Scott's July 2006 Blog

Mid-Atlantic Radar

Scott's July, 2006 Blog

Tropical Depression #3 Forms East of Leeward Islands.
Monday, July 31

(9:40PM) Circulation has finally made it to the surface and the disturbance we've been following (Invest 99L) will become Tropical Depression #3 at 11PM EDT. Current view:

More images at our HurricaneCenter by clicking HERE.

Despite this becoming an "official" storm, I remain a skeptic for three reasons:
1. Wind shear of 20 knots from the NW/NNW continues to rip thunderstorms away from the center. Just north of the depression the shear increases to 30 knots...tropical cyclones do not develop in these conditions. As the storm nears Puerto Rico on Wednesday the shear increases again.

2. Dry air. Saharan desert air has crossed the Atlantic along with this wave and while there is more moist air over the Caribbean, the storm is not expected (at least by me) to intensify in this dry air mass.

3. Land. The depression will pass near Puerto Rico, probably just north of the Island...from there it may next face Hispaniola; otherwise known as "The Blade". 10,000+ foot mountains slice storms that pass near the island and if TD #3 does so, it is ripped apart.

I am both surprised and impressed this disturbance has survived and becomes a TD this evening but that does not change my opinion this remains a TD or at best a weak Tropical Storm. If it somehow survives this trip and approaches the Bahamas, it will be sheared again by hostile winds. We certainly want to watch but I am forecasting little intensification and not anticipating this becomes "Chris".

Please visit our HurricaneCenter for real-time maps and information. Everything will be online shortly after 11PM when the NHC issues their first Forecast/Advisory on Tropical Depression #3. Premium Service model maps are current.

Carolina Blob. The chat rooms were abuzz today when Invest 90L appeared! Once again, I was surprised to see an Invest...especially for a NON-tropical area of Low Pressure. This benign Low will move east or southeast and without affecting the Mid-Atlantic or Southeastern US.

Cape Verde Wave: This feature is holding together and models are now jumpy. My hunch is this will become our next Invest as conditions will be more favorable for this wave than the last couple of waves that trekked across the Atlantic. We'll watch and see.

Sundries: The blow torch will be turned up on Tuesday and Wednesday in the East with dangerous heat indices. If you thought it was hot Monday, you'll really be impressed with Tuesday and Wednesday. Follow your local advisories and take care with any outdoor activities.

I bought a new vehicle today and it is true, you get the best deal on the last day of the month! I will keep my license plate: F5 TRN80. Anyone who loves weather ought to figure that one out right away!

Visitor Comments

From Julie in Clearwater, FL
Hi Scott, Any chance this becomes Chris and affects us over here by Tampa? I am still skittish after everything in 2004. I love this website too.

Scott replies: I am not sure TD #3 even becomes Chris but if it does, I don't see how it hits Florida as there will be a lot of wind shear across the Bahamas. But, you certainly want to keep a watchful eye on the storm. I understand about 2004 and hope everyone there is well prepared for whatever this season may bring. Thanks for writing and for the kind words, always appreciated ;)

The Tropics Are Heating Up (Soon),
The Eastern US Is Heating Up NOW!
Sunday, July 30

Sunday evening comments on the tropical wave approaching the Caribbean. Try as it will, this wave (INVEST 99L) is still just that...a tropical wave. I know all the the hurricane enthusiasts (odd phrase, I know) are getting antsy about this, but it still is merely an open wave producing thunderstorm flare-ups. I remain recalcitrant in thinking this will not develop. Among other factors previously cited, the wave will again be blasted by wind shear as it passes the Lesser Antilles. The computer models all are trending toward Hispaniola and the Bahamas, except for the GFDL which puts the storm south of Cuba as a Cat-1 hurricane in 4 days. Doubtful! There's a chance this becomes a Tropical Depression (slim, in my view) but even if it does there is little to cite suggesting it will develop beyond that. We'll keep watching.

Curious happenings with the wave now located south of Cuba. This feature looks to split in two with energy from the northern piece heading up into the Bahamas (see Saturday's blog). This too will be sheared and probably ends up over or east of the Bahamas. Again, development is unlikely due to harsh conditions, but it could cause problems by Wednesday. Southwest winds ahead of an approaching trof should blow to bits anything that does try to crank up. Certainly worth keeping an eye on it. The remaining piece of this wave will head into the Gulf where no intensification is expected.

The most impressive wave this season has rolled off Africa...click HERE...with some important models jumping and staying with the storm. Swirls and thunderstorms southeast of the CV Islands always interest me but I never start honking until circulation holds at the surface and the storms start wrapping around. This could happen soon so it needs to be watched but no hurricane hype from me with "blobs" way out there!

Overall, things are beginning to show signs of life and that is only logical as we approach August 1st.

Hideous Heat! I love the song; "The Heat Is On', by Glenn Frey and it is the musical theme of the week. Another heat Ridge of High Pressure is sliding east across the US; pumping excessive temperatures and heat indices from the Plains, through the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A glance at our Severe WeatherCenter maps shows an expansive array of heat advisories and warnings. This is one of those it's-not-the-heat-it's-the-humidity deals where temps soar into the 90's while dew points approach or exceed 70° making for oppressive and unhealthy outdoor conditions . Tuesday afternoon through Thursday will just be dreadfully sticky hot from the Southeast Coast of Maine down through Georgia; temps well into the 90's with the Heat Index exceeding the century mark. I'll be making several trips this week to our Scout camp and will be hounding the boys to drink plenty of water...you do the same as this will be near record-breaking heat for many locations across the eastern third of America.

Cold Front pushes into the Lakes, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast later this week meaning cooler temps, clouds and some precipitation will bring welcome relief to this latest blowtorch.

Severe Sunday: While working on my deck today we had two separate Severe Thunderstorm Warnings; the first passed to my north and the second storm pulsed up just south of my location. I took off chasing the second storm but it was spent by the time I reached it...typical because Pulse Severe storms usually come and go in twenty to thirty minutes. While driving down Interstate-81 I took this picture:

Not great quality due to shooting through the windshield while speeding ;)
Very nice updraft produced some heavy rain but no reports of damage. Echo Tops indicated this topped out at about 40,000 feet. This was a fun one-hour chase but ended as every other has this year: nothing.

We'll update the tropics again on Monday so please check back.

