

TROPICS: Helene is now extratropical and accelerating away and weakening...chalk up another fish storm.

Invest 96L continues trying to organize. This morning's QuickSCAT pass shows low level circulation; however most wind barbs indicate speeds below 20 knots.

Wind shear from the south and southwest isn't strong but is hampering development. While a pesky little disturbance, I remain bullish this will not threaten the Islands or the US. The QuickSCAT shows we have a Low and now we see if it holds so winds and storms can wrap around the center. A couple models do so and track NNW before turning west in response to building High Pressure. Even with this, heights should be lower off the US east coast and anything that does develop tracks away from the US.

Lest we forget, Hurricane Rita made landfall one year ago today.

I've got my vehicle ready for chasing and if possible, will have an update here later today.

Furious Friday Precedes Severe Saturday!
Saturday, September 23

The anticipated severe weather episode on Friday produced 36 unconfirmed tornado reports on Friday. Tornadoes spun down as far south as North-Central Alabama. Here's a Friday evening textbook image of a Supercell with wall cloud:

Image from JamesSpann.com

This Supercell was located in Blount County, Alabama where injuries and moderate damage has been reported. Scary to read there appears to be tornadic damage at a nearby high school football field...the team had an away game on Friday! As this is written (1:30AM), three Tornado Watches remain in effect from Oklahoma to Kentucky. Tornado Warnings also continue demonstrating this is is a powerful line of storms. Current Watches and Warnings HERE.

Flash flooding is now a possibility from W. KY to S. OH as storms train along a similar path. Folks in these areas should remain alert for potential flash flood information.

Later Saturday the severe threat migrates along the Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valley up into the Ohio Valley. Severe storms should be less numerous but strong storms and damaging winds may be accompanied by flash flooding and tornadoes. Outdoor plans may well be impacted by this weather episode and therefore any scheduled activities in these areas should have indoor alternatives.

There remains a Slight Risk for severe weather on Sunday from Portsmouth, NH to Charlottesville, VA...including the major cities along and near the I-95 corridor. At this time, it is unlikely tornadoes will make it this far east.

No changes in the tropics. I'll have an update later this morning on the tropics and this continuing severe weather outbreak. Have a good night.

UPDATE, 11:40 AM: Moderate Risk of strong storms and more tornadoes today. Rain and clouds will tamp done some activity although severe weather is anticipated from NE AK into western TN/KY. Strong storms also probable into the Ohio Valley while flooding is an issue along a stripe from AK through KY and into lower OH. Here's the current 24 hour rainfall forecast map (click map for more graphics):

The Jet Stream is wailing over the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley...while lower level winds are coming up from the Gulf out of the Southwest. This enhances rotation in the lower levels (somewhat similar to wind shear we frequently discuss in the tropics). While winds changing direction with height hurts tropical cyclones, it helps develop rotation in strong thunderstorms and this is why dangerous tornadoes are forecast again today.

The Lower Lakes may see convective storms fire up today, producing hail, strong winds and heavy rain. Tornadoes are less likely, but possible. Keep an eye on the latest at our Severe WeatherCenter.

The Cold Front will cross the Mid-Atlantic with a fairly strong squall line ahead of the boundary late Sunday morning. Storms are expected but will weaken over the mountains before firing up anew east of the Blue Ridge. Hail and damaging winds are possible but any tornadic threat will be limited and isolated.

TROPICS: Helene back to a Cat-1 hurricane. No changes in track, INVEST 96L is very weak (winds 23-25MPH). It appears the Low may be reforming to the Northeast but it probably does not matter as computer models generally take the disturbance Northwest. I remain skeptical this becomes a named storm and most doubtful it will threaten the Islands or the US.

I'll have another blog later today if warranted, otherwise, I'll be back on Sunday.

Helene and Hellacious Weather in Mid-Mississippi Valley.
Friday, September 22

HELENE: The storm remains a Cat-1 hurricane today and is accelerating on a NNE recurve well east of Bermuda. Helene will become extratropical and could sustain very strong winds as it tracks Southeast of Iceland (yes, Iceland!). Aside from large off-shore swells and some higher than normal seas from Eastport, Maine down to Hilton Head Island, SC, it's "Hakuna Matata" for Helene.

INVEST 96L: Remains a large, disorganized "blob" with very weak circulation. If this survives it will take time and High Pressure Ridging should be sufficiently east to recurve any development away from the Islands and US before reaching 60° West.

Nothing else brewing, although the GFS model is trying to spin-up a Southeast US/Mid-Atlantic Sneak Attack later next week.

SEVERE OUTBREAK POSSIBLE! There is a Moderate Risk of severe storms today from Eastern OK through Illinois. There is potential for several strong long-lived tornadoes! Chilly cold air streaming in with Low Pressure over the Upper Plains is clashing with tropical air coming up from the Gulf...this is the typical scenario for tornado's "Second Season". Along with the tornadic threat, very strong thunderstorms with damaging wind downbursts will continue this afternoon and into early Saturday. Severe weather that should include more Supercells shifts east tomorrow into the Great Lakes, Ohio and western Tennessee Valleys. On Sunday, the weakening threat for severe storms moves to lower New England, Downstate NY and the Mid-Atlantic north of the I-64 corridor.

