Scott's Jun 2007

Mid-Atlantic Radar

Scott's June, 2007 Blog
(blog descends chronologically)

INVEST 95L Unlikely to Develop Near Land...And...
Ooo-La-La Weekend For Much of The Region!
Saturday, June 30

Rather wimpy Low Pressure over South Florida has produced copious amounts of rain but is disorganized this morning. I know many folks get "jiggy" with every new Invest, but this is over land which makes it extremely difficult to spin up. Add persistent wind shear (that will weaken somewhat) and my only forecast comment is: Next!

No Recon flight today and while tomorrow remains tentative, I'm skeptical they'll be in the air. That said, rain and storms will continue today over the Sunshine State with the specter of some severe storms, but this isn't going to organize ...at least here.

At this time I see nothing brewing on the tropical horizon...but July will soon be here. As I've remarked here for years: anything before July 15th is a bonus.

A trof associated with the Cold Front that crossed the Lakes and Mid-Atlantic will assure Invest 95L goes out to sea. Looking at the models, I could make the case this becomes a Depression well off the Florida coast and south of Myrtle Beach, SC...but that is not in my forecast right now.

The frontal boundary mentioned above will creep into the Carolinas today and strong storms...perhaps with moderately sized hail...should develop today. Check our Severe WeatherCenter for current info. North of the boundary will be delightful! Muggy dew points are being whisked away for temps in the lower 80's and much lower humidity. Sunday should be awesome as well! We deserve it, so unless you're in the Carolinas today, get out and enjoy. That's an order!!! ;-)

Severe Threat Friday in Mid-Atlantic...And...
New Invest 95L over Florida.
Friday, June 29

SEVERE: Cold Front previously discussed here finally moving into region and will eventually make it to northern NC late tonight, then stall out. Lines of storms should fire off this afternoon and evening along the boundary...some Pulse and Multicell storms could be severe with downbursts and hail. Check our Severe WeatherCenter for current info. Heavy cloud cover and low severe weather parameters point toward storms and areas of heavy rain especially south of the VA I-64 corridor. NC will have less clouds and heating may help to crank up strong storms this evening.

North of the frontal boundary, cooler High Pressure builds down from the Great White North this weekend! Temps will be seasonable with lower humidity and dew points. A pleasant change...just in time for the weekend!

TROPICS: Low Pressure over South Florida is now Invest 95L. This morning's original NHC Plan of the Day (POD) for reconnaissance did not schedule recon for Invest 95L, but this has been amended and a Sunday afternoon mission is now tentatively scheduled.

There is ample convection off the east coast of Florida, but I don't see any real signs of spin and am not enthused about future development. Wind shear should hold at 20-30 knots through Saturday and even if low pressure begins to organized over water, it will be close to land. I know it is the weekend but the Sunshine State could use rain...and that is what looks to be in store from Invest 95L. If (big "if") Low Pressure can begin to spin by the Bahamas, this might be interesting next week; however, a trof will be coming down off the US Mainland and should sweep this out well away from land.

We're running model maps in our Premium Service section and I'll have another update on Saturday...sooner if necessary.

Severe Weather Possible Thursday...Perhaps Friday Morning
Wednesday, June 27

The heat is on thanks to a Bermuda High type Ridge over the region. This Ridge will ebb east tomorrow as a trof of Low Pressure begins to approach the East and Mid-Atlantic. I'm not honking a major severe weather event however as a Cold Front begins to advance on the region there will be increasing opportunity for rain and thunderstorms. Areas of ample sunshine north of the VA I-64 corridor are most likely to see any strong storms that do develop. These storms will be associated with the trof out ahead of the Cold Front...the actual boundary should cross the are late Thursday night into Friday morning. The Cold Front may produce more organized lines of storms Friday morning although at that time of day they should not be severe. Visit our Severe WeatherCenter for current info.

The last four evenings I've been treated to a Severe Thunderstorm Warning in my home County. In fact, this evening's storm blew the roof off of several building in Buena Vista, VA...just down the road from here. Of course, I was not here at the time and naturally I received emails asking about the "tornado". While I have not been down the road to check things out, I did speak to the National Weather Service this afternoon; my hunch is this was a strong microburst. These localized downbursts of air can exceed 80-100MPH and hit the surface with very little warning. I've been out chasing and driven under a microburst and it is not a joy ride!. These storms have also knocked out Verison Wireless service in the area...a first! Don't think I've ever had five consecutive days of Severe Thunderstorm Warnings so I'm kind of rooting for one more storm tomorrow.

