Scott's July 2007

Mid-Atlantic Radar

Scott's July, 2007 Blog
(blog descends chronologically)

Invest 98L Keeps Hope Alive...Becomes Chantal!
Tuesday, July 31

Invest 98L became T.D. #3 last evening and has now reached tropical storm strength and is named Chantal.
Given her current latitude...VERY impressive.

I am on the road today and will not blog until this evening but you are invited to visit our HurricaneCenter for real-time info on Chantal.

Quick look at Invest 99L this morning shows weakened convection but circulation still is there. This system needs to survive another day (at least) before potentially more favorable conditions develop.

As suggested here last week, we are getting busy! Back tonight. Have a good day.

NEW INVEST 99L Probably Will Wilt. INVEST 98L: Keep Hope Alive!
Monday, July 30

I'll admit to being somewhat surprised this wave has developed cyclonic rotation and a few hefty thunderstorms. This system is located just about at 10° | 50°...approaching the Windward Islands. The air mass today's new Invest will be approaching is extremely dry...click HERE for current Water Vapor Loop. Invest 99L will also move into an area of 10-20 knot shear; 20 knots is usually sufficient to shear out a weak system. So, I am not forecasting significant strengthening over the next 36 hours...at least. There is no model support showing this becomes TD #3 in the next 36 hours. Curiously, both the SHIP and DSHP crank it up to a hurricane in 96 hours! The GFDL is around 55 knots while the GFS is a more reasonable 29 knots in four days. So, it is doubtful Invest 99L will develop but we certainly watch events closely. More model information available by subscribing to Mid-Atlantic WX.com Premium Service hurricane model maps...info HERE.

Invest 98L, now located due east of Cape Hatteras, NC, could develop...possibly as Sub-tropical Depression #3 , if at all. The system is not a threat to the US East coast and is now north of Bermuda.

Still watching models to see if any sneak attack develops in the NE Gulf of Mexico.

Sorry for the late posting on Invest 99L but our ISP experienced apparantly a major outage today. Our model maps were switched over to a remote location on a different ISP but no blogging for me until main connection was restored. Talk about withdrawal!!! Sheesh!

UPDATE: 10:15PM: The pot is beginning to boil in the Pacific and while not an automatic precursor of what is to come in the Atlantic, it fits the pattern evolution I first discussed here nearly ten days ago. But for tonight, quick comments on the Atlantic Basin.

TS Chantal (03L): Tip of the cap to this system that hung tough and earned "tropical cyclone" status this morning at a latitude north of Norfolk/Virginia Beach, VA. As the storm isn't a threat to the US there was no hurricane hunter flight but I'd have liked to see if this *really* was a totally warm core or if it was transitioning when it became Chantal. Regardless, the cyclone is now losing tropical characteristics and may become sub tropical tonight or Wednesday morning. Visit our HurricaneCenter for more on 2007's first fish storm.

INVEST 99L: I have no changes from ideas presented in last evening's blog update. Invest 99L is being eaten alive by dry air and some shear. This harsh environment is what "99" faces through Wednesday...probably into Thursday. Convection weakened and is disorganized and I remain tepid on any significant development in the immediate future. The GFDL brings it to 30 knots early Thursday, but that's all the reliable model support for strengthening (I discount the SHIP and DSHP intensity forecasts until there actually is a storm). The system must survive until it is south of Jamaica before it has a chance to ramp up. Possible, but not encouraging.

Quickie on the Pacific...

USAGI: Textbook Super Typhoon now at 120 knots (138MPH). WOW! The storm should peak at 130 knots (149 MPH) before weakening on approach to southern Japan. Visit the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) for excellent coverage of Usagi. The site is run by the US Navy and definitely is worth a Bookmark/Favorite. Very slow tonight but have a look!

Hurricane Hunters Into INVEST 98L This Afternoon...And...
Sunday, July 29

Invest 98L looked terrible last night but has nicely bounced back this morning. Current enhanced satellite view from our HurricaneCenter (click image for more close-up views):

This morning, the system is cranking up convective storms, however, it remains elongated and not yet has passed the "blob stage". Surface winds are still below 25 knows...less on the east side of the Invest. A nearby mid/upper level trof has not reached the surface...nor...at this time is there a closed surface Low associated with the Invest. This morning's first visible satellite images show what appears to be a mid-level circulation but is still is too early to determine if that's legit. Hurricane Hunters are in later this afternoon; their mission will be sniffing out any developing Low Pressure at the surface.