There is potential today for very strong tornadoes and persons in the Moderate Risk area must remain alert and be prepared in the event severe weather approaches. You can get the latest information along with your local forecast and warnings at our Severe WeatherCenter.

Mid-Atlantic WX.com offers an awesome selection of cool tools for tracking severe weather. At the Severe WeatherCenter you can check the latest storm reports and well as our Severe Weather "Pop-UP" window which displays Radar, Watches, Warnings, interactive warning text and other links. Advanced users enjoy the current Mesoscale Discussions and graphics HERE.

I'll be back by Saturday Noon with another update...sooner if conditions warrant with today's severe episode.

"Do Everything, Turn, Turn, Turn..."
Thursday, September 21

For most of the summer and early fall these blogs and the email Updates are focused on the tropics and hurricanes. In late September, the seasons are turning and comments here begin shifting north with the cooler weather. To be sure, we'll discuss the tropics, however, attention is paid not just to tropical cyclones, but the Polar Vortex as well.

GORDON: It appears as though the eye of the weakening hurricane actually did cross the Azores, so this technically counts as a landfall. But Gordon will be remembered as a recurving fish storm that is producing rough weather from Portugal to Ireland. The storm was officially dropped on Wednesday.

HELENE: The hurricane has weakened to a Cat-1 and will steer-clear of Bermuda. For over a week we've discussed how a trof of Low Pressure will deflect the storm to the north and you can see this happening by clicking HERE for the current satellite loop. Note the line of clouds west of Helene and you'll see how a trof kicks a storm away from the US. This tropical cyclone has tracked about as well as one can ask for a major hurricane to threaten no land mass. After 2005, we deserve a break and got one!

INVEST 96L: This is a sloppy, ill-defined wave southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Yesterday, the models were jumping all over this system and became Invest 96L...but last night and today one sees no low level circulation. Some development is possible as the wave moves in a general WNW direction.

There is an unending stream of waves rolling off Africa however "CV" Season is winding down. We'll continue to monitor and if the Invest survives it will become Tropical Depression Nine. The next name is "Isaac".

Heading back up to the US...the Cold Front mentioned in Gordon's discussion has pushed well off-shore after ushering in regional temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below normal yesterday. High Pressure is now building in behind the front and patchy frost can be expected across the Mid-Atlantic mountain areas while more widespread frost will settle in overnight in Upstate New York and inland New England.

A series of storms will be chugging across the Southwest and Plains over the next several days bringing bouts of severe weather to those locations. Rain and thunderstorms should advance toward the eastern US this weekend. Right now I believe there's a chance for strong storms to reach the Ohio Valley on Sunday (as outlined by the SPC's 3 day outlook). A windy rain event with embedded storms could cross the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic on Monday as the active weather pattern evolves with the changing seasons this weekend.

This blog was intended for last night however I fell asleep in my office. I was listening to the New York Yankees game on the Internet (yes, they won the AL East for the 10th straight year!) while working on this post, but awoke in my chair at 2:20AM. Ouch...my neck is now killing me! It has been an extremely tedious several days, but as long as there's weather, the blogs will roll on.

Barring anything spinning up with Invest 96L, next post will be Friday morning.

Three Storms, Two Hurricanes, One Percent Chance Any Hit the US.
Sunday, September 17

GORDON: Still a hurricane but finally on the wane. Perhaps a bit of a blow coming to Ireland but, like Florence, Gordon will score as a fish storm. Not much more to add.

HELENE: Despite some inconsistencies in today's data, Helene remains a growing hurricane, both in size and in intensity. The hurricane is tracking Northwest around High Pressure Ridging and will continue on this track until the Ridge builds back in and steers Helene more to the West. While this may appear on satellite as somewhat intimidating to Florida and US East Coast, there is virtually no chance the hurricane continues heading west. Click HERE for the 48 hour forecast map and you'll see the reason. A strong Cold Front will be crossing the Eastern US this week and as the trof moves off shore the tropical cyclone should be scooped-up and turned North then Northeast. Timing is everything and while it appears Helene's recurve will be underway east of Bermuda...it could be a close call (again). I will admit to being conflicted and am resistant to "honking" Helene is a fish. For one thing, the last tropical cyclone I had confidence in 72 hour computer modeling was Hurricane Katrina. For a variety or reasons (some I admit not fully understanding) model output has been more unreliable than usual. The model spray with Helene is south of Bermuda to SE of Newfoundland. Ummm, I just don't think they all can verify! My other concern is some key models (UKMET, NOGAPS and to a lesser degree, the GFS) keep pushing Helene west or even WSW while the NHC and numerous models are heading NW. I don't like that. So, we are not done with this hurricane, despite the strong belief it will not threaten the Mainland US. Bermuda must be bumming because....there is a chance.

