Scott's August, 2006 Blog

 

Ernesto is getting organized for one final landfall (number three). Visible satellite:



This morning, the now tropical storm is moving slightly west of the NHC forecast track (yes, one can get dizzy from all the east-west shifts!). This track probably keeps landfall as suggested here previously: Myrtle Beach to Wilmington. It is remotely possible the storm becomes a Cat-1 although I still find that doubtful.

Track remains much the same: up and in near Raleigh and Charlottesville before shifting NW. Some computer models are keeping the storm on a more northerly track...brining it up near the Chesapeake and Metro DC/Baltimore area. Rain totals first guessed at yesterday will be tuned up later but we can expect widespread 6 plus inches totals for northeastern SC, eastern NC/VA and the Delmarva. There will be locations in those areas that see eight to ten inch totals. Two to five and three to six inch rainfall will be common over much of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, southern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Higher amounts are very possible along and near the Blue Ridge Mountains, north of Roanoke.

Along with heavy rain and the elevated potential of flooding, one can recall the large number of tornadoes spun inland with Isabel...this is a weaker storm but tornadoes are a danger on Friday east of I-95 in Virginia as well as the Delmarva.

Here are a couple of web cams where you can check current conditions:
Hilton Head Island, SC (streaming) , Myrtle Beach, SC

Rapid fire updates today as Ernesto cranks up and approaches landfall.
 

UPDATE, 11:45 AM: 11AM; 50 knots moving NNE at 15 knot. On this and heading, Ernesto makes landfall around 9PM tonight on the SC/NC border. Tropical Storm Warning extended to the NC/VA border. A few days ago I frequently commented here my opinion was the storm could reach hurricane status but have backed off since yesterday. That may have been hasty as the storm is firing up strong convection in the eastern quadrants (over the Gulf Stream). Hurricane Hunters are soon to arrive so we'll see what they find, but Ernesto may have time to barely make landfall as a Cat-1.

Track ebbs west once inland: east of Raleigh, between Charlottesville-Richmond, then NW towards Winchester. sorry for the late blog but I was stuck in traffic behind an accident on I-81 this evening.

Here's a link to a streaming web cam from Wrightsville Beach, NC and...just added:
Kill Devil Hills (OBX) Avalon Pier Cam
 

UPDATE, 4:00 PM: Hurricane Hunters reporting winds at 70MPH...Ernesto may well be a Cat-1 hurricane at 5 or 8PM (this might please some with damage as insurance policies often pay out more for a hurricane designation). Heading is more NE than NHC forecast track so the storm likely comes into North Carolina...probably 9PM-11PM. Inland impact could be slightly lesser rain totals  well away from the coast but ENC, Eastern VA, Delmarva and the Washington/Baltimore areas will see very heavy rains.

More shortly.
 

UPDATE, 6:20 PM: Impressive bloom of convection near the center that may nudge Ernesto to a Cat-1 at 8PM. Rain overspreading Mid-Atlantic at this time and will intensify as Ernesto moves ashore tonight. Heaviest totals still look like NE NC, Eastern and Northern VA, Delmarva Peninsula and Maryland. Second tornado warning issued...this one for Brunswick County, NC. Wilmington, NC radar HERE.
 

UPDATE, 11:35 PM: Ernesto making its final landfall at this hour near Bald Head Island/Cape Fear-Long Beach, south of Wilmington, NC; this falls within the Myrtle Beach to Wilmington landfall previously mentioned here. Maximum sustained winds are 70MPH so it will likely be "scored" as a strong tropical storm. Radar at 11:30PM



There have been a few tornado warnings to the north and this will continue as the storm spins in. Night time tornadoes are especially dangerous and persons to the north and northeast must remain vigilant tonight and tomorrow. The 11PM forecast track again shifted east...now east of Raleigh to near Richmond and Washington DC. That is almost a moot point with inland tropical cyclones as the big story now is the tornadoes  and copious rain.

You can see there's a great deal of moisture associated with the storm and moderate-heavy rain now covers east central NC and VA; this will migrate north and slightly west overnight. Despite the eastbound shift in Ernesto's track, no changes overnight in the heavy rain risk zones outlined above. This track has helped keep rain from reaching the interior mountains but this changes overnight and upslope flow will enhance moderate to heavy rain along northeast facing slopes.

A visitor suggested passing along the Pancake Cam from Myrtle Beach, SC. This is a great find and goes into my web cam bookmarks. After loading, you pick the place you want to see (check out the Flags...mighty windy in MB tonight!) Link is HERE.

Another blog on Friday morning. Have a good night and stay safe!
 

UPDATE, 4:15 PM: In Winter, I usually offer a "first guess" on snow totals and that's what I'll attempt now with Ernesto's rainfall. The effect of the stationary front and Ernesto's speed are critical to how much rain falls. After looking at the models precipitation totals and forecast maps here's my first guess on Ernesto in the Mid-Atlantic:

6 or more inches of rain: Eastern SC, Central-Eastern NC, Central-Eastern VA, I-81 corridor from Harrisonburg, VA - Harrisburg, PA, Delmarva Peninsula, Northern VA (I-66 corridor), MD, DE and Southern NJ.  Eastern NC and VA (near and west of I-95) and NOVA could see higher totals.

3-6 inches of rain: Central SC, Western NC, Western VA (along and west of Blue Ridge & I-81 corridor south of Harrisonburg), Eastern WV, Central PA.

I'll try to tune this up again tomorrow and hope to have an update this evening as Ernesto prepares to evacuate from Florida.
 

