Scott's June 2006 Blog

Mid-Atlantic Radar

Scott's June, 2006 Blog

Despite 2 New "Invests", Mostly Quiet In The Tropics.
Friday, June 30

Two areas of interest in the tropics and an addition region to keep an eye on. Today we're watching the extreme SW Gulf of Mexico...just off the Mexico coastline...where Invest 94L is being monitored. This "blob" is forecast to track northwest toward the Corpus Christi, Texas region and will bring clouds and welcomed rain to South Texas, but I'm skeptical this will organize into a storm. Can't rule out a Tropical Depression but I believe "Beryl" will remain elusive, at least with this system.

Tonight, a possible disturbance we discussed a week ago has popped up well north of Puerto Rico and being tracked as Invest 95L. This system, if one can call it that, is producing disorganized thunderstorms and as noted previously here, will plow into wind shear and development would be slow to occur. With a bulging Bermuda High anticipated there is a chance this feature could get close to the Mid-Atlantic Coast next week so we'll watch and wait.

I've been rather strung out this week with our big Cub Scout Day Camp, but did notice a couple models are antsy over the tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands. Normally, I wouldn't mention this but with many of you enjoying the holiday weekend I should note some long range guidance puts this wave into the Gulf of Mexico next week. Such a track would involve missing or surviving the Islands and so I am not enthused at this time...but don't want something in the GOM after the Fourth without an early comment. Folks in that area may want to stop by the blog over the weekend and see if anything is developing.

I'm unimpressed with anything in the tropics at this time while expecting no development by the new Invests.

Many of you will be enjoying a long Fourth of July holiday weekend and I invite you to check in here at the blog. I don't get many days off during hurricane season ;) and so I'll post updates over the long holiday weekend.

(Probably) Quiet Tropics and Looking Up on July 4th.
Thursday, June 29

Tropical Wave that passed across the Lower Windward Islands produced strong thunderstorms and winds in excess of Tropical Depression strength. This disturbance (Invest 93L) remains a tropical wave and has failed to develop a Low Pressure center at the surface. Quoting Rhett Butler: "Frankly my dear...", I do not think it will develop, at least anytime soon. While this wave is heading Northwest toward Hispanolia, there is vigorous wind shear in its path so any development likely would not occur until clearing the island...then it may be disrupted by Cuba. Overall, the anticipated wind shear and projected track lead me to think this doesn't get organized and if it does, not for a few days (but potentially close to the US). We'll continue to monitor and provide Premium Service subscribers the latest maps as long as the tropical models stay with it.

When you're looking up at fireworks on July 4th you will be in for a special treat as Jupiter and the Moon will appear in the twilight side by side. Look toward the Southwest sky and Jupiter will brightly be observed to the left of the Moon. If that's not enough to take your eye off the fireworks...how about a spaceship, too? The International Space Station (ISS) will pass nearby Jupiter and the Moon...very cool. Using Skywatch 2.0, I entered the Zip Code for my hometown of Lexington, Virginia and discovered the ISS will pass by at 9:40PM. Perfect! Just in time for fireworks, Jupiter and the Moon. You can do the same for your hometown, click this Skywatch 2.0 link. This is all visible with the naked eye, but I'll blow the dust off my son's telescope and get a great view.

I've had some emails asking about our Cub Scout Day Camp in the wake of the recent floods (see previous blogs). Happy to report we have 70 (mostly screaming, hyper) boys who are all having a wonderful week. Waters have receded and while we can't swim (debris laden brown water isn't appealing), camp is a blast. And, thank you for the kind comments regarding my last blog. The missing girl's body was recovered one mile downstream yesterday. Whether it is a breathtaking catastrophe like Katrina, or a single loss out in the rural hills of Virginia, every weather related death hurts.