Saturday Tropical Thoughts.
Saturday, July 29

The tropical wave (INVEST 99L) about two days east of the Lesser Antilles continues to struggle but not go away. I've just returned from Scout camp and haven't had much time to analyze but do see some items of interest. Taking a look at current satellite imagery...click HERE...it does appear circulation is making it close to the surface. There is little convection near this area so the disturbance is not in an intensifying mode at this time. If you scroll down on the linked page you'll see the current water vapor image; darker colors indicate very dry air ahead of the system...another mitigating factor against development. Computer models are still not enthused, in fact, even the "Jumpy GFS" isn't on board with this system. Even without organization, this disturbance will bring a periods of stormy weather to the Islands while conditions become a bit more favorable if the system continues on the current path. It is interesting that the NHC seems more bullish than am I on this becoming a Tropical Depression. I'm not used to that ;)

The NHC also comments on the wave located south of Puerto Rico...click HERE for current satellite. I agree with their assessment there is a chance this wave could go, but not within the next 36 hours. Energy from this wave likely gets pulled up toward the Bahamas so we may have another "Bahama Blob" early next week. This disturbance could become our next Invest and if so, it will be INVEST 92L.

Truth is I can't find a single model that develops either of these waves but we'll continue the wait and see game.

Side note: I am teaching weather at camp next week and will be making commutes up and back. Normally, I'd stay there and have a blast but too much going on here, so there will be plenty of windshield time. Posts to the blog may be sporadic, but this will be the final week of camp season and regular updates here should resume. At our camp fire I got to do something called "The Chicken Dance"; if you were ever in Boy Scouts or Girl Scouts, you know what this dance 'entails'. Thankfully, there are no pictures of this event.

I'll be back tonight if necessary and will update the tropics tomorrow.

VISITOR COMMENTS

From Jeff, in Florida:

Scott, Your Blog and premium weather site are great!

I live and work in Florida (Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne made landfall in Martin County, where I live, and Wilma hit us from the west side last year), and I have a mountain retreat in Bath County, Virginia, so your site means a lot to me. I really am learning a lot about watching the waves from reading your blog.

Keep up the great work!!

(Scott's reply: Thanks Jeff, always nice to hear comments about the site. Bath County, Virginia is one of the true hidden treasures of the eastern US! Folks unfamiliar with this spectacular area may want to visit this site: http://www.bathcountyva.org/ BTW, Bath County boasts being about the only County in the East without a single traffic light!)

INVEST 99L: Slight Chance To Develop
Friday, July 28

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic (near 9N/36W) is trying to organize and is now "Invest 99L". Current Satellite images HERE. You'll see the tropical wave (essentially a linear trof of low pressure) is trying to wrap around (becoming cyclonic), but it has a ways to go and I am not bullish on rapid development.

The system should continue tracking generally to the WNW over the next 24 hours. While computer models aren't honking much about this, such a path would take anything that does develop close to or NE of the Lesser Antilles early next week. Here's a "freebie" model map from early this morning:

While not enthused at this time, I would urge folks throughout the Islands to monitor this system for any development that does occur this weekend. The disturbance is not impressive, shows no signs of Low Pressure at the surface and will be plagued by wind shear for at least 36 hours...all factors bolstering my thinking anything that does spin up is not imminent. If it survives, conditions may be more favorable as the wave approaches 50°W so we'll watch and wait.

SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY: Strong to severe storms expected to develop over portions of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic US this afternoon and evening. Primary risk area is east of the Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains...especially east of a line from Washington DC - Binghamton, NY - Worcester, MA. South of DC, some thunderstorms may produce strong winds and localized areas of heavy rain. Please refer to our Severe WeatherCenter for real-time information.

Folks...I'm ticked off! This is the second time I've written this post to the blog. During the first effort my computer locked up as I was proof-reading and running spell-check and everything was lost. I know it sometimes is hard to believe I do try to check my spelling. Anyway, this is half as long as the last one, which may be too long for some of you so I'll close now. Computers are the means and the bane of existence. See the little ranting dude on the top of the page? That's me. Arrrggghhh!!!

Suggested Reading While You Wait
Thursday, July 27

As previously suggested, Invest 98L did not become a Tropical Depression but did produce up to one foot of rain over South Texas. Moisture also was pumped into the TX/LA area with some minor flooding reported.
Click HERE for precipitation totals from Houston, TX Radar.

A wave in the Caribbean should bring showers to Florida by Saturday midday, but development is most unlikely.

Otherwise, nothing brewing in the tropics over the next 48 hours.

An interesting article on hurricane research has just been published on the NASA Science News web site that I highly recommend you read. Scientists will spend one month researching tropical waves coming off Africa...The Birthplace of Hurricanes. This article is easy reading and explains how we have much to learn about why some thunderstorms coming off West Africa eventually become tropical cyclones. The link to this story is here: http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/26jul_namma.htm?list152957 .This also is timely as we're about to enter "CV Season"; the time of year tropical waves near the Cape Verde Islands are most likely to develop into cyclones.

I have received several emails and IMs asking "what happened to hurricane season"? The answer is nothing...we are in a somewhat typical pattern. Keep in mind, 2005 was simply out of control and considered by most as an extremely abnormal year. Let's go back to 2004, a very active season, right? Four Florida hits and seventeen named storms (18 if you count Ivan the Second as a different storm...but I won't get started again on that). Hurricane Alex, the first named event in 2004, formed on July 31st reminding us busy seasons can and do start in August. I continue to stand by my guns in the belief this will be an active season with hits in the Caribbean, the East Coast and Texas. So, if you're ready to write off hurricane season, 2006, remember this from Guns N' Roses song: "all we need is just a little patience". And, as my Grandmother often told me: "be careful what you wish for, you just may get it". Odd, GN'R and my Grandmother in the same thought process! Well, I am different from most people ;-)

Invest 98L = Quick Draw McGraw
Monday, July 24

Current Invest 98L located just off-shore midway between Tampico and the US/Mexico border is not expected to develop as the wave is close to land and experiencing wind shear. This is the latest Invest (area of investigation) that makes me scratch my head...no numerical model support for the wave to close off and become a depression...to say nothing of sensible weather analysis. Conditions become more favorable for development if the wave somehow stays over water for the next 48 hours. Don't hold your breath. Hurricane Hunters have cancelled today's flight into this disturbance.

Weather forecasters and the US military use an "Invest" as the first notification of possible tropical development therefore every one is carefully examined. While I don't like the "dime a dozen" approach to Invests this year, it is preferable to having a sneak attack storm. I'll continue to monitor and we'll have updated model maps and data in the Premium Service weather section of the web site.