UPDATE, 11:40 PM: Sorry for the late blog but I was stuck in traffic behind an accident on I-81 this evening.

Ernesto at 11PM remains a tropical depression and is moving off the Florida coast as suggested here yesterday near the Kennedy Space Center. I remain skeptical he'll be able to intensify to hurricane status but certainly should be a moderate to strong tropical storm. Heavy rain and flooding concerns grow after 2-6 inches of rain fell over portions of VA and NC tonight...this rain is not associated with Ernesto; it is being squeezed out along a frontal boundary. Tonight's precipitation is a "bonus" which will be added to Ernesto's ominous forecast of several inches of rain coming Thursday into the Labor Day weekend. Best advice right now is prepare for heavy rainfall and if you are located in a flood prone area, preparations should be completed in the event you are forced to evacuate.

Ernesto will landfall late Thursday or early Friday near Myrtle Beach or up closer to Wilmington, NC.  The weakening center then is forecast to track by Raleigh, Charlottesville, Harrisonburg-Winchester and then toward Pittsburgh. The more important point is flooding rains certainly aren't limited to this track and the entire region will see a lot of rain. By the weekend, stem rivers could be near or out of banks, prompting more flooding.

My local rain total for 24 hours is approaching 2.0 inches; this heavy rain made driving tonight nearly impossible. I've been in night time tornado chases where it wasn't as dark or rain as hard as I experienced tonight. And the lightning was frequent but sporadic, so every nearby flash both startled and blinded drivers. The storms prowling VA and NC tonight are the opening act for Ernesto. If you're interested in how things are developing in this area, visit our online weather station at http://www.midatlanticwx.com/wx.htm.
 

UPDATE, 5:30 PM: Brief update as I am on the road this evening. At 5PM, Ernesto is about 130 miles SSW of Ft. Lauderdale with 45MPH winds. Some strengthening is expected but I doubt this comes into Florida as a hurricane. Ernesto was utterly disorganized this morning but looks improved this afternoon...however...time and space are running out for more than modest intensification.

Of note, the trend has been west, but the 5PM Forecast/Advisory shifted the track slightly east over Florida. This translates to a moderate eastward jump in Virginia...about 50 miles in northern Virginia.

Short term, tornadoes are probable as feeder bands spin into south Florida...persons in the affected area should closely follow local weather watches and warnings.

Again I urge folks from eastern Georgia through the Mid-Atlantic States to prepare for the likelihood of heavy rains and the potential for flooding later this week. Gusty winds will also be felt across the region as Ernesto makes another US landfall and moves inland on Thursday.

More this evening.
 

UPDATE, 11:25 PM:

I respect candor. Tonight, NHC Director Max Mayfield dished out a dose by saying: "Frankly, I am surprised it has not strengthened...As a homeowner, I'm very happy. As a forecaster, I'm not very happy." I certainly understand his opinion as Ernesto continues to foil the best efforts at forecasting (perhaps it is the Ghost of Katrina reminding us it is August 29 and we still have much to learn). Ernesto *should* have strengthened this afternoon but aside from a one millibar blip, it did not. Tonight, it slogs into South Florida a messy tropical storm still with 45MPH winds. While it appears landfall is at Key Largo, it is difficult to say right now as the center is both tilted and unkempt. It is a frustration to offer a forecast only to see it not verify, but all the "blue roof" people in South Florida must be feeling pretty good tonight.

This storm will still be a prodigious rain maker for the Sunshine State with six to ten inches piling up through Wednesday. However, wind and surge damage will be minimal.

The forecast track ebbed slightly to the east, with the storm ejecting over the Atlantic at Brevard County (Cape Canaveral) on Wednesday night. Current track comes inland again just north of Charleston, then tracks near Farmville, VA, Winchester, VA and north to near Rochester, NY this weekend. Ernesto will likely make a SC landfall as a strong tropical storm...I still won't rule out a Cat-1 cane until reviewing the system once over the Atlantic. Needless to say, watches and warnings will post up the coast through the lower OBX and the heavy rain dangers still loom for SC, NC, VA, MD, DE and lower PA.

I received an email from someone with an interesting observation on this vexing storm: it is now making landfall in Florida. Ottawa, Canada is in the NHC "cone of possibility"...Tampa is not! 
 

KATRINA:  Day By Day.  Day 7. At approximately 6:10AM CDT on August 29, 2005, Category 4 Hurricane Katrina finally makes landfall by Buras, LA. It takes then FEMA Director Michael Brown five hours to request 1,000 Homeland Security advisors and offers them two days to arrive. He tells President Bush: “This is, to put it mildly, the big one, I think.”. It is not. At 8:14AM CDT, the first NWS Flash Flood Warning for a breached levee in NOLA is issued. At 11AM the hurricane makes another landfall on the Louisiana/Mississippi border as a Cat-3 at the same time I-10 is underwater at the Industrial Canal. NOLA's Homeland Security chief quips: "Everybody who had a way or wanted to get out of the way of this storm was able to. For some that didn't, it was their last night on this earth." The Red Cross, who 48 hours earlier noted it was "keeping an eye" on the hurricane, announces launching the largest mobilization of resources in its history for a single natural disaster. The Pascagoula Emergency Operations Center is flooded for the first time and is evacuated. An Amateur Radio operator near Gulfport is in his home as the roof blows away and then is flooded. He stays on-the-air by taking batteries from destroyed vehicles piling up near his now destroyed home. A familiar poster at the Storm2K board watches his home and neighborhood in Biloxi go underwater and captures the events in stunning photos. Despite being 19.5 feet above sea level, vehicles are submerged. Click HERE. The Federal Government declared a major disaster for Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. By contrast, government declared Florida a disaster area in advance of Ernesto last Sunday; three days before expected landfall. Here's is the Premium Service Weather verification chart showing all TPC/NHC Forecast/Advisory tracks for Hurricane Katrina. Katrina was a Tale of Two Hurricanes. NHC did not forecast Katrina would track southwest across Florida. Some Gulf Coast NWS meteorologists were surprised it did not hit the Panhandle, or go west to Texas. But the fact remains the Hurricane Center did superb work and well served the public with information regarding what was coming to Louisiana and Mississippi. Major hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico rarely verify but the National Hurricane Center provided accurate information nearly 60 hours before landfall. What each person did with the information was a personal choice. For too many, it was their last day on this earth. This concludes our series: KATRINA: Day By Day. Thank you permitting me the opportunity to share this information and some personal reflections with you. This series will be available (for free) at our HurricaneCenter as a PowerPoint presentation shortly after September 1, 2006. Thank you.