Snip from this morning NWS Hydrometeorological Center:

EAST COAST TROF...
LATEST GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH A SUBTROPICAL SFC SYSTEM LIFTING NWD WELL OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSIVE EAST COAST TROF ON D2-D3. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS THE NAM/CMC AND UKMET...WHICH HAVE A SLOWER AND MORE WWD TRACK THAN THE GFS.

This morning's Canadian (CMC) and the UKMET both are slightly west of yesterday's runs, so this feature will be closely monitored over the next couple of days. Not much we can do until recon gets in there, so please check back on Sunday night for an update here at the blog.

And...Gulf of Mexico action? I've been watching the GFS model and it keeps hinting Low Pressure spins up in the Northeast GOM by next Thursday night. This morning's run had a weak Low south of Tallahassee, FL. This is not totally tropical in that a frontal boundary dropping down will stall out near the north central Gulf coast, with the GFS developing Low Pressure along the front. If this pans out there would be heavy rain along the Panhandle and Big Bend areas...but I can't tell you this is going to be a named storm.

My trackball is dieing a rapid death and this means a trip to Circuit City is on today's agenda! I'll update the blog tonight after recon provides data on Invest 98L.

UPDATE: 10:10pm: The two thunderstorms I drove through today in Charlottesville, VA and on Interstate-81 were more impressive than the current status of Invest 98L. The Hurricane Hunter flight scheduled for today was scrubbed and at this time there is no flight plan to go out on Monday. By the way, here's a link to their daily Plan of the Day (POD): Plan of the Day.

I find no evidence of surface circulation at this time...perhaps the next Quik Scat pass will show us something but I'm not enthused. Shear appears persistent at 15-20 knots with an UUL located nearby; this is not always a hindrance for development...in fact it can help. But, nagging wind shear appears to be mitigating a continuous low pressure area at the surface. There is still a chance, but Invest 98L needs to organize and hold together over the next two days.

Typhoon Usagi appears poised to hit Japan on Thursday. This will be the second direct hit from a typhoon this month, with a major earthquake sandwiched in-between!

New INVEST 98L: A Likely "Fish" Storm.
Saturday, July 28

The "blob" north of the Bahamas is an organizing area of thunderstorms and became "Invest 98L" this afternoon. Here's the current enhanced satellite view (click image for our HurricaneCenter):

As a reminder, INVEST indicates an area of INVESTigation by the Hurricane Center. While many "Invests" simply disipate or remain an open wave, some close off and develop Low Pressure and become a Tropical Depression...so I always monitor these events with a close eye. By the way, each Invest is assigned a number (90-99) and the "L" indicates the location is in the Atlantic Basin.

Here's the first model map we've published at Mid-Atlantic WX.com Premium Service. Note: This map is
NOT CURRENT after 8PM EDT on 07/28/07. It is displayed to give you a first look at what the models are thinking:

Setup right now is a Stationary Front over the Mid-Atlantic expected to eventually slide off shore later next week. There is no reason to believe the Invest will track to the West or Northwest...toward the US. An Upper Level Low (ULL) over the Atlantic could enhance development of Invest 98L. I'll note that, so far, only the GFS and the SHIP/DSHP models are calling for strengthening to TD/TS strength. If this does organize, it will become Tropical Depression #3. If the system earns a name, it will be Chantal...but that's getting way ahead of ourselves!

For now, I am not overly enthusiastic this becomes Chantal as water temps and persistent...albeit relatively low...wind shear will hamper rapid strengthening. Invest 98L should stay west of Bermuda and certainly is something folks there will need to monitor.

I remain bullish once this weather bottleneck clears out, it won't be long for Game On in the tropics. As opined here a week ago, I think this transition gets underway somewhere close to August 1. We'll see.

Time Running Out For Storm Potential in the Bahamas.
Sunday, July 22

The wave discussed at length IS trying to close off at the surface, with a little bit of help from the nearby Upper Level Low. However, the hurricane hunter flight for this afternoon and overnight have been scrubbed...never a good sign from the NHC.

Here's where the action is located (click graphic to go to the NHC):

The wave is heading generally to the north; this will continue and is depicted by several computer models. As such, a Tropical Depression could develop but it will stay east of land and over run cooler water. At this time, no development is forecast to impact the Mainland US or islands.

I'll keep an eye on this and update as necessary. Have a good day!