Flood Update: In the July 13 blog below I discussed some folks near Binghamton, NY who suffered extensive flood damage and thought a progress report would be of interest. Their home was submerged by 4.5 feet of rising water from the Susquehanna River and was declared a total loss. Here's how they have been served after the flood:

Local and NYS Emergency Service personnel: Excellent. Fire, rescue and police all helpful and involved.

FEMA: Poor. Nice people handing out forms and answering questions. Terrible follow-up after submitting forms. One call to the FEMA number provided and made on a cell phone was put on hold for 17 minutes and then disconnected. They did not attempt to call back.

Red Cross: Mixed. Local Service Center and caseworker instantly available and well informed. No cots, no provisions to launder clothes and no portable showers or alternate plans forced many to improvise. They were told to return to the service center where a several hour wait was expected in order to get a debit card.

Insurance Company: Excellent. Adjuster came to the home, did a 35 minute appraisal and offered what was considered a fair settlement. Check will be sent before August 1, 2006. They had flood insurance; without it they would have not received a dime.

My conclusion: have flood insurance or do not reside in a flood plain. Annually document everything you own, know how to take care of yourself and your family...do not assume other organizations will take care of you. As Grissom quips on CSI; "assume nothing".

My weekend: I bought a new cell phone last week before heading to our local Boy Scout camp for the weekend. The camera is more advanced than my previous phone so I took a picture of the camp Mess Hall from the parade ground:

Quiet scene between camp sessions yesterday. I didn't want to leave!

Bye, Bye, Beryl!
"A Nod Is As Good As A Wink"
Friday, July 21

Quote above is from the name of an old Rod Stewart album and is mentioned because of how this storm may be classified. The eyewall appears to have barely crossed Nantucket Island but not the mainland and therefore should be classified as a landfall. But one never knows...a couple recent memory storms did this on the Outer Banks and were not considered landfalls but we'll see how NHC scores it. So, if a nod is as good as a wink; I'll nod saying this was a "hit". You know, there was a time it seemed the criteria used by NHC were easy to understand and consistent; no so anymore. This should go into the books as a hit making the US 2 for 2 in 2006. I know my forecast called for a fish storm with the possible exception of clipping Nantucket or Cape Cod, but overall, a decent forecast from here.

Looks like peak sustained winds were right at 40MPH with gusts around 50MPH. Alot of rough surf for New England today as Beryl barrels down on Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Beryl's a tough guy and continues firing up convection while being this far north and over cooler water.

No changes to earlier ideas presented here: front comes through then stalls and will produce storms and rain across the Northeast. Some severe storms also possible today across the Mid-Atlantic. Nothing to report on the tropics.

This probably is my final entry in the blog for a couple of days as I will be working at our local Boy Scout camp this weekend. I'm heading out to buy industrial strength insect repellant.

Have a good weekend y'all!

"Beryl" Heads North.
Thursday, July 20

Beryl looks a little more impressive this morning but I believe he's topped out at around 60MPH. The storm is slightly west (closer to land) than was anticipated but is expected to resume a turn more to the NNE and then NE. Forecast guidance and most models put the storm east of Long Island and very close to Nantucket Island before taking aim on Nova Scotia.

Swells and rip currents are the immediate concern from the Mid-Atlantic up through Long Island...this will expand to the southern New England coast later today. Long Island is directly north of the storm and this area will see very squally weather today...thunderstorms, increasing winds and rain roll in by Noon today. Rain and storms will clip the Jersey Shore as Beryl heads to the north. If the storm tracks just off the Cape and Islands, rain will be minimal north and west of Boston. If, however, Beryl gets closer to the coast and tracks slightly to the west of the "official" forecast track, CT, RI, MA, southern NH and southeast ME will see heavier rain. This scenario brings gusty winds to the NYC Metro and stronger winds to Providence, Boston, Portsmouth and Portland on Friday. I lived in Portland, ME during Gloria and Bob and recall people putting masking tape "Xs" on their windows...don't do that!

The front we have discussed here should also help keep Beryl from tracking inland and will be the focus of non-tropical storms across New England; this increases the risk of flooding in the area so folks in the Northeast will want to closely monitor forecasts and heed any warnings that may be issued. Note the Tropical Storm Warning in affect for Cape Cod.

So, this should not reach hurricane status but will get very close to Long Island and Cape Cod.

Free air-conditioning! Yesterday, we had two severe thunderstorms near Lexington, VA, both missed our weather station but check out the temperature freefall:

Plenty of outflow from the storms forced rain cooled air across areas not in the path of the thunderstorms. At 4:45PM the temperature was 91.7°...at 6:15PM the temp was 68°. Very impressive, not to mention refreshing!

Another update coming later today.

UPDATE, 11:50PM: Quick late-night post to keep the night owls up to date. As this is written, rain bands are reaching the Islands south of Cape Cod...Radar loop here...click red circle to animate. I found a live web cam of Hyannis Harbor on the Cape...click here. Beryl began the forecast turn to the northeast and is now accelerating toward Nantucket Island. The storm is not expected to cross land but will be a close call and certainly produce heavy rain, 15-20 foot waves and strong winds. Check our HurricaneCenter for current warnings. The weakening storm will not produce much rain for interior New England and little impact will be felt north of my *favorite* place in America: Nubble Light in York Beach, Maine (click here for the web cam to prettiest light house in the USA) .

As Beryl pulls away from land and heads into the Gulf of Maine the Cold Front discussed here will cross the Northeast. Non-tropical rain and thunderstorms should develop on Friday as the boundary slowly ebbs across the Northeastern US. Storms will develop and a few could become strong and produce heavy downpours. Pockets of flooding could again be an issue.

This frontal boundary will stir up some storms in the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic on Friday. These areas are outlined for a Slight Risk of severe weather and there's a chance some strong storms flare up. Check your local forecast and visit our Severe WeatherCenter for real-time information.

Nothing to report right now elsewhere in the tropics. We'll see if anything gets cooking in the Gulf early next week.

I'll remind everyone there will be no blogs this Saturday and Sunday as I'll be away at Scout Camp. I'll get a quick update online Friday morning.

"Beryl" and The Heat Is On!
Wednesday, July 19

The center of Tropical Storm Beryl is nearly due east of Cape Hatteras so the original ideas presented here indicating no Outer Banks landfall will verify. This morning, winds remain at 40-45MPH keeping the storm a minimal tropical storm. Typically, the strongest winds are to the north and east and that's the case with Beryl, so the highest winds will not reach the OBX. I did think the storm would track slightly more to the NNW (closer to OBX) but it appears generally on a north bound track...good news! Weather will turn squally along the immediate NC and SE Virginia coast, with gusty winds, rough surf and undertow being be the primary hazards.