UPDATE, 5:40 PM: Ernesto remains a tropical storm that has dumped over six inches of rain in parts of Cuba. The center will be partially off shore shortly and will clear the Island later this evening. The cyclone is a mess but rotation remains evident on satellite and radar so he'll begin cranking up over the Caribbean's warmest water tomorrow.

Forecast track has shifted slightly east (again) for Florida and west for NC and VA. You'll note the forecast tract at our HurricaneCenter is roughly: in south of Miami, out near Kennedy Space Center then inland at Charleston, SC (Cat-1). Inland track roughly: Raleigh, east of Charlottesville and Winchester, VA. Again, until the storm clears Cuba and the center resumes organizing, this track is really an educated guess at this point.

Timing still looks like Tuesday night for South Florida. I am concerned if Ernesto isn't over Florida for more than a few hours that it may intensify over the Atlantic...especially if the cyclone rides across the Gulf Stream for an extended period of time. All interest along the north Georgia and the Carolinas coast must stay informed of current and forecast developments. A South Carolina landfall is now projected for  Thursday afternoon. Don't be surprised if this track shifts up toward Myrtle Beach or Wilmington. Ernesto could be an intensifying hurricane at landfall.

Interior interests through the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic should be concerned about the potential for moderate to serious flooding Thursday through Saturday! Again, this is highly dependant upon where Ernesto sets up tonight and his heading tomorrow.

Another update later tonight. 
 

UPDATE, 11:45 PM: Ernesto again is misbehaving and tonight tracked nearly due west, staying over Cuba longer than anticipated. At 11PM the storm was about 32 miles south of the 5PM forecast track and as a result, bringing the storm across the Upper Keys into Florida Bay or near Florida City. Current thinking is the storm departs the east central Florida coast and tracks NNE, coming in again between Hilton Head and Charleston, SC. The weakening storm then passes near Raleigh and then Washington, DC. I must again add that Ernesto's track can't be pinned down until he is over water.

Florida landfall is likely a moderate to strong tropical storm. I believe he can landfall on the Carolina coast as a Cat-1 and there is a chance he may be a strong Cat-1...again, too soon to tell.

I remain concerned this possible inland track will produce copious amounts of rain over central/eastern SC, NC, VA and the Delmarva. One would doubt we'd have an Isabel scenario but Ernesto's track may continue a westward trend; this storm needs to be watched by persons both along the coast and inland.

Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning now in effect for portions of Florida. I apologize for the late post and will have another update in the morning. Also, the final part of our series on Hurricane Katrina will be on the blog tomorrow.

 

KATRINA:  Day By Day.  Day 6. I fell asleep at the computer around 3AM on August 28, 2005. Shortly before 6AM EDT, I awoke and checked Recon. Here is what I and many others awoke to: URNT12 KNHC 280951 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE A. 28/09:21:10Z B. 25 deg 32 min N 087 deg 20 min W C. 700 mb 2381 m D. NA kt E. NA deg 000 nm F. 054 deg 144 kt G. 326 deg 016 nm H. EXTRAP 915 mb I. 8 C/ 3052 m J. 20 C/ 3055 m K. 13 C/ NA L. CLOSED WALL M. E04/30/25 N. 12345/ 7 O. 1 / 1 nm P. AF302 1712A KATRINA OB 04 MAX FL WIND 144 KT NW QUAD 09:16:00 Z MAX FL TEMP 21 C, 331 / 11NM SLP EXTRAPOLATED FROM 700MB. 915 millibars, 144 knot winds (~165 MPH) in the NE Quad. Katrina was now a massive Cat-5 hurricane. At 8AM it got even worse as the pressure dropped again to 908 millibars with sustained winds of 160 MPH. The NHC issued the following: "Coastal storm surge flooding of 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels...locally as high as 25 feet along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall". Along the coast, most people raced to clock to secure property from the advertised storm surge. Others did nothing and attended hurricane parties. Three who preferred parties to planning washed up two days after Katrina hit. The morning's model map and NHC track are below: There were jogs during the day which is expected from an intense hurricane, especially after an eyewall replacement cycle. Katrina kept grinding closer to the coast. People who errantly waited to evacuate discovered "contra-flow", the reversing of lanes to double the traffic flow in one direction, was ending in the afternoon because there simply was no place to put the vehicles and people. Thousands are now trapped on Interstates: no gas, no emergency gas fill-ups, overheated vehicles and virtually no where to turn. The I-10 East was closed and the West was creeping. Over at the Storm2K board, someone posted the now infamous Bulletin from NWS in New Orleans: URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED... .HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE. HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK. POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS. THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED. AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE! We were awestruck at the frightening tone of the message. And to those who had lived with Katrina for days, we believed every word that was written. At 6:35PM EDT I received a text message: 903. That was all it read but I understood Katrina was now 903 millibars. During the evening I listened to Hurricane Net streaming in IRLP and was stunned at what already was happening along the Gulf Coast. The day concluded with this message from the National Hurricane Center: 11 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 AT 11 PM CDT...0400Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED BY NOAA/NWS LAND BASED RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. Where ever you were, you watched and waited. It would be over tomorrow. And, it would just be beginning.