Wonderful Weather and Then...Tropical Mischief Off The East Coast???
Saturday, July 21

A couple brief comments:

1. The pattern change discussed here one week ago (see July 15 blog below) will happen.
2. Opening salvo is the incredible weather this weekend in the East and the possibility of a storm early in the week.

As Arsenio Hall would say: "Let's Get Busy!"

What's going on here with a weekend of September weather in July? A large Upper Level Low (ULL) is spinning over the Eastern US...while a blistering hot dome of High Pressure is over the Western US. A High Pressure Ridge is parked over the Central Atlantic so the Jet Stream is diving down between the two Highs. This shows up nicely on our 5 hour Enhanced Water Vapor Loop: click HERE. The East Coast is effectively in a trof which is keeping the heat in the west from advancing (for now) so we're treated to cooler, drier air and one of the prettiest summer weekends I can recall :-)

This set up usually means tricky weather and that is what we'll contend with next week as the Low will trigger a sequence of storms over the East...many capable of producing strong winds and hail. For this reason, you'll want to keep a close eye on your forecast next week here at Mid-Atlantic WX.com. Temps and dew points will climb next week as the heat ebbs into this current set up. Warm air + cold air = KABOOM! and that's why scattered severe weather should persist well into the week. This should be hit-or-miss, meaning everyone will not see a daily barrage of thunderstorms...but...most folks in the east will get in on at least some of the action. This, is when I believe the advertised weather pattern shift will begin.

Before that occurs, we may have some mischief off the Atlantic seaboard! I invite you to pop open our HurricaneCenter and have a look at how this should play out. Note the tropical wave north of Haiti and Puerto Rico. This wave is now interacting with a ULL located in the region (this trof/ULL or TUTT is discussed below in the July 15 blog...it's still out there!). If you go back to the Enhanced Water Vapor Loop above, you actually see this developing. Those of us who hunt for trouble watch for these signals. Of course, right now this is all happening above the lower level of the atmosphere and so Low Pressure will need to develop at the surface before anything gets going. Some computer models indicate that will happen this weekend. Here's a model map I produced with three modes from this morning's 12Z run:

This model map is from our Premium Service section; information here.

Below is this morning's 5AM Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) map, publicly available to all by
clicking here:

The SREF depicts much the same solution: Low Pressure forms this weekend off the Carolinas and weakens before coming inland from NYC to Cape Cod during mid-week. Surface pressures do not appear to be deep: the GFS bottoms the low out at 1012mb/29.88" off OBX.

Timing should be late Sunday into next Wednesday, therefore, marine interests along the East should monitor any developments. If this becomes an "Invest" we'll have it online with our Premium Service hurricane model maps. Should this become Tropical Depression #3 it will be immediately online at our HurricaneCenter.

At this time, a Hurricane Hunter flight remains scheduled to fly out at 2PM on Sunday and I'll watch their data returns and post here at the blog, if necessary.

Earlier today, I picked up my kids at 1:30AM from a Harry Potter party in a local bookstore. I am thrilled they are actually reading a book...but 1:30AM? When I was young, if my parents picked me up at that hour...I knew it wasn't going to be good!

Some Severe Storms Possible Today.
Thursday, July 19

A Cold Front will approach the region from the Ohio Valley late tonight...bringing storms and wind to the Mid-Atlantic during the day and evening. The "3Hs" are being felt over the area as gusty winds from the south and SW race ahead of the advancing boundary.

Severe parameters will be marginal today and there should be strong to severe storms prowling the region...especially along/west of the I-81 corridor and north of VA I-64 (Staunton-Charlottesville-Richmond-Norfolk).

In the last blog I talked about outflow from a decaying thunderstorm and that should occur today, only on a much larger scale. Radar shows a weakened cluster of storms coming down form the Ohio Valley; this is what remains of a MCS (Mesoscale Convective System). As this system approaches it will push colder air along the surface (outflow boundaries). Warmer air now in place is lifted by this rush of cooler air and storms will quickly develop during the day and evening. Downbursts and very strong winds appear to be the primary threats, so keep an eye on changeable conditions.

Overnight showers and storms will continue into Friday morning as the Cold Front reaches the area. Cooler and drier weather for the weekend. Perfect timing!

If you'd like a "heads-up" on severe weather potential, check out our Mesoscale Discussion map by clicking HERE. This map highlights areas being watched for potential severe weather and frequently shows you where a watch may be posted well before being issued by the Storm Prediction Center. Handy!