The Eastern Shore and the Jersey Shore will feel some impact tonight and Thursday morning. Beryl may hug the coast kicking up seas and storms for Long Island...some severe weather would be possible. There is concern the storm may pass quite close to Cape Cod and the Islands, so folks along the Southern New England coast should closely monitor the storm. Everything you need is online now at our HurricaneCenter.

I love the Outer Banks of North Carolina and frequently visit the Cape Hatteras Lighthouse web cam page...click this link for current view showing conditions as Beryl passes by: http://www.nps.gov/caha/livecam.htm

Oye! I'm sweating as I read some information from the National Weather Service...half the country hit 100° yesterday. I can't recall the last time 25 states were at or above 100° (no Global Warming snipes from me today). Virginia and North Carolina did not "officially" make the century-mark list, but it was hot! The Cold Front pushing down through the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast will become nearly stationary over the Mid-Atlantic and this will bring *slightly* lower temps to the area.

I'm on the road today but will try to update later.

UPDATE, 9:20PM: At this time, Beryl is now due east of Virginia Beach, VA. Current conditions and forecast for VAB, click here. The storm at 8PM was moving a tad (5 degrees) east of north and this will continue overnight before an anticipated shift to the northeast. I still think this will remain a fish storm...but it remains possible the center clips Long Island, Rhode Island or SE Mass (Cape Cod and the Islands). Beryl should top out no higher than 60MPH but will produce swells and rip currents from the Virginia Beach/Eastern Shore up through lower New England. Note, the "official" NHC forecast keeps the center away from land altogether with a very close pass near Nantucket. Given the trof of Low Pressure that will advance toward the cyclone, I agree. Either way, gusty winds and rising swells will be the order of the day. No model guidance suggests Beryl will become a hurricane; indeed, the storm will be over cooler water on Thursday and while kicking up seas and producing thunderstorms, a gradual weakening will accompany the turn to the Northeast.

The huge dome of High Pressure over the Atlantic that we discussed here last week is helping to keep the wave train quiet from the African Coast into the Caribbean. I can't find a reason to suggest any development in the Atlantic or Caribbean is likely over the next 72 hours...to say nothing of a total lack of computer model support. I'll be working up at our area Boy Scout camp this weekend and hope things remain quiet in the tropics while I'm gone. Not only does camp have no Internet (14.4 modem on dial-up is the best you get out there!), you need to stand in exactly the right spot to have any cell service! I love working out at Scout Camp and despite the bugs, humidity, snakes and smelly tents, I always have a great time. But, it's like living on Gilligan's Island..."as primitive as can be!"

I returned this evening to find a lovely sunset picture in the Inbox. Strong storms came through my area this afternoon and some debris clouds along the mountains made for a "Kodak moment":

Picture snapped along I-64 atop North Mountain (Rockbridge/Alleghany County, VA).
To my mystery photographer: thanks...you're awesome ;)

That's it for tonight but you can stay on top of the storm at our HurricaneCenter. I'll be back Thursday morning and we'll discuss how things will work out with Beryl.

Hope you had a pretty sunset and have a good night y'all.

Tropical Depression #2 off the Carolinas!
Tuesday, July 18

The Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center issued a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement this morning for the system developing off the SE US coast. Click here for current view. Hurricane Hunter flight gets into the system around 2PM EDT today and we'll have specific data later this afternoon but this morning's visible images clearly show a swirl demonstrating there is circulation in this disturbance.

Computer models also suggest some, but not significant, development. Some tropical models bring it inland and around the west side of the OBX before recurving out to sea. My thinking is this probably does not occur as a frontal boundary will be crossing the Mid-Atlantic States on Thursday...click here...and scoot the system away from the North Carolina barrier islands. It may be close but sensible weather indicates this will not become a hurricane or track inland.

Should this become "TD #2", we will have full coverage at our HurricaneCenter. Model maps now updating in our Premium Service section. If you visit the HurricaneCenter you'll see a link to hurricane hunter reconnaissance...that will be active this afternoon.

Another update coming after the hurricane hunters do their work.

Ghastly heat and humidity continues today. The front mentioned above will help trigger strong storms today over southern IL, IN along with lower NYS and southern New England. Some storms may be severe with damaging winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes are also possible.

Visitor Comments

From John in Lexington, VA
Scott;
105 yesterday afternoon and it's 106 now as I write this on our front porch (thermometer protected and not in the sun) humidity is about 80% and what ever happened to the normal summer!

Scott replies: A chilly 98° over here, John. BTW, today's highs are the hottest it has been in the area since August, 2002...maybe we're just getting spoiled!

From Gary in Rochester, NY
Scott,

I love your service, the second year we have used it. Are your e-mails so late to get out? Your 10:56 message did not hit my machine until 3:18.

Thanks,

Scott replies: When the site gets extremely busy (always happens with new storms) the server conserves bandwidth by limiting how much mail can go out. You might say my outgoing email is partially choked so more people can access the site and after some checking I was informed I can send out only 300 emails per hour during periods of heavy load. The WeatherCenter Update list has slightly over 700 subscribers, plus all the Premium Service subscribers so many people experience a lag. I'm experimenting with an alternate method to workaround this issue and thank you for mentioning it...and thanks for the kind comments :)

UPDATE, 6:30PM: I've been watching the Hurricane Hunter flight recon (click here for information at our HurricaneCenter) and they have sniffed out 40MPH winds in the SE Quad and the storm is now TROPICAL STORM BERYL.

Convection is still being blown off the left (west) side of the storm but Beryl will face decreasing shear and these storms may wrap around the center tomorrow morning and give a more symmetrical presentation on satellite. Tropical Storm Watches will doubtlessly be changed to Warnings along the OBX as the cyclone heads NW toward the barrier islands tomorrow. No big changes from ideas presented above...the center should not cross land but will be very close to the NC coast, producing storms, wind and rain and perhaps a few isolated tornadoes. Beryl will also pass just to the east of Norfolk so Virginia Beach should begin battening down at this time as well.

While I do not believe this will become a hurricane, it is a possibility...even briefly...once over the tepid waters of the Gulf Stream. Once Beryl clears the Mid-Atlantic, folks along the coast up through the Cape and Islands will see some the storm's western quads; typically the weaker side but still windy with thunderstorms and rain...especially if the storm remains close to the coast.