UPDATE, 11:00AM: Hurricanes are humbling. You can throw out about everything I and everyone else has thus far written about this storm. We've gone from the Yucatan and Houston, to New Orleans and Big Bend...now Tampa and possibly the Southeast US coast. And, the changes are not over with this most complicated forecast. Humbling indeed.

Ernesto did become a hurricane this morning (not a surprise). Yesterday, the center took a big jump which in reality is the formation of a new center. This happened more than once and that causes major flip-flops in the models and to a lesser degree, the TPC/NHC forecast track. Ernesto is far better organized this morning so let's see if we can get it right from here on out! As an aside, this is very close to what the 0Z GFS forecast last night and was totally discounted by me and several other forecasters. Go figure.

First issue is the tremendous flooding rains for Hispaniola and Cuba. This probably will be bad. Should Ernesto track NNW, the tropical cyclone clips Haiti and eastern Cuba but probably does not significantly weaken. Hispaniola is nicknamed "The Blade" because of the 10,000+ foot mountains, so some disruption should be expected.

It is difficult to forecast beyond this point as his track today determines where he goes next week. The models all now forecast a vigorous trof of Low Pressure to approach and direct the hurricane up towards Florida. You can see this developing by checking the forecast map...click HERE. Texas is in the clear and it appears that way right now for Louisiana. Until we get a better grip on where the storm is going everyone from Florida up to the Mid-Atlantic States should closely monitor developments. Current track puts Ernesto over the Keys early Wednesday with a possible landfall along the Florida west coast 18-24 hours later. This forecast track may shift further east so for now we'll watch and see while Florida folks begin preparations. There will be multiple recon flights today so we should have good data later tonight and on Monday.

Another update will be posted this afternoon.
 

UPDATE, 2:15 PM: Hurricane Hunters are currently flying the storm and having a tough time getting a solid center. It is possible the storm is again reorganizing and there is a diffuse area of varying minimum pressures. It is also evident "The Blade" is slicing convection to the storm's northeast. If you look at radar or satellite, you'll easily see how the mountainous terrain kills convection. At this time the center is just off the SW tip of Haiti and the cyclone is struggling. It will be a tropical storm at 5PM.

Latest Vortex Data Message (VDM) showed max surface winds estimated at 35kts...barely a tropical storm.
Before drawing conclusions, we should continue to follow the reconnaissance information and see where Ernesto is going and how strong he will be this evening. You can visit our experimental Recon page by clicking HERE.

More later.
 

UPDATE, 10:05 PM: Very little to add since Ernesto was downgraded this afternoon. NOAA has a high altitude research jet out tonight and this will give excellent data and therefore all computer models are taken with a grain of sand tonight. The real story now is tremendous rains over Hispaniola; this certainly will have dire consequences on the Island tomorrow. Eastern Cuba will see expanding and heavy rain overnight as the storm approaches and totals will exceed four inches in many locations. Modest strengthening is expected as the storm advances on Cuba during the day Monday. Once over Cuba, Ernesto will produce heavy rains, very strong winds and tornadoes. As you've probably already heard and read here, the longer over land, the weaker the storm will become. If Ernesto tracks more to the east (suggested by several models, the 18Z GFS in particular), the weakened storm will be over land for a shorter time and would begin an expected ramping up soon thereafter.

While Ernesto looks horrid at this time, the satellite presentation is less important than is the heading. If the storm is over western Cuba a relatively short period of time, it has more time to intensify over water...and...may NOT make it into the Gulf of Mexico. Instead, the tropical cyclone could miss the west coast of Florida and come inland via Monroe or Dade Counties before tracking up or parallel to the Peninsula. Should this be the case, the storm then probably heads off-shore up along Georgia and the Carolinas. Pure speculation on a possible developing trend.

Unless the storm turns NNE or NE near Florida, the potential exists for a significant flooding event for central/eastern Georgia to Virginia later this week. This is another reason why for the next 24 hours we should focus on the storm's heading...especially if you are in Florida. Evacuations have already begun in the Florida Keys where a hurricane watch may be posted shortly. For a super zoom-in of Ernesto's track and heading, click HERE.

We are officially done with Debby; the final advisory has been issued.

Next update tomorrow morning, along with Day 6 in our special series: KATRINA: Day By Day.