Flooding Diminishes in Mid-Atlantic, Ongoing in Northeast..
Tuesday, June 27

Usually, I insert an Update into a blog that originated on the same day, however conditions are finally changing so I've started a new topic. Even with Invest 91L lurking in the region, persistent, heavy rain is vacating the Mid-Atlantic. Generally speaking, areas south and west of I-66 and the I-95 corridor are now rain-free. Precipitation is being squeezed in a 75 mile wide band from Metro DC and Baltimore through PA and Upstate New York. This area has seen several inches of rain already and locations near Washington, Harrisburg, Wilkes-Barre and Binghamton continue getting crushed with damaging, flooding rains. Click Here to see today's list of severe weather warnings. Several areas are approaching *record* levels of river flooding but rivers and streams in VA, WV and NC will begin receding overnight and on Wednesday. Remnant tropical rainfall from Invest 91 will become entrained in the frontal system and keep the precipitation coming throughout much of the day Wednesday. The Delmarva Peninsula gets it overnight and the rain band will shift east Wednesday morning and should impact the NYC area in the morning. It will take until Thursday for this mess to finally blow itself out over the Northeast.

Much of the Mid-Atlantic will dawn in a fog due to all the moisture but we'll see more sun than clouds and you may be asking: "what the heck is that big bright orb in the sky?" Pulse-type thunderstorms will pop up during the day but should be scattered and by their nature, not severe. Things heat up for the weekend and we all should have a chance to cut grass, clear debris and dry out the grill for the Fourth of July holiday.

A sad nearby story is making it to the news wires; an 8 year old girl was swept away in a flooded creek today. The incident occurred in Alleghany County, VA (map here) and as this is written (11PM), the search will resume in the morning. Dammit! I hate stories such as this. I have 3 kids, work for the Boy Scouts of America and am out with youth every week; a missing child rips my guts out. I have a buddy who does swift water rescue and he preaches they usually have one hour tops, to rescue a person. These incidents absolutely break your heart because they are usually avoidable. Fresh wounds are torn open tonight because a friend of my daughter died in a river drowning accident here just two months ago. I do not know the missing girl but that does not matter. Every child is precious and that is what matters. For people like me who love extreme weather, nights like this suck.

Tropical Trouble Off The Southeast Coast.
Tuesday, June 27

Current satellite view at the time (10:40AM) clearly shows a center developing off the Carolina coast. Click HERE. Hurricane Hunters are in the air and I'd think they'll find at least a Tropical Depression out there...possible a weak tropical storm...if so, it will be named Beryl. If you've read previous blogs you'll know this is a bit of a surprise to me but the important point is rain, wind will affect eastern sections of North Carolina, Virginia and also the Delmarva. This juicy tropical moisture will eventually slide into the moisture associated with the Stationary Front. This should be the final slug of heavy rain in this now 5-day event. It is likely rain totals will exceed 3 inches in areas that have slow moving bands of storms; elsewhere we probably can expect 1-2 inches total rainfall for today. Coastal and eastern sections from NC though NJ may experience some strong to severe thunderstorms as this system organizes and approaches land. Isolated tornadoes will also be a threat.

Our HurricaneCenter will present great coverage of this event as soon as it becomes classified while Premium Service continues to crank out model maps and data.

Well, I challenged this storm to show me it would develop offshore and make landfall in NC, and it looks to do just that! I have been terrible with this system; thought it would become a TD or "Beryl" before Florida but it did not. Thought it would track through the Southeast and it forms a Low off the coast. Some storms are like that. Storms are like people in that sometimes you meet someone and *snap*, you hit it off right away. This storm and I definitely are not like that at all; I'm ready to be done with this pest and kick it to the curb.

More today as the Hurricane Hunters report the latest information. Please check back again today!

UPDATE, 3:00PM: Hurricane Hunters continue to fly the storm...now a mere 35 miles SW of Cape Fear, NC. The have *not* found a closed off center of circulation at the surface (required to become a tropical cyclone). The likelihood is this will not have time and space to become Tropical Storm Beryl...however...tropical storm conditions WILL be experienced along the OBX and in eastern North Carolina. The Radar loop out of Wilmington, NC is here...click the red circle on the radar page to animate. I note a Tornado Warning is up for Carteret County, near Morehead City, NC; this indicates strong storms coming in are capable of some rotation so be alert for this situation to continue into this evening.

At this time, NO Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm. But, Tropical Storm conditions ARE being experienced along eastern NC.

Will update this and the inland flooding situation later today.

Mid-Atlantic Flood Update.
Monday, June 26

Widespread light to moderate flooding continues across much of the region, in particular, along and near the mountains as well as the DC and Baltimore Metro areas. Breaks in the action today will be short lived as sunshine pokes out in many areas and it will take little time for this to fire up thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. These storms will produce heavy rain (2"/hr or more), so locations beneath that have experienced heavy rain may flood again. Atmosphere is quite juicy with tropical moisture and there could even be an isolated tornado.