Please check in here at the blog for updates and be sure to stay on top of the storm at the Mid-Atlantic WX.com HurricaneCenter.

UPDATE, 11:40PM: Quick overnight comments; NHC 11PM Advisory has Beryl about 130 miles SE of Cape Hatteras. The cyclone is drifting north but will turn more NNW on Wednesday. Winds at 40MPH/Gust 50MPH with some strengthening anticipated over the next 36 hours. Seas will build from OBX up into the Gulf of Maine and rain and gusty winds are approaching coastal NC and southeast VA. Virginia Beach will see affects from Beryl by Wednesday evening. None of the models forecast a landfall (except the NAM which is wretched with tropical systems) so confidence builds this is a fish storm that will affect the Mid-Atlantic coast through Thursday. Will update Wednesday morning in a new post.

The furnace-like heat wave continues and that may have affected Mid-Atlantic WX.com this evening as the site "flickered" a few times. Seems excessive power consumption caused some spotty power outages which in turn drained the back-up power at the host server site (Utah). They switch to a generator if the back-up batteries become drained but at that time regular power came back and it took them a few minutes to get all the servers back to AC power. Our cumulative downtime was 9 minutes this evening and we will watch things Wednesday to make sure everything is online.

Have a good night.

A Coast-to-Coast Cauldron!
And...Sneak Attack Alert For East Coast.
Monday, July 17

Unless you are located along the NW Pac coast or Downeast Maine, the blowtorch is ON! Hideous hot and humid air has settled over the entire US and will migrate east over the next two days...this means we're in the furnace for most of the week. Since this has been forewarned for several days here and the media is covering this important story, we'll move on with an advisory to limit outdoor activities when possible and drink plenty of water (I know, I sound like a Scout leader1).

This weekend's "blob" off the Carolinas has split up! Click here for our "hurricane alley" satellite and you'll see some interesting features. A Cold Front off the coast has stretched out the energy from this weekend's disturbance...with Low Pressure now visible southeast of New England. This system will head out over cooler waters and no development is expected.

Now, click here for a closer view of the Mid-Atlantic coast and one can see clouds and some thunderstorms off the Carolina coast. This is a piece of energy left behind from the weekend Low. Enhanced by the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, there is a chance this may develop and move toward the southern Outer Banks on Tuesday night. Several models are predicting a storm spins up, heads northwest toward the OBX before turning more northeast and heading up the coast. If this develops it will likely stay southeast of Cape Cod...producing a pretty good chop and some squally weather along the coast. We'll keep an eye on this and update as necessary.

By the way, if you looked at the "hurricane alley" visible satellite you may have noticed another "blob" out in the Atlantic; this will affect the upper Lesser Antilles and perhaps Puerto Rico over the 36 hours. Development is unlikely but this too will be monitored.

Time for me to make another 2 gallons of Luzianne Iced Tea...the "official tea of Mid-Atlantic WX.com.
Stay cool y'all!

UPDATE: 2:00PM. The "lower blob" off the SC coast is now Invest 97L (Premium Service members will find current model maps online). Click here for a closer view of the Mid-Atlantic coast.

Off topic: we do not do politics here but thought I'd share a video link sent to me. This is a home video with air raid sirens and incoming missiles in Haifa, Israel on Sunday. I can not imagine living like this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFlYw9awR5o . Video is interesting but I recommend not scrolling down to read comments; many are vile and unsuitable for reasoned persons. Still, the home video is significant.

Enhancements at the HurricaneCenter
Saturday, July 15

Tried to take a whole day off, but wanted to announce some upgrades and changes at our HurricaneCenter. The number of regional views has been increased for four to six and now includes: Atlantic Basin ("hurricane alley"), Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and Eastern Atlantic. Each region now sports a unique page with a higher resolution visible image plus actual (unenhanced), Infrared and water vapor. Also added "Float 2" next to "Float 1" images link. I hope you'll find these expanded graphics helpful and always invite your comments and suggestions.

All remains quiet in the tropics. An extratropical blob off NC...click here...isn't an issue and the Caribbean wave...click here... will produce rain but should not develop. Elsewhere, nothing doin'.

Well, I'll sign off for now and settle in to watch COPS...one of the few shows that is never missed. I'm an original COPS groupie and have watched every episode (probably 5 times). I have little time for TV but also watch CSI, House, MXC (right you are, Ken) and The Andy Griffith Show. The only time these show are pre-empted is when my beloved New York Yankees are on TV. I lead an exciting life, huh?

Cape Verde Wave = The Big Fizzle
Friday, July 14

The tropical wave discussed yesterday has done what most waves coming off Africa do: The Big Fizzle
[this 'scientific' phrase belongs to DT, so credit is given where due ;) ]. There is some spin down at the sea surface but convection has waned and wind shear lies in wait for this wave...and the subsequent wave coming off the coast today. Development of the wave now southwest of the CV Islands is not expected.

Nothing will develop in the Caribbean or along the East Coast this weekend. The GOM is quiet but the Canadian model is honking a storm next week near the Mexico/South Texas coast. The GFS is not developing this or any other storm...interesting because in previous years it would turn virtually every wave into a tropical cyclone.

Overall, a quiet Friday and weekend in the tropics.

Is everyone ready for the furnace? We've discussed all week the expanding heat dome featuring oppressive temperatures and humidity now shifting to the east...that will verify. Click here for Sunday's forecast temperature map.

Pending any unexpected developments, I'm hoping to take the weekend off and continue to slave over numerous projects around the house and yard. If the heat gets to you this weekend, remember what Fonzie said: "You want to stay cool, you got to BE cool".

"AAAAAyyyyy!!!"

Have a great weekend y'all!

UPDATE: 6:25PM: Nice thunderstorm rolled through my area this afternoon dumping 0.60 inches of rain in a few minutes. I saw the sun coming out behind the storm and got my camera ready in hopes of a rainbow. The result:

I never seem to be able to shoot a rainbow (wonder if that's because I'm Irish?) but today it worked out :)
Blue Ridge Mountains are seen faintly in the background. View from north of Lexington, VA toward the NE.