 

KATRINA:  Day By Day.  Day 5. My series on Katrina continues with a look back at August 27, 2005. The Gulf Coast and New Orleans are now in near panic mode. Evacuations are underway, Interstates clogged by sundown (Gov. Kathleen Blanco and Mayor Nagin later would testify the evacuations went better than expected). Yesterday, FEMA Director Michael Brown sent an email to his Press Secretary asking: "tie or not for tonight? Button down blue shirt?" Today however he, like many others, finally grasped the situation, writing to the Florida DEM Director: "This one has me really worried." NHC Director Max Mayfield lamented: "I just don't see any reason why this will not become a very, very powerful hurricane before it's all over." Here is the model map and NHC track from the evening of August 27, 2005: With the exception of the generally irrelevant A98 model, it was obvious Katrina would landfall at or possibly slightly east of New Orleans as a major hurricane. Some people were pleased to hear a Hurricane Hunter report indicating Katrina's Minimum Central Pressure was up to 950mb. I recall posting on a weather board this isn't good news as Katrina was completing an eyewall replacement cycle and every model indicated the storm would really bomb out tomorrow. Katrina looked ragged on radar but that didn't stop the NHC from hinting a Cat-5 hurricane remains a possibility (uttering 'category-5' in a forecast is extremely rare). The European and the GFS depicted a worse scenario, if that was possible: both brought the eye into LA just west of NOLA. Here's a close-up of the afternoon models: For the first time, I was scared while not being near the point of landfall. But others in the Big Easy apparently were not, as evidenced by routine traffic and hurricane parties broadcast live on cable network reports from the city. Every wobble on radar is analyzed and while I found it interesting, my attention was shared between recon and satellite. Katrina was blowing up. The cloud shield continued to expand, as did the wind field of hurricane force winds. This means storm surge to the east of where ever she made landfall would be huge. I spent the late night hours on IM and in a weather chat room wondering if the hurricane hardy residents of coastal Alabama and Mississippi had any idea what was coming their way. The President was on vacation and Michael Chertoff was in Atlanta to attend a Bird Flu conference, but today was the day Louisiana was officially declared a Federal disaster area. FEMA and the White House wanted us to know they were prepared. And, the unwitting understatement of the day came from the Red Cross' Renita Hosler who, attempting to calm the worried public, assured them the Red Cross is keeping an eye on Katrina. At 11PM EDT, the intensifying Cat-3 hurricane was about 36 hours away from landfall..

UPDATE, 5:00PM: I have just returned to the WeatherCenter and some changes to this morning's blog must be made. This afternoon's Hurricane Hunter flight fixed the center of Ernesto to the ENE of the previous advisory. This has caused a significant shift to the east...away from Texas (as such I have changed the headline of today's blog so as to not confuse anyone). Given this adjustment, the NHC forecast track has moved to the east as well...putting the Greater Antilles and the central and eastern north Gulf Coast at risk. Should the trend continue, both the Panhandle and Peninsula of Florida could be in danger. I'm eager to see how this evening's 0Z models handle this afternoon's change in position and will have another update later this evening.

Meanwhile...ALL interests on the Islands and the US Gulf Coast must closely monitor current information. Ernesto's position is further away from the Upper Level Low forecast to produce wind shear we've discussed for the last two days. As such, it now seems unlikely the tropical cyclone will be sheared and weaken.

More tonight...
 

KATRINA:  Day By Day.  Day 4. Katrina rolled off the Florida coast and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico on the morning of August 26, 2005; hours earlier than the NHC Forecast/Advisory indicated. It appears the storm was a borderline Cat-1 hurricane when it reemerged over water; winds were around 75MPH. Later in the morning, winds were 100MPH and the pressure dropped 15 or 16 millibars. Jim Cantore was being blown sideways on The Weather Channel while over 10,000 National Guard troops made way to the Gulf Coast. As promised, Katrina was "bombing out", but where was she going? Would the NHC 11AM Discussion might shed light on the dilemma? "THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF KATRINA IS FORECAST BY THE ALL GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES." The answer was no; in fact, it added to the confusion: "THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS HAVE MADE A LARGE JUMP TO THE WEST OVER LOUISIANA...WHEREAS THE MAJORITY OF THE NHC MODELS TAKE KATRINA INLAND OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS IN THE RIGHT PORTION OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE." You can see the conundrum faced by the NHC on the morning's model map of August 26, 2005: Once again, a second Florida landfall was forecast. But, the suspicion I fretted over was continuing...several computer models, led by the ECMWF, NOGAPS and the GFS, were shifting west with every run. Recon and soundings indicated two key points: Katrina was still moving to the West Southwest and High Pressure Ridging was not caving in. I emailed an EOC employee in a Mid-Atlantic State to comment I doubted Katrina was coming "our way". I argued every minute the intensifying hurricane tracks to the WSW, the further west it must make landfall. He wrote back telling me authorities from Georgia to Virginia were going to heightened alert as they prepared for Katrina's winds and flooding rains. Everything changed the afternoon of August 26, 2005. Here's the afternoon model map and NHC forecast track: High Pressure off to the north and northwest was not weakening...it remained very strong. The trof up over the US would come down toward Katrina, but because the Ridge was not weakening, Katrina could not sharply turn north toward the Florida Panhandle (High Pressure rotates clock-wise so Katrina kept a slow WSW track around the southeast side of the Ridge). She was supposed to be turning to the north, but stubborn Katrina had a mind of her own and kept spinning to the WSW. The 5PM National Hurricane Center Forecast/Advisory was an astounding 150 nautical miles to the west of the previous track at 11AM. My friend and thousands more went to the Superdome thinking Katrina would be turning away from Louisiana. At the end of the game, urgent hurricane messages were displayed at the Superdome, urging people to prepare for the possibility of a major hurricane near Louisiana and Mississippi. Everything changed.