The storminess clears Friday evening out as High Pressure builds down from the North behind the Cold Front. Weekend temps look awesome: low-mid 80's, lower dew points and mostly dry!

Beware the Blowtorch!
Saturday, June 23

Now that Summer has "officially" arrived, we'll get our first shot of true Triple H weather this week! Hazy, hot and humid air will pump up over the Lakes, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast as High Pressure builds in over the region. Sunday should be a pleasant day with warm temps and "reasonable" humidities...but the furnace turns on by Monday afternoon...and gets cranked up on Tuesday! Expect widespread readings exceeding the 90° mark all the way into Upstate NY and Southern New England. Wednesday the mercury goes up more with temps into the lower-mid 90s...even my home town of Portland, Maine will top 90° on Wednesday.

Dew points at and above 65° will make it feel quite muggy across much of the Eastern US.

Three straight days of 90 degree plus temps is the benchmark for a "heat wave" and that should be achieved for most locations in the Mid-Atlantic this week!

A Cold Front will cross the Lakes on Thursday, bringing some rain and cooler temps but it looks like the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will cook on Thursday and be very hot still on Friday before the front reaches us.

My Iced Tea maker will be in over drive next week cranking out Luzianne Iced Tea!!!

INVEST 94L Near Yucatan (yawn). Next!
Friday, June 15

A broad and unimpressive area of Low Pressure over the northwestern Caribbean is dubbed Invest 94L. Aside from the calendar indicating we're in hurricane season, I don't know why. Click here for current view of Caribbean satellite. Harsh wind shear is tamping down any potential development right now but shear will diminish somewhat over the Eastern GOM and Florida this weekend. Still, I am not forecasting development from this weakening tropical wave. The 6Z "hurricane models" did not run this morning (a sign the Invest already is on life support). Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly out this afternoon and I will be surprised if the flight is not cancelled.

I think the better bet is for minor pieces of energy to move across eastern Cuba and over Florida...rather than an organized tropical system. This, by the way, is somewhat depicted by this morning's 6Z GFS. Florida forecasts for clouds, rain and some storms are on the money.

The stubborn Upper Level Low (ULL) off the New England coast and a trof hung over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern US will finally begin moving away this weekend. This is mentioned because the system has persisted for several days and kept temps well below normal along and inland of the coastline. The Invest is not expected to be organized nor will winds steer a consolidated area of Low Pressure up toward the departing trof. My thinking is moderating temperatures and clearing skies for the Eastern US with storms and rain for Florida. No "Chantal". Next!

I will be away from the office this weekend. Happy Father's Day to my fellow Dads!

Early Cape Verde Wave Becomes INVEST 93L
Sunday, June 10

I don't get too worked up over Cape Verde waves for many reasons: a typical hurricane season will see 40+ such waves roll off Africa, the vast majority fall apart and satellite doesn't show mitigating factors like SAL, shear and SST. Even if a so-called CV wave organizes, it is several days from the Islands and a week from the Mainland. That said, the latest wave in the Eastern Atlantic is...or was...impressive, especially for June (much too soon for CV Season to get underway).

Current enhanced view (click for more images):

A couple weeks ago I opined there was no chance of "Barry" earning a name, only to be foiled by the NHC (still not sold it was totally tropical, but anyway...), and I will make the same declaration with this Invest. I do not believe this will become a tropical depression or "Chantal".

Previous waves have met their demise just west of where Invest 93L is location this morning. The wave will encounter less favorable conditions on Monday with cooler water temps (SSTs) and wind shear will increase to 25 knots or so. Since TPC/NHC does mention development is possible before a harsher environment is encountered, I won't totally discount this from happening, but I am not forecasting a long track tropical cyclone with this wave.

As always, named storms are tracked at our HurricaneCenter. We are generating limited model maps for Invest 93L in our Premium Service section.

Off-topic: Over in our Photo Gallery, we've added a couple pictures taken in June, 2006 of a waterspout at Norfolk Naval Shipyard and two spectacular pictures from last February's ice storm. Click Here.

Barry Barrels Up The Coast With Rain And Some Storms.
Sunday, June 3

This morning the remnant center of Barry's circulation is offshore Charleston/Myrtle Beach, SC and is heading Northeast. Rainfall generally remains light for the Mid-Atlantic region although eastern NC/VA and the Delmarva/NJ areas could see totals exceeding one inch or more. These are always challenging events inland along the mountains (Floyd '99 virtually nothing/Isabel '03 six to twelve inches along the mountains) but upsloping can squeeze out higher totals particularly along the lee side of the Blue Ridge. Flood Watches near the coast are extended from North Carolina to Cape Cod.