Thunderstorms Continue to Rumble Mid-Atlantic.
Monday, July 16

Thunderstorms need three ingredients to get going. The first is moisture close to the surface. Muggy air that begins rising and then condenses gives off heat allowing more moist air to continue the updraft. Second, there must be some instability in the atmosphere. Frequently, air at the surface will be warmer than air in the mid-levels and it will continue rising if there is instability. The third component is lift...there needs to be a trigger to force warm moist air near the surface upward to produce the updraft. This is oversimplified but does define how a thunderstorm begins.

This is mentioned because we had numerous severe storms in the region today. The photo below helps visualize the process.

You are looking at "lift"; one of several things occurring in this cell phone photograph I shot this afternoon, looking Northeast. Were the skies clear, you'd be looking at the Blue Ridge Mountains, just north of Afton, Virginia (where I-64 crosses the mountains and also the location where the Blue Ridge Parkway becomes Shenandoah Drive). The base of the mountains is obscured in the lower right of the image. A strong thunderstorm is weakening well to the west (left) of this picture and its ouflow is gusting winds to 35MPH where I took this picture (note the flags blowing straight out). In the background, outflow from the dissipating storm to the west is seen steeply rising up the western slopes of the Blue Ridge Mountains. You can see how dark the sky is in the left side of the picture; that's rain off to the west from the thunderstorm...and pockets of blue sky are (fuzzy) but visible over the mountains in the right side of the picture.

The air mass near the surface obviously is rich in moisture, the atmosphere was already unstable (CAPEs over 1500, LI around -4) and PRESTO! now there's lift.

This type of storm development is common to those who reside near mountains, but always is interesting to watch. Part of the fascination in chasing comes from seeing so many different things happening and then determining where it is going, and how bad it will get. This storm prompted a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Charlottesville, Virginia and produced one inch hail and damaging winds by Louisa, Virginia.

Tomorrow should bring more isolated storms along the mountains. A Stationary Front stalled out right along the Mason-Dixon Line will creep slightly south on Tuesday with slim chances for storms. South of the boundary, "3H" weather holds with High Pressure off the East Coast and plenty of instability in the atmosphere. A Cold Front reaches the Mid-Atlantic on Friday, bringing brief relief to the heat and storms routine.

Quiet Tropics (For Now)...And..."Cosme" Coming Toward Hawaii.
Sunday, July 15

Hot and quiet weather in the region last week prompted a brief blog hiatus so that I could work on other matters here at the web site. Overall, this week looks to see a quick shot of "3H" weather return Tuesday-Wednesday as the Bermuda High pumps in heat and humidity. A Cold Front will be blocked by this Ridging and while storms may erupt over the area, temps will not drop much until later in the week. Another boundary will try to dig down from the north on Friday with cooler air...entrenched warm, muggies + advancing cooler, drier air = KABOOM and strong storms may plague the area and possibly the Northeast as we enter the weekend. Certainly something to keep an eye on.

Hawaii is also keeping an eagle eye on Tropical Storm Cosme, located in the Eastern Pacific. All reliable models weaken the cyclone this week as it approaches the waters southeast of the Islands. Cosme should be merely a remnant Low by the time it nears Hawaii, with modest winds and heavy rain. Visit our HurricaneCenter for current information.

TROPICS: Nothing brewing now and no hot spots to watch. A tropical wave approaching Puerto Rico will not develop, owing to strong wind shear courtesy of a a very large TUTT over the Atlantic: click HERE for water vapor (red and black denote dry air). TUTT is a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough featuring a closed off Low and typically produce harsh conditions for tropical development. With the large trof dropping from the central Atlantic southwest into the Caribbean, slim and none are the tropical odds right now...and slim left the building!

Keep in mind a "rule" frequently preached here: anything before July 15th is a bonus. However, the Mid-Atlantic comments above may be a harbinger of things to come! It appears the pattern will begin shifting next week as Low Pressure digs in from Canada. There is reason to believe this triggers a major change in the Jet Stream...buckling a trof down over the Eastern US. While this has been a persistent feature since Memorial Day, I am growing confident this trof lifts out and the shift continues with a more typical Ridging (Bermuda High) pattern. This idea is also touted by the long range GFS model with early hints coming from the European. I can't tell you with certainty it happens...or when, although if you teleconnect Typhoon Man-Yi now pulling away from Japan, one could make the case this shift is underway around August 1.