INVEST 95L: Low Pressure due east of the North Carolina Outer Banks is another of those wannabe "sneak attack" storms. This weak Low is associated with an Upper Level Low...seen HERE on our animated Water Vapor Loop. This is no threat to the Mid-Atlantic; coastal winds are now subsiding as the Low shifts east. A curiosity but not a worry.

Bad timing but I have a conference to attend and my next blog will be on Wednesday, September 20.

Hurricane Helene This Weekend.
Saturday, September 16

Tropical Storm Helene on Saturday morning is close to hurricane strength with 70MPH winds. The storm is still trying to wrap deep convection fully around the center and should become a Cat-1 hurricane by Sunday morning. She continues moving WNW around the southwest Ridge over the Atlantic; this motion is expected to continue through Monday morning.

Some of the computer models are getting antsy about the long range track (particularly the GFS) and now hint a strong Ridge will keep Helene on a West or WNW track over five days. Interestingly, the last two GFS runs suggest no weakness in the Ridge and Helene shifts WSW before feeling the effect of a mid-week trof of Low Pressure off the US coast. This idea was presented here in a previous blog, and I believe this remains a slight option. Another trof will cross the Eastern US (bringing a real taste of Fall) and should extend further south, ultimately pulling the storm more to the Northwest and then recurving away from the US. That's the thinking right now and such a track could bring what I fully expect to be a Cat-3 hurricane up near Bermuda.

When one looks at history and the anticipated weather pattern next week, landfall along the US East Coast seems highly unlikely, but I certainly would not declare Helene a fish storm at this time!

A Big Blow, A Fish and A Question Mark.
Wednesday, September 13

Florence is now the type of storm I loved while living in Portland, Maine. Big extratropical storm producing near hurricane force winds offshore pushing dandy swells all the way to the coast. What fun it was to sit on the rocks at Portland Head, Two Lights or "The Nubble" (my favorite place on Earth) and take in the show. Florence still is producing sustained winds above 50MPH with hurricane gusts...very impressive. The remnant cyclone is skirting Newfoundland and goes in the books as a "fish storm" as the eye did not cross Bermuda or the Maritimes.

Gordon is now a growing hurricane and will likewise be a fish. Not much more to add given the Cat-1 is tracking north in the middle of the Atlantic and will recurve while weakening Friday and this weekend.

Tropical Depression Eight. With the exception of Gordon, every tropical cyclone this season has battled wind shear and/or dry air; TD Eight is no exception. Recall yesterday's blog that discussed the storm will probably eat some dry air...that is happening today as show in the current water vapor image:

Dry air intrusion coupled with modest wind shear is hampering TD Eight's bid to become "Helene". Many computer models along with the NHC forecast the storm to organize in the next 48 hours under slightly more favorable conditions. NHC brings the storm to a hurricane by Sunday evening.

Track guidance looks good and the storm will head in a generally WNW direction once an actual LLC forms...this could happen tomorrow. Looking at the forecast "cone" at our HurricaneCenter, you might think this too will be a fish storm. Not so fast! I'm leaning toward the idea that High Pressure Ridging continues to build and expand over the Atlantic next week after a trof comes down and pulls TD Eight/Helene up to the northwest. Does this scenario drill the storm into the US? Absolutely not...but this storm probably hits Cat-2 status (at least) and may possibly track further west than did Florence or Gordon. So, we have many questions to answer about strength and track with this pending hurricane.

I am again on the road this afternoon and evening (oooooooh...I'm drivin' my life away...) and this probably will be the only blog for today.

Tuesday Trifecta !
And...please try to follow along with Jerry Springer and me.
Tuesday, September 12

Three storms to discuss today:

Florence: Highest wind gust I've seen from Bermuda yesterday was 110MPH (borderline Cat-3). Sustained winds observed were in the 80-85MPH range (Cat-1). Florence is becoming Extratropical today but remains forecast to hold hurricane status until ~44° North...roughly the same latitude as Bangor, Maine! Swells still rolling in along the East Coast as the storm continues on a heading that brings Florence close or just SE of Newfoundland on Wednesday night. Seventeen foot swells at Georges Bank (Buoy 44011). Tropical storm force winds will prevail along her path and will arrive tomorrow at Newfoundand. I've been in the Maritmes to observe remnant tropical systems crash in...wow!

Gordon: The tropical storm, forecast to become a Cat-1 hurricane remains impressive and is a "fish storm". Gordy follows Flo in the same trof complex and can not go anywhere bur north. As opined here yesterday, Gordon will not pose a threat to Bermuda.

Tropical Depression Eight: From a wave to an "Invest" to a Tropical Depression in 18 hours! T.D. Eight is currently tracking west and should become Helene two days. Current enhanced view:

This image shows a trail of dry air rotating into the storm from the north and west (click the image for current water vapor view). I'd suspect this will slow down TD 8's intensification over the next day or so. At present, there's good reason to ride along with computer models depicting a western heading before the storm starts lifting more to the WNW. This storm is developing in "Hugoland"; very near where Hugo started to crank up. I mention this because the GFS model is suggesting strong Ridging could keep this storm on a westerly track...further than Florence and Gordon. I'm certainly not forecasting this is going to hit the US but will note conditions downstream *could* increase the opportunity for this storm to get closer to the Caribbean and the US. We're running model maps on all features in our Premium Service weather section and all three storms are online at the HurricaneCenter.