Slight risk for severe weather today for eastern Carolinas/VA and the Delmarva Peninsula as the dry slot pinwheels in and isolated thunderstorms should develop. Check our Severe StormCenter for the latest as we should expect bands of thunderstorms to rotate in across North Carolina, Virginia and Delmarva today.
Earlier this morning there was a Tornado Warning for New Bern, NC.

You can see the dry slot in this Water Vapor image:

Rain and gusty winds track up the seaboard and into Southern New England tonight (I'm a New York Yankees fan and the way they're playing I'd be grateful if it pours at Fenway Park tonight!).

Next Front comes through the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday but significant rain is unlikely. Once the boundary clears the region, a Subtropical (Bermuda) High will pump up temps and dew points for the end of the week and into next weekend.

TROPICS: Nothing brewing although wind shear is down over the Western Caribbean. The long range GFS model is trying to start something in ten days. I do pay attention to these "blips" but a hurricane research chum of mine has a good opinion: Ten days out don't pan out!

Battered Barry Downgraded Near Tampa...Let It Rain, Let It Rain, Let It Rain.
Saturday, June 2

Barry now a Depression and sloshing inland near Tampa, Florida this morning. Wind shear is doing its job and Barry has sported a "naked center" on approach to Florida with precip and convection displaced well to the east. Net result is heavy rain (a good thing!) for much of the region. Tornado threat should diminish by this evening, so this system should ultimately produce far more benefits than hazards.

Remnant Low Pressure will track just off the GA/SC Low Country coast and being devoid of tropical characteristics (not to mention a harsh environment), redevelopment isn't expected. Heavy rain will overspread the Carolinas on Sunday reaching SE VA tomorrow night. This is not to suggest Barry "goes away"... remnant circulation along or just offshore can hold together to produce a Gale Center capable of strong winds and white-capped seas up to and including the New Jersey coastline. The system can also produce strong thunderstorms along/close to the I-95 Corridor from NC to New England. Coastal and marine interest in the East should monitor local and marine forecasts.

Florida Folks! Please send us your photos/videos of Barry so we may share with all in our Photo Gallery.
Details HERE.

Tropical Storm Barry (?) Heads To Florida...Then Up The Coast?
Friday, June 1

I had the right idea about a storm in the GOM (see below) and am stunned we have Tropical Storm Barry. Figures...it is the first official day of hurricane season! My previous forecast of strong wind shear has held; indeed shear of 20-25MPH persists and will increase...yet Barry nonetheless has organized. Very unusual.
I'm in a jam here because going contrary to NHC's naming the storm gives the appearance I'm whining. However, if this IS a tropical storm, it won't be long as I can't see how Barry won't simply morph into a frontal blob (as suggested by this afternoon's GFS) as the Warm Front pushes up over Florida. Heck, even the GFDL develops nothing...but I'll leave it there as I don't want to be considered a cry baby!.

While surprised this has become the second named tropical cyclone of the season, I am not forecasting Barry to become this year's first Atlantic Basin hurricane; time and wind shear will make strengthening highly unlikely. Still, we may have a 60MPH tropical storm making landfall late tomorrow.

The center at 8PM is SW of Tampa, W of Key West. check our "Quik Clik" Radar links at the HurricaneCenter and you'll see heavy rain moving in. Three-six inches of rain...with isolated tornadoes...is possible over the Peninsula as Barry heads toward Big Bend-west/central Florida coast on Saturday. Florida folks should now be monitoring local forecasts.

NHC forecast track and most models take the storm either just inland or along the Southeast coast on Sunday. I'm bullish the storm will truly be non-tropical by the time it is off Florida and over the western Atlantic...and taking a look at Charleston to Wilmington. The region is rain starved and Barry should push moderate to heavy rain inland from Florida into South Carolina. We'll should expect to see this precip continues into the Mid-Atlantic, although the west side of weakening tropical systems often are shut down when a dry slot wraps in as the cyclone blows out and loses tropical characteristics. We'll have a full discussion on Saturday as Barry bores in on Florida.

As this is typed, I am under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for the third straight day. Certainly looks like a tropical storm out my window: tremendous rain and lightning, small hail and winds to 50MPH. Wow! This is getting to be like Florida! Barry has kept me indoors for this one so I was unable to get out and go "hail hunting". Just like two days ago, this cell dumped over 1.70 inches of rain in under 45 minutes. Won't be long and I'll be able to look out the window and watch the grass grow.

Another Barry discussion late Saturday morning.

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