UPDATE, 8:40PM: T.D. Five barely became Tropical Storm Ernesto this afternoon. While I *think* we will have a Gulf storm next week, I'm gun shy to start honking as there is a chance Ernesto does The Big Fizzle this weekend. If not, we will have a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week!

Moderate wind shear plagues the storm; this is visible on satellite imagery...click here. Ernesto will need to survive wind shear that is forecast to remain through much of Saturday. While virtually all computer modeling suggests the storm will remain organized (but intensify little) in the next 24 hours, it could dissipate into an open wave. This doesn't mean "game over" but it changes the timing and strength next week.

Ernesto then would interact with the islands...again, a disrupting factor. The cyclone probably remains just far away from Hispaniola so that the mountainous terrain would have only little affect. On Sunday, the tropical storm should come close to or possibly cross Jamaica. Ernesto then would have at least one day over open water to tighten-up and begin to intensify...this is when the NHC suggests we may have the season's first hurricane. This track puts Grand Cayman Island in harm's way. On Tuesday, the storm should approach  the Gulf by way of the Yucatan Peninsula or Western Cuba. Should the Ridge over the southeastern US hold, a WNW or NW track would by my first guess, meaning Texas. Any weakness in the Ridge will help Ernesto track with a more northern component. If you are thinking: Texas over to Alabama, that is a possibility. While too soon for specifics (remember, the storm must survive the weekend), it is NOT too soon for Gulf Coast folks to prepare.

One thing is certain, with Tuesday's "anniversary" of Katrina, the media will be in shark feeding frenzy mode and there will be a blitzkrieg of coverage on this storm. I am NOT ready to sound the alarm, but I want to get the early options on the table and go from there.

If Ernesto stays together on Saturday we will need to closely monitor developments. A potential US landfall would not be until Thursday or Friday, so we have time to observe and prepare.
 

KATRINA:  Day By Day.  Day 3. Our exclusive look back at Katrina one year ago today continues. Katrina increased strength to become a Category-1 hurricane at landfall. Over one million Floridians were without power as tropical force winds  buffeted the central and southern portion of the peninsula. Several people died, notably from falling trees uprooted in saturating rains and strong winds. The NHC's Dr. Lixion Avila wrote the 11PM Discussion which included an interesting comment: "THE MIAMI NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OFFICE MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 984.5 MB DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE EYE AND THE WINDS QUICKLY INCREASED IN THE SOUTHEAST EYEWALL WITH A PEAK GUST OF 76 KNOTS." Katrina crossed over the NHC's office. A videographer nearby in Coral Gables endured tropical force winds with hurricane gusts that were captured in this video. The evening's model map from August 25, 2005 had shifted slightly but painted the same picture...a second landfall along the Panhandle and then an inland runner up through Georgia, the Carolinas and Virginia. Incidentally, the five day NHC forecast, shown as the solid black line, put the storm a little south of the Mid-Atlantic WX.com office. The path still seemed too far east, but it worried me enough to put this note in my Day-Timer for tomorrow: "get gas, check generator." Why should anyone west of Pensacola worry about Katrina? After all, most of the models tracked the storm up into Virginia and that is a long way from The Ninth Ward of New Orleans. A trof of Low Pressure was going to swoop down from across the Great Lakes area and weaken the Ridge...in essence, shifting the wind flow and opening the door for Katrina to head north in response to the weakness. And, the GFS and GFDL were screaming TROF, so virtually every computer model intensified the storm over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and drilled it inland toward the Mid-Atlantic. But, my doubts continued because of lingering concerns the models all season had been too far east. The UKMET and the ECMWF models now hinted steering winds would nudge Katrina more toward the west. I wrote the evenings email WeatherCenter Update ready to honk "Mobile Bay or NOLA". I then read the following out of the NWS office in Birmingham: "PERSONALLY...I DON'T THINK THE NORTHERN GULF IS UNDER THE GUN AT THE MOMENT WITH A 595 RIDGE OVER THE AREA. RIDGE DOES SHIFT WESTWARD...BUT NOT FAR ENOUGH TO THREATEN MUCH OF ALABAMA. ONE OF 2 SOLUTIONS LOOKS MORE LIKELY...THE STORM STAYING ON A WESTWARD TRACK AND IMPACTING SOUTH TEXAS...OR A QUICK RE-CURVE ACROSS CENTRAL FL." I wondered what would push the trof all the way into the Gulf...especially in late August? My email Update was cautiously rewritten to remove New Orleans as my western "edge of probability".  Then while preparing to retire for the night a message arrived in my Inbox: a friend I chat with near New Orleans was going to the Saints-Ravens pre-season game tomorrow and wanted to know about Katrina. Being exhausted, my reply was brief: "she's in Florida, you're in NOLA. Enjoy the game and I'll let you know more this weekend". My follow-up email to her on Saturday received no reply...she had already evacuated. Tomorrow will tell the tale: is Katrina coming to my back yard in the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia, or is she going to bomb out and clobber Mobile. Or, is The Big One looming over the horizon?

UPDATE, 5:00PM: Quick comment as things are very busy right now in the HurricaneCenter. Recon found a closed low near the Windward Islands and Invest 97L now is Tropical Depression Five. However, the storm is extremely close to tropical storm strength and this WILL become Tropical Storm Ernesto within 24 hours. In fact, there are two Hurricane Hunter flights ongoing so it is possible there will be an "intermediate" upgrade as soon as 8PM. The "official" track remains a tropical storm on approach to western Cuba in five days. All interests in the potentially affected areas should now closely monitor developments. Graphics will be online at our HurricaneCenter in a few minutes. I'll blog again this evening, so please check back.
 