I never watch daytime TV but Jerry Springer was on in the office today. Here's how it went and see if you can follow along without duct taping your head. Boyfriend in jail. Girlfriend goes to visit and is herself tossed into slammer on a warrant. Boyfriend is released but shacks up with girlfriend's friend...forgetting to bail out his girlfriend who remains in jail. Girlfriend is irked at being left in the slammer and calls her brother who comes post bail. We now discover the girlfriend's friend (who spent weekend with the just released from jail boyfriend) is really the girlfriend to the brother of her girlfriend in jail. He is now mad at his girlfriend because she is sleeping with his sister's boyfriend. Big fight ensues as the bleeps are hurled at one another with gusto. And people wonder what's wrong with America???

Florence Flogs Bermuda...T.D Seven a Likely Fish Storm...and...
September 11.
Monday, September 11

Florence has been raking Bermuda with prolific rains and Cat-1 winds. The hurricane is passing "inside" (west) of the island and the eyewall has partially deteriorated. No changes to track and wave height ideas previously presented here. Florence will weaken and is expected to be a near miss for Newfoundland later this week. Folks along the US East Coast are again reminded there will be high seas and swells over the next several days.

"Son of Florence/Invest 91L then Invest 93L" is now Tropical Depression Seven. It is likely this becomes Tropical Storm Gordon as soon as tonight. Florence has actually promoted somewhat better conditions for T.D Seven and I believe this storm will not threaten the Caribbean, Florida or the Southeastern US. The NHC's "cone of probability" is well reasoned given this week's expected synoptic weather and the storm should recurve along a path similar to that taken by Florence. There is a possibility this could be a one-two punch for Bermuda! Hurricane Hunters will investigate Tropical Depression Seven this afternoon. Graphics and data for Flo and T.D Seven are available at our HurricaneCenter.

The night of September 11, 2001, Tropical Depression Eight/Gabrielle formed in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. I well recall the difficulty of doing model maps and writing a WeatherCenter email Update while watching the day's horrific events on TV. At that time a total aviation "ground stop" was in effect, and in the days following September 11 the Hurricane Hunters were the only non-combat military aircraft permitted in US air space. The flights were escorted by Navy fighters that remained airborne outside of Gabrielle's cyclonic winds. It is easy to understand why we've forgotten a very large hurricane was off the east coast of the US on 9/11...that hurricane was named Erin and this satellite view of the hurricane also captured the image of smoke rising from the World Trade Center towers (click thumbnail to enlarge):

Three years ago, on September 11, 2003, Isabel became a Category-5 hurricane. September 11, 2004 Hurricane Ivan reached Cat-4 status and skirted around Jamaica. And on September 11, 2005, hurricane watches were discontinued along the Carolina coast and were replaced with tropical storm warnings as Ophelia approached the US.

Another update this evening if T.D Seven is upgraded to "Gordon".

UPDATE, 11:10 PM: Tropical Depression Seven cranked up nicely this afternoon and evening and is now Gordon. The good news is it certainly looks like Gordon is a No-Go to Bermuda. Good thing because it already appears we have Central Dense Overcast (CDO)...indicating tight rain bands around an organizing eye. In fact, Gordon has much less resistance than did Florence and is responding favorably to improved conditions. Currently sporting 60MPH winds, there is little reason to not believe the storm will become the third hurricane of the season. Computer guidance continues to "fish" the storm and recurve should develop soon enough to keep the tropical cyclone well east of Bermuda.

Summing up...Bermuda dodges a bullet with moderate impact from Florence's near hit, but glancing blow. Gordon will recurve and not threaten the Caribbean, Bahamas, Bermuda or the US.

All for now. Have a good night.

Florence Aims At Bermuda...and...
A STRONG Earthquake In The Gulf Of Mexico!
Sunday, September 10

Florence reached hurricane status early this morning and has spawned an expansive eye seen below in the image taken at 2:00PM EDT:

As suggested here for the last couple days, Bermuda should take a direct or very near hit from a Category-2 hurricane. Yesterday's web cam link is down but here's one from Bermuda that still is updating images:

Click HERE for the Bermuda Weather Service and current weather conditions the Airport. At 1PM EDT winds were 30MPH gusting to 38MPH with showers. That link, BTW, will also provide Radar from the island. Along with heavy rain Bermuda will see waves exceeding 20' along with damaging storm surge.

No other changes to forecast track as Florence will track NNW before recurving...still a strong possibility of a Newfoundland landfall or very near miss. Because the tropical storm force wind field is so large, this storm will push swells along the entire eastern seaboard...particularly from Myrtle Beach, SC to Cape Cod. Coastline facing to the SE will see even higher seas as swells continue to push over shallow water along the coast. Even the Gulf of Maine will see swells and the southern Maritimes coast should be on the lookout for very high seas as Florence moves north.