If this pans out as I believe it will, it will not take long for the pot to bubble in the Atlantic. August is Showtime in the Atlantic Basin, therefore despite this lull, there will be much to watch over the next couple of weeks.

Proenza Removed As NHC Director!
Monday, July 9

NHC Director Bill Proenza has been "reassigned" (removed) as the director of the National Hurricane Center. Ed Rappaport, a sixteen year veteran of the NHC will serve as interim Director, according to a NOAA spokesman on CBS4 Miami.

Rappaport is the NHC Deputy Director and during the furious 2005 season frequently appeared on TV while then Director Max Mayfield was in forecast meeting or catching an hour or two of sleep. Rappaport did not apply for the job after Mayfield's resignation in 2006, citing personal reasons. He has served as a hurricane specialist at the NHC and by most accounts, is well regarded by senior forecasters.

You can get more information by clicking here: http://cbs4.com/topstories/local_story_187100625.html

Hurricane Proenza: A Threat to Land Everywhere.
Sunday, July 8

The past several days have provided political and personal in-fighting at the National Hurricane Center above what could be written in the script for a tawdry made-for-TV movie. I refer, of course, to the literal mutiny within the NHC over their controversial new director, Bill Proenza.

Brief background: Former NHC director Max Mayfield's resignation was effective at the end of 2006. I was in the minority in that I was glad to see him go as several decisions made in the 04 and 05 seasons bothered me (though no one asked my opinion. lol). To his credit, Mayfield was a strong yet calm voice for the NHC as well as generally being liked and respected by the staff. Enter Bill Proenza.

This appointment surprised many people and I have been told was "shocking" to some forecasters within the NHC.

In March, when few were thinking about hurricanes, Proenza made public remarks concerning QuikSCAT (QS). This is the antiquated satellite that depicts wind speed of systems over open water, where recon and ground truth observations are unavailable. While QS is a helpful tool for verifying wind speed necessary to declare an Invest a Tropical Depression...or to aid forecasters with open water tropical cyclones, it has little value in determining forecast tracks or future intensity. Yet, Proenza ripped Washington for not investing money in the satellite program, declaring NHC landfall forecast error could increase by up to 16%. In addition, he claimed his forecaster's would need to put larger areas into warning zones; thus needlessly impacting more of the public. My opinion back then was, to quote Col. Potter on MASH: "horse hockey". Apparently, most forecasters at NHC had the same reaction and while privately discussed there, the fuse was lit.

Bill Proenza is a no-nonsense career guy. To you Psych Majors: he is an Alpha Driver. Forecasting within the NHC tends to feature a group dynamic where a team discusses how a storm will be presented in the next advisory. Quiet comments crept out that this was not how the new Sheriff would operate the center.

I was disappointed by Proenza's March, 2007 comments and knew they were not accurate (QS isn't used for landfall intensity or track). However, he became something of an immediate folk hero in Florida: David fighting the federal government Goliath. He blasted NHC's parent organization, NOAA, for "wasting" money to promote their 200th anniversary. When NOAA announced their intention to change the name of the National Hurricane Center to the NOAA Hurricane Center, he called it "scary". I agreed. NOAA's branch names are disjointed and they recently added the name "Tropical Prediction Center" (TPC) to the Hurricane Center's name...this was done to align it with the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), the agency responsible for severe weather and tornado forecast products. But, everyone in the public recognizes the name "National Hurricane Center" and I agreed with Proenza's comments that credibility is more important than name branding. But, in-your-face press conferences are a disturbing and totally foreign way of doing business at the National Hurricane Center.

It was around this time we learned Stacy Stewart, NHC's Warning Coordination Meteorologist (WCM) and a skilled forecaster, left the Center. Stacy is a quality specialist and genuinely nice guy...many wondered why he was now serving abroad; reportedly in Afghanistan. Stacy's departure was not publicly announced but private matters and career moves should remain private. Nonetheless, it was another curiosity from the NHC.

To those of us outside the NHC's walls, all was quiet. Subtropical Storm Allison came and went. Tropical Storm Barry (I questioned the validity of naming that storm here at the blog) gave a glimpse of problems within the NHC. A good source emailed to say "the new boss" was barking orders to senior forecasters as to how he wanted the borderline tropical cyclone to be handled. Apparently, there was more than one animated discussion and Barry meekly came and went.