Stunning New Flood Images In The Photo Gallery.
And...After The Flood: "Here's Some Money For Shoes"
Thursday, July 13

I have added several recent aerial photographs of the extensive flooding in and around Binghamton, NY. The images were sent by an old friend I worked with in radio while living in Binghamton in the late 70's. These photographs are unusual in that one rarely sees an aerial view of serious flooding. The June flood set records along the Southern Tier of New York and NE Pennsylvania and I'm grateful to be able to share with you some of the scenes. While sorting all the photos I was surprised to see a view of the tiny little town where I was married!!! After some squinting, I did locate the church steeple. You'll have click here to visit the Photo Gallery to see where that was. ;)

I know rather well a couple up there who had 4.5 feet of water in their home. Despite having flood insurance, their lives now are in shambles. They visited the emergency FEMA office and were given forms and told to come back in three days. Next stop, the American Red Cross, who did give them money, but only to buy shoes. Noting else was offered. It is probable an emergency "credit card" will be provided this weekend. These folks are lucky because they have family and friends who were unscathed and quickly stepped in to help. It all sounds hauntingly reminiscent of Katrina and you gotta have hope things will improve for everyone flooded recently...to say nothing of those who may be affected by hurricane season. I took a vow after last year's non-stop rantings to not bash FEMA or any other organization until they screw up in 2006. In fact, props go those who assisted during the recent floods in New England; I've heard only positive comments. Can't say that about the response in Wilkes-Barre and Bingo-town. So, while FEMA just this week said "we're still making mistakes in Louisiana and we're sorry", and the Red Cross bureaucracy is being investigated by the FBI, people get paperwork and shoes. I'm grinding my teeth but will keep a civil tongue. For now.

New Tropical Threat Near Cape Verde Islands.
Thursday, July 13

Impressive tropical wave that rolled of Africa is showing signs of development. Satellite view here. Surface circulation is now evident and there has been some decent convection firing off today. Wind shear appears to remain rather strong (~ 20 KTS), and this mitigates rapid organization. The National Hurricane Center isn't worked up about this yet however surface circulation typically triggers an Invest and "97L" may be up within 24 hours. We're still early in the CV season so we'll need to monitor closely and see what happens. Strong High Pressure (1028mb) is forecast to hold over the next couple of days therefore this wave will probably track west or WNW into the weekend.

Elsewhere, the wave near Florida previously discussed here has crossed the Florida Keys and is entering the eastern GOM. Radar loop here...click red circle to animate. No modeling data shows any development but a wave this close to land always earn an eagle eye from me, so we'll watch that as well.

Strong storms continue along the VA/NC border at this time while a fairly strong line of storms is entering western NC.

Hot and humid sticky stuff continues to migrate east. Temps will be well into the 90's across the Deep South, Mississippi Valley and Midwest. Storms and clouds may keep Mid-Atlantic temps a tad lower, but it will remain hot and muggy. The Blowtorch Cometh!

"Same Old Story, Same Old Song And Dance"
Wednesday, July 12

Another round of rain, storms and some flooding on tap for the soaked Ohio Valley and Northeast this afternoon and tonight. Yet another Frontal Boundary is found draped from the Northeast into the Midwest and will be the focus of some severe weather. Rain and some storms already are dampening locations from WV to CT while the stronger stuff should fire up later today. There is the potential for small stream and urban flooding again today across E OH, PA, NYS and lower New England. Very muggy air now in place over most of the eastern US will keep dew points high and enhance the opportunity for some strong storms to develop; microbursts, hail and an isolated tornado are possible, particularly for central-eastern PA and downstate NY. Some storms may fire as far south as Maryland last this afternoon or evening but the greater risk looks to be from heavy rain and flash flooding.

High Pressure over the southwestern Atlantic again keeps the Mid-Atlantic states out of The Big Show, but rain will push southeast over the area on Thursday...some folks could see moderate to heavy rain tomorrow, especially from thunderstorms. I'll update here as needed, so please check back.

I will stand by my guns with regard to the hot temperatures previously advertised here...I think much of the East will get the blowtorch this weekend. I see numerous "official" forecast highs in the mid 80's for the region and think those temps will be blown away by the heat.

TROPICS: Hurricane Bud (curious name for a hurricane) is now a Cat-2 in the Eastern Pacific and is no threat to land. The cyclone will weaken over the next 72 hours. Atlantic Basin remains quiet, despite a Tropical Wave entering the Caribbean...we continue to track this wave with Premium Service model maps, but it is unlikely there will be significant development. There was a nice flare up of storms this morning but there is simply too much wind shear for this to organize and develop.

I think there's a chance the wave currently off the SE coast of Florida could become an Invest today, but there is no model support for development...to say nothing of unfavorable conditions in the Gulf. Elsewhere, nothing brewing at this time.

Today's title is one of my favorite Aerosmith songs; speaking of Aerosmith, you know things have changed when the Boston Pops (formerly with Arthur Fiedler, America's favorite curmudgeon) has Steven Tyler and Joe Perry at the July 4th concert belting out "Walk This Way"! That was just awesome! Dr. Phil was there which tarnished the show for me...in my opinion, he sums up everything that is wrong in America. But, when Aerosmith is on stage how can you not be in a good mood and rock on!

Visitor Comments

I like your comments about hurricanes and such but you need to stop writing about other subjects like Dr. Phil. What is wrong with you anyways? You think filthy songs by old men prancing their *ss on tv and stage is GOOD and Dr. Phil helps people is BAD?? That type of thinking is really what is WRONG with our Country. You need to think about it Scott, I mean it as a help.

(name/address withheld upon request)

Scott, I like them, it's always nice to hear other stuff of the main topic, and I hope they don't stop. As much as I always looked for your weather comments, the partly personal was good reading as well. I hope you'll keep them up.

Troy,
Albemarle County, VA

INVEST 96L (huh?)
Sunday, July 9

A new tropical Invest popped up this morning and I am uncertain as to the reason. A so-so tropical wave located this morning near 7.5 and 40 has no surface circulation and I don't see how it will develop...at least in the next couple of days. Satellite view here. As this is merely an Invest (short for area of investigation) and not a Tropical Depression, it is not displayed at our HurricaneCenter, however we are running model maps for Premium Service subscribers. I'll update if anything shows signs of organization. This is the third Invest so far this season that has prompted me to scratch my head. Mighty quick trigger finger in 2006.

I was up at Scout camp and some of the guys were cranking a new country song that is now stuck in my head. Have you heard "How Bout You" by Eric Church? The lyrics just kick butt while the beat will blow out your speakers. While not crazy about country, this is my favorite country song since "Hell Yeah" by Montgomery Gentry. I'm not a soccer fan and will skip today's World Cup final and have a "redneck and loud" Sunday afternoon!