INVEST 93L to the SE of Florence continues to show circulation and a depression could form in the next day or so. Right now, there's no credible reason to believe Invest 93L will track anywhere other than a similar path as Florence (another Bermuda hit?).

Models remain ga-ga over a couple waves coming off Africa but Scott's rule remains in effect: not much discussion here until 30 hours of sustained convection with circulation.

EARTHQUAKE! Wow! A "strong" 6.0 earthquake occurred before 11AM EDT in the Gulf of Mexico, or about 260 miles WSW of Clearwater, FL. Too weak for a tsunami but felt throughout the region. You can visit the USGS information on this quake by clicking HERE. I've never experienced anything above a very small quake but do recall an experience in Maine when I was driving down I-295 and felt the car pitch up and down (similar to driving over frost heaves). A short time later, I put on WBZ Radio where there was "breaking news" about an earthquake in New Hampshire. Folks along the East Coast just have no idea what an earthquake is really like...and I don't mind keeping it that way!
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Florence Finally Firing Up...Fish Storm For US...and...
Happy Anniversary!
Saturday, September 9

If Florence is not a hurricane this morning, she will be by this evening as the storm is now behaving as widely forecast. Current view below:

Overnight, Hurricane Hunters "fixed" the storm slightly south but this will have little impact on the future track of the hurricane. Hurricane Hunters return this afternoon and we'll get a good look at where and how strong she is...I'd imagine we'll have a hurricane this afternoon at 5PM, if not at a 2PM Intermediate Advisory. BTW, if you visit our exclusive Recon Page, you'll be able to see data coming in from the reconnaissance flight.

Convection remains a little displaced and there is no organized eye at this time, but conditions are all favorable and Florence should take advantage by growing to a Cat-2. Watches and warnings are in effect for Bermuda and this island should take a near hit from the hurricane. It is not unreasonable to consider Florence could be an expansive Cat-3 as she nears Bermuda!

No changes in the reasoning behind her forecast path: Florence will continue tracking along the southwest and western edge of High Pressure over the Atlantic. The Ridge migrates ESE in response to a trof crossing the Eastern US and moving off-shore. Florence will miss the US but kick up swells from Florida through the Mid-Atlantic coast as she turns poleward and eventually NE. The then weakening cyclone may crash into or near miss Newfoundland next week.

Elsewhere, the former "Son of Florence" (Invest 91L) has popped up again, this time as Invest 93L. The wave is in Florence's wake and probably will be blown to bits (again). Any development will track NW before recurving. Right now a case can't be made for this wave to sneak under the trof and track west toward the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Off Topic: Happy Anniversary to the original (real) Star Trek TV series. I am one of the original "Trekkers" which is contrasted from a "Trekkie"; someone who wears a costume and believes they are actually in a Star Trek episode. Over the years, I've met most of the show's original cast and had dinner with the late Gene Roddenberry...fascinating! In a strange twist of fate, I was in the Men's Room at the Virginia Horse Center here in Lexington, Virginia when William Shatner walked in. Most guys do not like rest room chit-chat, so I can't say I've met the famous Capt. Kirk. Star Trek returns to the small screen on TV Land this Fall and new HD versions of the original episodes will debut this month. Somewhere, I have a plastic Communicator from a box of Corn Flakes and I bet I'd make a bundle with that on eBay!

UPDATE, 8:40 PM: It is worth noting several computer models are trending west along the left edge of the NHC "cone of possibility". It will be interesting to see if NHC shifts the track slightly west at 11PM or 5AM on Sunday. This feature will not affect the US but could pull Florence closer to Newfoundland. Florence remains a tropical storm...in fact she weakened a little this afternoon. If the storm follows previous trends, she'll strengthen somewhat again this evening (Diurnal Maxima) and we may have a barely Cat-1 hurricane tonight or tomorrow morning. Good news for Bermuda, where a very close pass should be seen within 36 hours but Florence may not become a Cat-2 or Cat-3. BTW, here's an excellent web cam site from Bermuda: http://66.55.123.26/home/homeJ.html . This site features totally interactive web cams that you control. I saved this web cam image from this afternoon:

Certainly won't be postcard pretty on Sunday, but have a look.

I can find nothing to suggest there's an eye in there but convection continues around the low level center. At this point, I must conclude wind shear of 10-20 knots is still hampering Florence from cranking up as everyone has advertised for days. I feel like a little boy who has waited so long for Christmas, that if and when it ever arrives it will almost be anti-climatic! I am saving wind shear analysis maps for Florence and hope this is a learning experience because while her track has been very well forecast, intensity has been simply terrible. This on the heels of Ernesto...the storm I struck out more than A-Rod!

Despite terrible performance thus far, the forecast remains unchanged: outflow from the storm looks much better this evening and Florence will become a hurricane. Maybe even before Christmas!