UPDATE, 11:00PM: T.D. Five remains just that...a tropical depression and we'll wait till Friday for Ernesto. Another Hurricane Hunter flight is scheduled overnight at 2AM and we'll see how things look in the morning. Of note, the computer models remain highly displaced, both in track and intensity. The "official" NHC advisory brings the storm to hurricane strength on Sunday night as it approaches Jamaica.

I'll have a very brief update on Friday morning (along with the next "KATRINA: Day By Day" installment) and then I'll be away for much of the day. Have a good night.
 

KATRINA:  Day By Day.  Day 2. Continuing my series on the evolution of Katrina. People awoke on Wednesday, August 24, 2005 and for the first time heard the name Katrina; the wobbly depression was in the Central Bahamas and about to become a tropical storm. Coincidentally, there was an Invest 97L also on August 24, 2005. This map below shows the 11AM EDT TPC/NHC forecast track for the newly named storm, along with the early model runs. It was here that the NHC changed the extended track of Tropical Storm Katrina...bringing it into Florida as a Cat-1 before crossing the Peninsula and recurving toward the Panhandle area. I've been told by a most reliable contact that this was in part due to the GFS model that excessively recurved Katrina into South Carolina. The GFS skewed the consensus CONU into Big Bend, while the GFDL group generally brought the storm to a second landfall around Pensacola. Perhaps you noticed the GFDN: the yellow line depicting the Navy version of the GFDL? Amazing how it nailed the path and remained the only model I tracked that generally stuck with a LA landfall. I was in communication with a USN Met who was resolute in believing the GFDN had the right idea: a trof coming down from the Great Lakes would weaken the High Pressure Ridge, permitting Katrina to track much further west than the NHC "black line". Here's a snip from the email WeatherCenter Update I sent on August 24, 2005: "At this time one must look to the Central and Northern Plains of the United States for answers, as a trof of Low Pressure approaches the cyclone, spinning up again over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. How this Continental feature interacts with Katrina determines where she goes. A couple of options are developing: the trof catches Katrina...pulling her into the Panhandle and up inland through Georgia to Southeast Virginia or the Delmarva Peninsula. Second option is Katrina stays south of the trof and comes inland along the Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama coast. My thinking right now is the latter. I'm not sold on the Panhandle because Gulf storms tendency to track slightly west of forecast is not lost on me." Watches and warnings were posted as the evacuations and boarding up began; Katrina was forecast to slow down and become a hurricane on approach to the South Florida coast. The media frenzy was underway in Miami, where hurricane force winds were feared. Katrina's real wrath was flooding rains that would produce moderate urban flooding. Tomorrow, Katrina's eye will literally cross the National Hurricane Center...little did they know in just four days they would figuratively be back in the eye of the very same storm.

UPDATE, 11:30PM: Quick blog to update things. TD Four/NONAME has officially become Tropical Storm Debby. Got a couple emails wondering if I'm irritated at TPC/NHC. Not at all. My ideas do fall slightly south and west of theirs, but they "call the ball", so we'll see what Debby does (excuse the pun!).

My "sneak attack" comments regarding in the western Caribbean are running out of time. Still a chance but not enthused.

New Invest 97L will cross 50°W on Wednesday and we'll keep a close eye on things. This wave was mentioned earlier today and NHC seems somewhat bullish on this becoming a tropical depression. Conditions are generally favorable, and while I'm not honking, folks in the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean will want to follow any future developments.

I'll be back on Wednesday. Have a good night!
   

UPDATE, 10:35PM: T.D Four looks well on the way to becoming Tropical Storm Debby. Nice convection around a well-defined low level circulation (LLC) and early signs of mid-upper level outflow illustrate the storm is getting pulled together. However, the obstacles previously discussed here will not ablate and if the storm survives, it should recurve over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. That said, I do agree with most computer models that bring this cyclone up to tropical storm status. Debby may also become the first hurricane of the 2006 season.

High Pressure over the Atlantic is expected to weaken and shift east as a Cold Front swoops off the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic coast later this week. Add to this the likelihood of another Upper Level Low forming west of TD 4/Debby and the threat to land is very small. And, the UKMET model remains unimpressed; this tells me dry air and marginally favorable water temperatures are further issues facing the storm. For now, I like the general west/WNW track to be followed by a shift more to the Northwest...well away from the islands and US.

WOW! Ioke, located due Southwest of Honolulu, HI is a Category 4 storm! The cyclone is tracking NW and will not directly affect Hawaii.

Hurricane Housekeeping: You'll find a slightly different look at our HurricaneCenter as we've made improvements to the current storm maps. One cool new feature is the ability to zoom into the storm track for an up close look. The links are unchanged and I hope you like the fresh new look. As always, your comments are welcome.



I pulled in the driveway at sunset this evening, popped out the cell phone camera and took this picture from my back yard.


Despite a new Tropical Depression, the stresses of life and demanding hours, I still enjoy taking a moment or two to sit on the deck and admire the beauty of nature.

Totally off-topic: this afternoon, my beloved New York Yankees completed a five game sweep of those nasty old Boston Red Sox. Yankee Baseball is an addiction of mine but sweeping the Sox??? As Yogi Berra quipped: Who'da thunk it???
 