Saturday Yawn.
Saturday, July 8

This morning it looks like Low Pressure developing off the Carolina coast will stay off shore and marginally impact the coast from OBX up through Cape Cod. Current satellite view here. While it is possible the Low will push rain into eastern Carolina and Virginia, I am discounting that option in favor of a track that will stay just off shore. Gusty winds and a nice chop along the OBX today as the Low heads north northeast bringing clouds, rain and increased winds...especially along the Long Island sea coast up through P-town on the Cape (the most unusual town I've ever visited!).

In the Gulf, there's no model support for any development at this time. Elsewhere, nothing brewin'.

Enjoy the delightful weather while it is here...I think the furnace cranks up again next week.

Sneak Attack Alerts!
Friday, July 7

Seems my nature is always to go looking for trouble...and early this morning I've found some. A couple of minor close to home (a/k/a Sneak Attack) systems are showing some life.

Rain and storms stretch from the Southeast US coast down into the Caribbean. This mess is stretched out due to the Frontal Boundary that just swept through the eastern US and probably defuses potential trouble this weekend. This disturbance...click HERE...will pull storms up the coast and affect the Carolinas late today and Saturday. There is a chance this could become a Tropical Depression but most likely is limited to being an OBX nuisance. Most likely, this system brings some rain, rough surf and gusty winds to the coast, especially the Outer Banks. Some computer models still want to organize this system, but I don't think that happens. The GFS remains vigorous in advertising a near miss for Cape Hatteras while other models are pulling it up and then out, well off Cape Cod and the Islands. Interests south of the Chesapeake Bay should closely monitor coastal and marine forecasts this weekend. The Navy NOGAPS model has a double whammy scenario: this mess clips NC and heads toward the Maritimes while another storm sneaks in and landfalls near the TX/LA border next Monday.

That leads us to the Gulf of Mexico. A tropical wave, visible by clicking HERE is approaching the Yucatan Peninsula and shows no signs of development. Wind shear and surface pressures become more favorable (I think) this weekend as the wave enters the SW Gulf of Mexico. I'd like another day to see how conditions unfold in the region, but there's a chance this could "go" later this weekend. We'll keep an eye on things and update developments here at the blog, as necessary.

Well, my oldest daughter and her Mom are off to see Journey and Def Leppard in concert tonight. I met both groups while working on radio back when they were huge bands. But that was long ago and recently my daughter was stunned when we were chatting about concerts and I said I've been to or worked at something like 400 of them (even more if you count all the Grateful Dead shows!). A definite fringe benefit of working in rock radio back in the old days. In a box somewhere at home is a picture of me backstage with Lynyrd Skynyrd, Charlie Daniels and The Outlaws. Now *that* was one incredible party!!! I'm getting old and just can't go to a concert I saw 25 years ago, so I'll be here looking at computer models while they are screaming "Don't Stop Believin'" and "Pour Some Sugar On Me". But, if Bruce Springsteen calls to invite me to a concert...I'm outta here in a New York (or should I say New Jersey) minute!

Visitor Comments

Scott, Journey, Def Leopard, Skynyrd, Charlie Daniels, Outlaws all great bands. I can even stomach the Grateful Dead with their cult following

BUT

THE BOSS?

There must be a 12 step program out there for you somewhere

Sounds like the Journey, Def Leopard concert will be a great one. I wish your daughter and wife a good time.

These days I can’t stay awake for Saturday Night Live. Such is the progression of life.

Chris Klein
Savannah District Army Corps of Engineers
EM Chief

Hi Scott, I'm going to break your heart too baby and say I don't really like Bruce Springsteen. Before you ban me from your blog (dont because I adore it) I'll tell you this. I was at the Jazz Festival in New Orleans and saw him on the first weekend. Are you crying you weren't with me?!?! I missed Dylan but Boss' new band sounds like home and was chilled. DMB said they were from Virginia and were friggin' nuts. If you ever run away for a good time I'll tell Beausoleil to call ya!

Trice
Donaldsonville, LA

Scott,
It looks like your family has good weather for the concert. I wouldn't mind seeing ZZ Top again. In the meantime I'll just keep cheering on the Red Sox...BTW what happened in Cleveland the other night?

Richard
Clifton Forge, VA

Scott's reply: Wow! ZZ Top is awesome...saw them on the La Grange tour (I'm old!). I'll go with you. LOL. Red Sox fans...sheesh. Let's see, the other nights in Cleveland? Yanks won 11-3 and 10-4. The game before that...hmmm...I just can't remember ;) GO YANKEES!

Flooding and Severe Storms Likely Today.
Wednesday, July 5

Scattered, but numerous, thunderstorms will quickly develop this afternoon across the Mid-Atlantic as the incessant Frontal Boundary finally clears the region tonight. Juicy air any high temps will help keep the atmosphere unstable ahead of the front. Cloudy skies will inhibit some storms from becoming severe but skies should be mostly clear over central-eastern VA up through southern NJ, so big time storms should be anticipated there later today.

Heavy rain is also a worry as evidenced by numerous Flood Watches. Rain totals exceeding one inch will be common while jackpot totals of 3+ inches may downpour in some areas east of the mountains.

While large hail is somewhat of a concern, very strong winds are the primary threat. Keep an eye on our Radar and Severe WeatherCenter...folks with outdoor activities today should be alert for changeable weather as storms approach.

MUCH cooler and drier air behind the front...temps should be 10-15 degrees cooler Thursday than yesterday with lower humidities. The air conditioners get a well deserved break into the weekend.

I'm on the road today but will keep an eye on things and try to will post this evening if possible.

HAPPY FOURTH OF JULY!
SEVERE WEATHER on Schedule For Northeast/Upper Mid-Atlantic!
Tuesday, July 4

Conditions quickly will ripen this afternoon for strong to severe storms across Ohio Valley, Upper Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Expect Severe Thunderstorm Watches and Warnings today from E OH through WV, MD, DE, PA, NJ and portions of VA. Very hot and juicy (12 Noon dew point at our wx station was 72.8°) airmass in place with ample sunshine to trigger numerous strong thunderstorms today. It is very important folks with outdoor plans stay close to shelter and monitor local forecasts. Organized lines of storms will traverse from northwest to southeast this afternoon and evening, generally, north of the WV-VA I-64 corridor. Strong winds, some hail and perhaps an isolated tornado are all in the mix. Be sure to check into our Severe WeatherCenter before heading out today.

Severe threat continues Wednesday for the Mid-Atlantic with more storms particularly targeting Tidewater and the Delmarva. We'll update that threat in another post here at the blog.