"Same Old Song And Dance"
Friday, September 8

Today's headline comes from the title of a great old Aerosmith song from the "Get Your Wings" album and sums up (still) Tropical Storm Florence.

You can almost feel the angst in this snip from the NHC 11AM Discussion: "THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO FIND...BUT THERE MUST BE ONE GIVEN THE LARGE AND WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION OF THE STORM." Florence frustrates forecasters! Computer guidance, the NHC (and I) continue to forecast strengthening as the storm feels less impact of the pesky wind shear induced by the nearby Upper Low. For this reason, I am staying with Florence becoming a hurricane...and a large one at that. Tropical storm winds now extend out 450 miles demonstrating the tremendous fetch of the storm. Other than this mornings satellite imagery suggesting Florence is finally getting organized, there is little new to report today.

The tropical cyclone still is forecast to become a hurricane this weekend tracking close to Bermuda (a watch or warning is anticipated today) and then begin to recurve away from the US. Nova Scotia, Sable Island and Newfoundland certainly need to watch Florence as the storm will generate huge seas and still have an expansive wind field later next week.

Otherwise, Invest 91 and Invest 92 are dropped...the stalled out front off the Carolinas should spin up another Low Pressure area but this will not be tropical in nature. Computer models still cranking up waves off Africa, but I never get worked up over these until they can sustain at least 36 hours of convection.

Barring an unexpected change, this will be the only blog today; keep an eye on Fledgling Flo at the
Mid-Atlantic WX.com HurricaneCenter.

Comings and Goings.
Thursday, September 7

This weekend marks the "climatological peak" of hurricane season so it makes sense you need a scorecard to keep track of all the storms coming and going.

FLORENCE. Current winds are 50MPH. The cyclone continues being pelted with wind shear and the COC (center of circulation) again is exposed. My hunch is we may see another jump in the center's location, in effect shifting the forecast track later today. The storm needs another 24-36 hours and presuming it survives...watch out! Florence then should begin a steady intensification process, bringing her to Cat-2 and possibly Cat-3 status by Sunday evening. Florence is expected to be a large storm with a wide fetch of tropical storm force winds. At this time, the primary risk location is Bermuda but we'll see how long Florence remains on the current WNW track. The anticipated hurricane will then begin a shift more toward the NW in response to the trof previously discussed here that will be crossing the Eastern US. Please note, at no time has the NHC said Florence will miss the United States! While there is growing logic behind how the computer models are handling the forecast weakness in High Pressure Ridging, I remain cautious and advise against calling Flo a "fish storm" (just yet). The Maritimes could take a direct hit and while I'm skeptical the hurricane tracks NW close to New England...nothing is discounted at this time. Florence should grow to become a large and powerful hurricane that must be closely monitored this weekend along the Mid-Atlantic and Eastern US. The NHC also has commented on another trof digging toward the East Coast next week...Florence may have a surprise or two yet.

INVEST 91L. "Son of Florence" wave behind the tropical storm is falling apart due to proximity to Florence. Computer models have failed to initialize the wave since yesterday morning. Probably becoming a non-issue.

INVEST 92L. "Sneak Attack" Low off the Southeast US coast. It's not everyday the Hurricane Hunters fly into a cold core Low along a Frontal Boundary but that was the case last night. Despite being non-tropical, this disturbance could transform as it races off the Outer Banks in the next 24 hours. An interesting event... one that COULD have implications with the future of Florence.

Keep an eye on the Caribbean and the Gulf as well. Keep two eyes on coastal SC where Sneak Attack 2 may be developing.

Overall, the pot is beginning to boil. As Grissom would often say on CSI: "Assume nothing."

VISITOR COMMENTS.

From Richard in Clifton Forge, VA

Scott,
I was wondering about 92L this morning, thought it might have been the remains of the old frontal boundary.
I did not notice any rotation this morning but there seems to be a little in the last frames of the radar loop.
Just let me have good wx this weekend so the Mrs.. and I can enjoy the Blue Angels in Virginia Beach. She has been putting up with me for 33 years this coming Friday.
Take care, Richard aka Red Sox Fan

Scott replies:
Migrating from cold to warm core along a boundary is unusual but not impossible and mariners will certainly see a good chop with 25-30 knot winds off SC. Were this to evolve into a warm core depression, things get might interesting with Florence!

Blue Angels show at VAB is always a treat and it looks like decent wx for the weekend. Enjoy. BTW...Boston is 9 games behind the Yankees ;).

Fishy Florence Fraught With Risk.
Wednesday, September 6

T.D. Six became Florence yesterday with another wave to her East being dubbed "Invest 91L". Forecasters, bloggers and the weather discussion boards are red hot speculating the possibilities but, truth be told, there is very little to discuss this morning. Florence is a large storm with disorganized convection due in large measure to 15-20 knot wind shear. The trof previously discussed has generated an Upper Low that is easily seen shearing Florence by clicking HERE (note the counter clockwise spin to the NW of the storm). As a result, the storm is not becoming more organized...this will change and then it will be "Game On".