Fast forward to last week. On Monday (7/2) a team of NOAA inspectors and an attorney from Washington came to the Center to conduct an unannounced inspection. I am told this was at the behest of at least two senior forecasters within the Center. Bill Proenza was not pleased and went public with another tirade about NOAA. He again defended his QuikSCAT comments and indirectly called into question the reliability of his senior forecaster's. The fuse lit month's ago was still burning and this embarrassing episode was going public.

By the time we were celebrating Independence Day, the media circus tent was in full bloom outside the NHC's gated parking lot. Three of five NHC Senior Forecasters were publicly calling for the director to resign! This preceded a petition signed by approximately half of the entire NHC staff requesting his immediate removal. Proenza responded by essentially saying the inmates don't run the asylum: "The staff here doesn't dictate who the leader is. What a dangerous precedent when we allow subordinates to dictate their leadership by signing a petition.'' Now livid, insulted, misquoted and in full rebellion, several senior staff members called their own press conference; so acrimonious is this situation that the word "lies" is used in reference to the director.

This is a distasteful and disgraceful situation that probably has a lasting negative affect on the NHC...right before the heart of hurricane season. The Center now faces credibility and marketing problems: their embattled director has errantly implied his forecasters may not be able to provide accurate products. Congress now is discussing the diversion of funds to QuikSCAT...funds that are needed for hurricane hunter reconnaissance flights. Emergency Managers, both state and local, publicly question if the NHC can do their job. There have been shouting matches within the Center. Some forecasters will not meet with their director in private for fear of misrepresentation. Dr. Lixion Avila, the Center's longest tenured senior forecaster says of Bill Proenza's miscues regarding QuikSCAT (and other things): “Don’t attribute to malice what you can attribute to stupidity.”

Are you wondering what the hell is going on here? You are not alone.

My reliable source and I talked at length on the phone yesterday; the atmosphere within the NHC is toxic. The forecast staff is doing its job, but I was told: "taxpayers are saving money because it is so ******* cold in there that the AC hasn't been on in weeks."

We expect and deserve better than this from NOAA and the National Hurricane Center. Hurricane Proenza is threatening us all. We can not make a real tropical cyclone go away, but this hurricane can go away in a hurry. Last week, I posted some comments at the S2K board (drill down for my remarks) and I publicly call upon Bill Proenza to immediately step down. There are reports another NOAA inspection team is due at the NHC tomorrow and it would be best were he gone before they arrive. Beyond that, I would call upon the Senior Forecasters of the NHC to clam up because, in their desire to keep the Center the crown jewel of tropical forecasting, some have comported themselves in an unprofessional manner. Congress should stay in the Beltway and out of the NHC. When it comes to meteorology, nothing good ever comes from the involvement of political hacks. Don't divert money to QuikSCAT, put it into recon flights. Slash the insulting 200th anniversary funds you've given NOAA...put that into the NHC operating budget.

The NHC now has a huge credibility problem...one that won't truly manifest until a major hurricane threatens the US. Will the senior forecasters and staff be up to the challenge? I hope and believe they will. But not until Hurricane Proenza is gone.

Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic Tornado Watches for July 4th.
Wednesday, July 4

Strong to severe storms will migrate across lower Ohio Valley into PA and northern Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening. Tornado Watches are now up:

Most likely locations in this weather setup are NOVA along I-66 into southern PA and to Dover, MD. If you're outside enjoying the Fourth be prepared for possible severe weather!

Some strong storms may fire later today but generally will along the I-81 corridor north of Roanoke and across Virginia along I-64.

Supercells with prodigious rainfall and moderate (1"-1.75") hail is also possible...especially for NOVA. Click the map above to jump to our Severe WeatherCenter. Severe Thunderstorm Watches may also be needed this afternoon south of the Tornado Watch boxes.

Have a happy...and safe...Fourth of July!

INVEST 96L in Central Atlantic: "That Don't Impress Me".
Tuesday, July 3

OK. So I'm not Shania Twain. A little convective "blob" east of 40 in the Central Atlantic is now Invest 96L. Hurricane models are up and running, taking it toward the Antilles this weekend. A couple items jump out at me. First, there is alot of dry air near the Invest and it's lights out if the system gets into that air mass. Also, this morning's 6Z GFS appears to crank up the system but takes days to move it west before it drops the depression or storm. The GFS model will frequently "jump and bail" on a storm, however several other models poo-pooh the whole thing all together. Wind shear is not devastating but should hold at 15-20 knots (sufficient to not help development).

No blogs Wednesday and Thursday, unless something gets going in the tropics. Have a happy and safe Independence Day.

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