Happy Fourth of July!!! In yesterday's blog, I mentioned the July 4th Hot Air Balloon Rally here in my hometown. Check out what landed by my house this morning:

I counted six balloons overhead and must get the "real" camera ready for this evening (picture above taken on my cell phone). If I have any more Close Encounters, I'll post here on the blog.

Have a Happy and Safe Fourth of July...and...keep a close eye on the weather. Some areas mentioned earlier will see very strong storms today. Check below for status updates as today's event gets cranked up. Stay safe y'all!

UPDATE, 3:25PM: Strong storms now firing from Asheville, NC up through Charleston, WV while the Big Show continues across MD, NoVa, DE and SW PA and NJ. Severe storms will migrate toward the Metro NYC and Southern New England areas later this evening. I've noticed dewpoints have actually dropped a little this afternoon in areas with greater cloud cover and I'd expect this to inhibit strong storms. Keep a close watch on our Radar to track the storms. Biggest threat for the Mid-Atlantic will be downpours and very strong winds in the strongest t-storms.

Frontal Boundary gets into Mid-Atlantic overnight with rain...possibly heavy at times...and more storms on Wednesday. More on that later.

I am staining my deck, no easy project considering it is 60' x 12, and this bolsters my confidence it will become stormy here this afternoon.'

UPDATE, 6:30PM: Impressive line of storms firing from Martinsville/South Boston area up toward Richmond...these storms aren't associated with the Frontal Boundary but are generating strong winds and some hail. Metro DC area continues getting hammered with 1 inch hail reports from Centerville. You can stay updated on damage reports by clicking here. Overall, damaging winds will be the biggest threat from storms this evening and overnight while the potential for flooding rains is in the mix on Wednesday. Storms are moving quickly so be prepared to take cover if weather affects your July 4th evening plans.

I'll be back tonight with another update.

UPDATE, 8:55PM: Important stuff first: Next slug of rain and convection comes into Mid-Atlantic tonight into Wednesday morning. The Cold Front *finally* pushes into the region and stalls on Wednesday, producing clouds that will inhibit some of the severe stuff. Still, storms will fire and there will be ample rain in the area. Models are printing out big rainfall amounts over WV, Tidewater, Delmarva and NJ over the next 36 hours, with widespread totals exceeding three-quarters of an inch for much of the Virginias. Quite probable, especially in areas with storms on Wednesday.

Fun stuff! Hot Air Balloon Bonanza at my house today! Storms cleared the area this evening and here's what was approaching while I was out on the deck!

With twilight rapidly transitioning to sunset, I was (barely) able to get one more picture; this time the balloon is landing in the field next to my yard. I was so excited by having another Close Encounter, I nearly ran onto the portion of my deck I just stained!

Well, the local fireworks start at 9:30PM and I can watch those from my deck as well :) Plus, I'm looking forward to seeing Jupiter and the Moon rise closely to each other and then the Space Station orbit by both of them. Happy Fourth of July!

Red, White & Blue Fourth of July.
Monday, July 3

RED: Red hot temperatures across much of the Nation from Idaho all the way to Metro New York. Louisiana and coastal Texas get a break from the heat as skies will remain somewhat cloudy with rain and storms continuing to move inland.

WHITE: White flashes will traverse from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast as the latest batch of storms zip along a Frontal Boundary.

BLUE: Blue Skies for most of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern US as Tuesday's storms should remain isolated.

Focus of severe weather on Tuesday will be Mid-Mississippi Valley to Southern New England. Slight Risk of severe storms will edge southward to near the I-66 corridor of Northern Virginia while the strongest storms may develop along a line from Springfield, IL to Springfield, MA.

There's concern several lines of thunderstorms will develop with the potential for damaging winds, heavy rain and hail. Organized, strong storms will diminish in the evening but caution needs to be observed by anyone venturing out for fireworks or other July 4th activities...keep an eye on changeable conditions and be prepared to take cover, if necessary. As always, our Severe WeatherCenter will keep you up to the minute with the latest information.

On Wednesday, the Front will approach the Mid-Atlantic...this is referred to as a Back Door Front because it comes down from the North...bringing more widespread rain and convection to the area. Some models are putting down 2+ inches of rain, especially in locations where storms may train. There could be some localized flooding but not on last week' scale.

I'll update the blog as needed with new information on these potential severe weather threats.

TROPICS: Aside from the precipitation moving into the TX/LA coast, not much else to discuss in the tropics at this time.

During the days leading to each July 4th holiday the skies over my home town of Lexington, Virginia are filled with hot air balloons. We have a big rally on the grounds of Virginia Military Institute and hot air balloons take off at sunrise and sunset. Two years ago one landed in a field not 150 yards from my house. What fun! Winds are light and from the south so I may have the beautiful balloons drifting overhead this evening and my camera is ready. Click here for information about our rally. Whatever your Independence Day activities may include, I hope you have a safe holiday, remember to honor America and be sure to keep an eye on the weather. Oh...I'll be working, so light a sparkler for me! And I won't forget to wish you happy "Dog Days" ;)

Quick Sunday Comments.
Sunday, July 2

Not much "tropical punch" today as the disturbance in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico fails to organize a surface center of circulation. Given the system's proximity to land I remain skeptical there is time for a Tropical Depression. Much need rain will work into South Texas so this could be the best of all worlds! Brownsville, TX Radar loop here (click red circle to animate).

Other areas of interest have shown no signs of life and for the moment we are tracking no systems. That translates to an "almost day off". I can take my pick of activities: start working on the new shed in my back yard, put up the new rain gutters damaged by last week's rains, stain the deck and wax my Santa Fe. As they say in the Guinness commercials: Brilliant!

I'm also keeping an eye on the Northeast for potential trouble on July Fourth. A frontal boundary will hang across the Lower Ohio Valley into Southern New England...strong storms may develop Tuesday afternoon and evening in this area. Supercells and isolated tornadoes may also become a threat on Independence Day. The atmosphere should be capped below the Mason-Dixon line with a slight chance of scattered non-severe thunderstorms. Please check your local forecast and visit the blog here at Mid-Atlantic WX.com for additional updates. A sister-in-law of mine had four feet of flood water in her home near Binghamton, New York this week and I know folks up there want no talk of severe weather. Looks like High Pressure Ridging over the Mid-Atlantic will push this new threat up into areas that experienced tremendous flooding this past week.

Please check back for updates.

Back to the Blog