It will take time for Florence to wrap convection into the center...possibly 36 hours, so we can expect little wobbles or jogs in the forward motion until the storm begins to tighten up and become better stacked (no Florence is stacked jokes from me!). This may be the reason the storm seems to be tracking slightly south and west of the NHC "black line"; until it is organized, we simply do not know the long range track.

High Pressure should build in and nagging wind shear is forecast to diminish...this will be the opportunity for Florence to begin more serious intensification and a hurricane is nearly universally forecast by the weekend. The forecast is now based on the Ridge steering Florence from the WNW to the NW, and out to sea. There is genuine concern the Ridge over the North Atlantic builds more than currently forecast and Florence continues on a more westerly or WNW track at the same time a trof of Low Pressure crosses the Great Lakes and approaches the Eastern United States. The likely Cat 2 or 3 hurricane could then be handed off to the advancing trof...pulling it toward the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast or the Maritimes. No way of knowing that at the present time so again, most discussion of Florence is speculation.

To sum it up, it is not a given that Florence is a fish storm...one hope so as she'll probably be a major hurricane. The storm remains disorganized but should begin to strengthen over the next two days. Computer models don't have the same level of agreement as was the case yesterday so the long range (over 72 hours) paths must be viewed with particular caution. A sound yet subjective case can be made the tropical cyclone will recurve before hitting the US, but that still remains to be seen. I think it will take at least until Thursday night before we start to see what Florence has in mind. Please visit the HurricaneCenter for real-time information and graphics.

I was unable to post yesterday and apologize to those who were looking for a discussion (or two!). As Maxwell Smart was fond of saying: "Sorry about that, Chief".

UPDATE, 7:35 PM: I've just been advised some in-laws will be stopping by (seems I live very close to Interstate-81), so this will be brief.

FLORENCE: Models coming around today in very good agreement that the storm does two things: it becomes a *major* hurricane and it will recurve well off the US Mid-Atlantic Coast. I agree with the former and am inclined to agree with the latter...however...Florence should be a large Cat-3 this weekend and will be tracking toward the US. This alone keeps me on high alert as things may change (that's not a forecast, just a concern). Despite the ominous intensity forecasts, Florence remains a sloppy storm, but again, you can see this is forecast to change over the next two days.

INVEST 91L: "Son of Florence" is the wave east of Tropical Storm Florence and is now a wreck. Florence has disrupted Invest 91L and we'll watch to see if increasing distance breathes new life into the wave. BTW, a couple models really crank up this system right on the heels of Florence next week.

INVEST 92L: Hurricane Hunters are out off the North Carolina coast investigating a possible "sneak attack". An area of Low Pressure is rapidly scooting up the SE US coast and will track out to sea off the Outer Banks late tomorrow. Current satellite image HERE. This is not tropical, however there is a chance if winds increase we'd have a depression off the Carolinas. This will be monitored and another blog will be posted later this evening, if necessary.

Tropical Depression Six Forecast To Become "Florence".
R.I.P.: Steve Irwin
Monday, September 4

Circulation and thunderstorms continue around Tropical Depression Six, however the storm is far from organized while showing no improvement overnight or this morning. Winds are at 35MPH so the question becomes when, not if, this is "Florence".

No changes to the thinking behind the current forecast track: a trof (slightly visible in the image below) will continue to pull the system generally a touch below NW...this continues until the trof moves away, leaving a piece of energy behind. It's possible this area of low pressure will exert some shear on the storm, slowing development. By late Wednesday, High Pressure builds in and conditions become more favorable for strengthening and the storm should begin moving more to the west or WNW.

Some Global models remain bullish on Florence becoming a strong hurricane, but that is not immediate and so we'll first see if T.D. Six gets pulled together.

Based upon the pending track of the storm, I'll post a discussion on "The Hurricane Benchmark": the location where 60° West intersects with 20° North. This benchmark is very helpful in forecasting if a tropical cyclone will reach the US East Coast and if so, will it be a strong storm. At this time, the NHC forecast takes the cyclone very close to the benchmark...initially indicating a "hit" or near miss is possible. More on this as the storm continues west.

The Invest in the Caribbean is devoid of thunderstorms and has been dropped for the time being. Conversely, models are jumping all over the wave behind (east) of T.D. Six, so this may be our next target. And another dousing on the way for Florida as tropical moisture moves in and will produce locally heavy rain...thunderstorms and coastal waterspouts are also likely. Storms will move up and in with no tropical development.

Current enhanced view of Tropical Depression Six (click image for HurricaneCenter graphics):

Don't think I've ever been called an overly-sensitive guy, but it was with great sadness I learned this morning of the death of Steve Irwin, "The Crocodile Hunter". What a vital and exciting life he led! Very few people do that which they truly love, Steve Irwin did. And, we were the benefactors; he entertained us and taught much about the fascinating world of Zoology. I wonder how many youngsters were enamored by the Croc Hunter and made science their passion and life's ambition. He died with his boots on; surely what he would have wanted.