UPDATE, 10:35PM: Well, that little respite was shorter than even I anticipated. LOL!  The latest wave (referenced in today's earlier update) has now emerged over the Eastern Atlantic and is now Invest 96L. Current Water Vapor image:



Note the black and gold colors just to the north of the wave; this is dry air. The Low Pressure is "fixed" at 10.8°N...just below the dry air. It'll be most interesting to see if convection holds tomorrow. My guess is it will and Tropical Depression #4 probably should be expected over the next 36 hours; however the track may not bode well for immediate development and strengthening.

Virtually every computer model takes the storm west and then begins a northwest turn after crossing 
25° West. While it is difficult to speculate this soon, my first hunch is storm will not make it to the Lesser Antilles and may recurve...but not as soon as the models now indicate. We'll see.
 

Monday,  August 14

Tropical Invests (areas of Investigation) certainly are coming...and going...faster than I can ever recall! Here's this morning's new lineup:

Invest 92L near the Windward Islands has been dropped. No development anticipated at this time.
Invest 93L east of Florida continues to be monitored.
Invest 94L is a new wave, barely off the Africa coast.

Disturbance off Florida (Invest 93L). Current satellite image here:



This is a complicated mess given it is not tropical and is associated with a frontal boundary. The big news this morning is it appears Low Pressure is trying to organize further south than originally anticipated, so this will continue to be monitored closely. Computer models offer a wide array of solutions from little to no development to a slow track towards Georgia or the Carolinas. It's interesting to note the GFS model yesterday indicated two areas of low pressure and that may be what is now happening.  At this time I can offer only a hunch as to development; if a single Low does develop it will encounter little steering and modest wind shear...probably hanging around the coast of Florida. A cold front will cross the eastern US on Wednesday and as it approaches, the Low may be pulled to the Northwest towards South Carolina. Once the front clears the coast, High Pressure builds in over the Northeast pulling the Low west or possibly SW.  All this presumes something gets organized over the next 36 hours so we'll watch and see. Right now, I'd think anywhere from Tallahassee up to Wilmington is in the game.

Wave entering the Caribbean (Invest 92L) shows nothing at the surface and appears to have done The Big Fizzle (as expected).

Wave coming off Africa (Invest 94L) is most impressive. Apparently, NHC agrees as this is about the fastest Invest I've ever seen in the Eastern Atlantic. Click HERE for real-time satellite images. Dry air is weakening off Africa (called Saharan Air Layer, or SAL) and while I don't get excited over these new Cape Verde waves, this will be watched as conditions are becoming more favorable for development. First guess right now is development along a WNW track, possible turning more to the north later this week.



My Big Fat Four Hour Vacation! Between my work with the Boy Scouts of America and Mid-Atlantic WX.com, I rarely get to take time off, however, I will be gone Tuesday and Wednesday. Time to take my 18 year old daughter off to college near Norfolk, VA (major trauma!). We'll get her squared away and take a quick trip over to Virginia Beach, where I've reserved an ocean front room for the night. I figure if we hit the beach and the Boardwalk at 8AM we'll have four hours of fun before leaving to get through traffic in the area and head home. So, it looks like my "summer vacation" is going to be 8AM-Noon on Wednesday. LOL!!! I'll have the laptop and will try to get an update posted here at the blog. If developments warrant, I'll also get an update online tonight.  
 

UPDATE, 11:30PM: Brief post to freshen things up. It looks like Low Pressure is developing over the Bahamas, due east of West Palm Beach. I think this Low has probably traveled as far south as it can and probably will start a slow spin to the NW over the next two days. The Curse of Hurricane Season 2006 is again in play: dry air and wind shear. Here's the current Water Vapor image:



The band of dry air is depicted in orange but this should weaken over the next couple of days. This also shows there's some wind shear from the southwest, which has helped diminish steady thunderstorms. Rapid development is not expected...in fact, this may not develop to anything more than a tropical depression. Still, it'll be "surfs up" along the east coast of Florida. Right now, only the UkMet model takes the system away from the coast...several models bring the disturbance near Florida and either over Jacksonville or the Panhandle, while others head up toward NC. Certainly, all persons in the affected areas should keep a close eye on this here at Mid-Atlantic WX.com.

My schedule is a mess (what else is new?!), so there won't be an update in the morning. I will try to get a new post to the blog on Tuesday night...hopefully, from the hotel deck overlooking the Atlantic Ocean at Virginia Beach :)

Till then...that's the way it looks from here.

 

UPDATE, 3:20PM: Quick status report on the system approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands. Hurricane Hunters now flying the disturbance report no closed Low Pressure center at the surface...therefore this is not a Tropical Depression at this time. By the way, you can following the track and data while the Hurricane Hunter flight is in the air by going to our exclusive Hurricane Recon Page...click HERE.

The storm (dubbed Invest 91L) certainly looks much more impressive today:



However, satellite doesn't tell the tale at the surface and the strongest winds I've seen on our Recon Page are just 20 kts. Most of the numerical models forecast this to not develop...what is worrisome is some hurricane intensity forecast models predict tropical storm strength in the Caribbean (SHIPs and SHIFOR forecast a hurricane), so I can't toss in the towel just yet. Unless the tropical models are seeing something different, it appears wind shear will again attack the storm as dry air lurks in the region...not a recipe for intensification. So for now, no TD #4 but that could change over the next day or so. Interests along the Islands as well as the Greater Antilles should closely monitor this system as even if it remains unnamed it will produce gusty winds and heavy rain.

Another post this evening, if conditions warrant.