Tropical Depression Six Forms Over Central Atlantic.
Sunday, September 3

I am on the road attempting to enjoy this beautiful Sunday afternoon in Virginia with my kids, so a more complete blog will be online later tonight.

Invest 90L has become Tropical Depression Six in the central Atlantic. Winds are currently 35MPH and this will become Florence tonight or Monday. This storm is forecast to become a hurricane this week and is expected to track NW and then west in generally favorable conditions. Visit the HurricaneCenter for current info and graphics. I noticed the GFS model this morning brought it up the East Coast as a fish storm, so we'll need to look at this evening's model runs and get a handle on this. Please check back here at the blog tonight for more comments.

UPDATE, 11:20 PM: 11PM NHC forecast/Advisory wisely keeps TD 6 a depression...for now. Thunderstorms appear to be building and should they hold past the typical Diurnal Maxima we will have Florence on Monday.

Track looks to go WNW and then NW (more or less) before turning more westerly. We'll get into the particulars on Monday but this right now seems logical with a trof passing by to pull it up before High Pressure Ridging halts the northern component and the storm heads west. How long and how far remain to be seen. The 18Z GFS shows a nearly identical track to what it had this morning...the 0Z is coming in now but not out to where we can see if it holds the recurve. A comment about the GFS: it has had the "right idea" early with some other storms but has beaten back the Ridge, only to jump west at the last minute. This worries me and declaring Tropical Depression Six a "fish storm" won't happen here right now.

T.D Six is in the general area of Isabel 2003 and Francis 2004, but wannabe Florence should be somewhat north of those storms...we'll see. This system is more than eight days from potential impact on the US and therefore I don't want to hype, but we'll certainly monitor this storm quite closely over the next several days.

Elsewhere, the "blob" entering the Caribbean, well south of Puerto Rico, has lost convection but still deserves a glance in the morning.

Another post late Monday morning. Have a good night and a great Labor (free) Day!

Two New Disturbances To Disturb Labor Day Weekend.
Saturday, September 2

Yesterday, a tropical wave over the Central Atlantic was dubbed "Invest 98L". The wave continues to move to the west but became disorganized last night and is not overly impressive this morning. Any development should be slow to occur as thunderstorms are displaced from the area of circulation. It will continue to be monitored.

The tropical wave crossing the Lesser Antilles became "Invest 99L" this morning. There is a lot of dry, dusty air (SAL) in this area, as evidenced by clicking HERE for the Water Vapor image. If you animate the Water Vapor Loop you'll easily see a trof coming down to the from the Northwest over Cuba. We'll need to see if wind shear from this trof wreaks havoc on the disturbance. Invest 99L is briskly moving west at around 15MPH but needs to maintain convection for a day or so before becoming a genuine threat. This system will be monitored over the weekend. If thunderstorms remain organized, the system could become Tropical Depression Six this weekend.

Models and data on each Invest is available at Premium Service weather.

Happy to report Mid-Atlantic WX.com had an extremely busy August and was able to provide reliable service. According to our web site monitor, the site was accessible 99.842% of the month. Since there were no hurricane hits and the Yankees pulled away from the Boston Red Sox, overall it was a pretty darn good month ;)

Is Ernesto the "Ghost of Gaston"? Let's Hope Not.
Friday, September 1

Ernesto made landfall as described in yesterday's final blog. The debate will now rage as to whether or not it was a hurricane. The remnant storm will pass near Rocky Mount, NC and Richmond, VA before tracking very near Washington, DC and ultimately Buffalo, NY. No changes to the heavy rain target zone (easily visible on radar): NE NC, central-east and Northern VA, Delmarva, MD, southern PA and NJ. The continued northern component of Ernesto's track on Thursday shifted the storm's precipitation shield to the east, so western NC and VA should be spared the heaviest rains...good news as Wednesday night's rains produced some flooding in these areas and raised river and creek levels. Still, along and east of the mountains, periods of heavy rain are possible today as Ernesto's circulation spins up into Virginia. Tornadoes continue to be a threat today for NE NC and eastern VA.

Ernesto's approach track and inland progress are somewhat similar to Gaston's and I've already chatted with folks near Richmond who want no repeat performance today. Gaston was a marginal tropical storm/hurricane (like Ernesto, max winds were around 70MPH). The storm came inland closer to Charleston and recurved out to sea over the Chesapeake; tremendous rainfall and flooding occurred in Richmond and Henrico County, VA stunning forecasters, including yours truly. That 2004 "sneak attack" storm (coincidentally, August 27 through September 1) was poorly handled by nearly everyone. I can tell you that the NHC is not pleased with their performance with Ernesto and I'm unsatisfied with the job I've done as well. When you forecast a Cat 2 or 3 in the western Gulf of Mexico and you get a tropical storm coming into NC, you didn't hit a Grand Slam! One wave over the Atlantic *may* have an opportunity for development, so like in baseball, after you get "rung up", there's always another at bat.

Unless you are located east of Ernesto, you've probably noticed we went from July to October in two days! Check the current Mid-Atlantic temps HERE.

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