The nearly Stationary Front will ebb to the west and persons along or just east of the front will be targeted for the strongest thunderstorms today.

The moisture from "Invest 91L", now over Florida, will track up along the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic and will bring gusty winds to Florida and the Southeast, along with some heavy rain. As the Low moves north into the Mid-Atlantic, another batch of tropical moisture will be pumped in along the coast and then inland. This should produce another batch of heavy rain late tonight into Tuesday night...another round of flooding is possible from this system! Check back here at the blog for an evening update.

Our big Cub Scout Day Camp is a victim of this flooding. I arrived at the park this morning to find a bridge underwater and a debris log across the road (picture HERE). Can't take boys out near that stuff...although the scouts seem to love wild weather almost as much as I do...so everyone was sent home. We'll regroup on Wednesday.

TROPICS: Invest 91L over Florida is inland and will not develop into a Tropical Storm. There is a slight chance the center gets just off-shore of South Carolina and *could* start to organize. This, is remote but a possibility.

Invest 93L, well Southeast of the Windward Islands is better organized but will run into harsh wind shear in a couple of days. Any development will be slow and I am not enthusiastic this will get going.

Blob North of Puerto Rico: disorganized and most models have given up on development. It may get pulled together but it too would run into wind shear.

Hope to be back this evening...please check in later today.

UPDATE: 9:25PM: This update may be titled "Stuck in the Middle With You" (you're really old and have a great memory if you remember Steelers Wheel! And why does every Saturday night bar band still play that song?). The region remains stuck in the middle between an Upper Low over Illinois and High Pressure over the Atlantic Ocean. In between, the contemptible Stationary Front languishes inland from Maine to Georgia. This Front and the area east of it continue to see heavy rainfall stream in from the South and the Southeast. Severe thunderstorms did erupt this afternoon...and there were a couple Tornado Warnings in Virginia (including the City of Martinsville), although no tornadic damage has been reported.

Those who have seen little precipitation this afternoon and evening may falsely believe it's over. Nope! We're also in the middle between the Stationary Front along the Appalachians and deep moisture coming up from the tropical system (Invest 91L) over Florida. To demonstrate this, check out one my most used weather tools: the Water Vapor Loop...click HERE. Review this loop to see where there is dry air and where there is moisture. More importantly, it shows where the moisture is coming from and where it is heading. If you look at the WVL this evening, you'll see very deep moisture coming up from Florida and Georgia. That, by the way is tropical moisture associated with Invest 91L. You'll also easily see another plume of moisture coming into the Carolinas and Virginia off the Atlantic. These are the prime areas for the next batch of heavy precipitation overnight and Tuesday. As a result, widespread 1-3 inch rain totals are expected over the next 36 hours. Copious rainfall is expected along and near the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge and Alleghenies, but coastal areas up through the Jersey Shore will also see heavy rainfall and gusty winds. The Water Vapor Loop also shows why Metro DC and Baltimore has been absolutely crushed by flooding rains...and more is coming on Tuesday. As "Invest 91" moves up into the Carolinas, moisture coming off the Atlantic will be enhanced and rainfall will come down in torrents over many areas. This, of course, will trigger another round of flooding in areas that have become saturated over the past four days.

The Stationary Front that has truly overstayed its welcome will begin to shift east late Tuesday and (I think) will be just off shore on Thursday morning. Tuesday will be a wash out for most and one hopes for improving weather on Wednesday.

TROPICS: Invest 91L may be spending a brief period of time off shore. This was my "slight scenario" mentioned above in today's earlier blog. To give you an idea of what kind of track this Low Pressure area may take, I saved this afternoon's close-up from the Premium Service section of the web site...click HERE. As seen, Myrtle Beach, SC is the area where this Low was forecast to come inland. I think that is too far north and it will only briefly be over water, coming in around Hilton Head or Savannah. We've been tracking this pest for several days and there is a slight chance it finally could become Tropical Depression #2. When someone tells me something I don't believe, they gotta do something to prove it. Same thing with this Low...I'll believe it when I see it. Just inland or just off shore, heavy rain and breezy conditions are coming from Charleston, SC up through Norfolk/Virginia Beach. We'll see how things develop.

No changes to any of the other tropical ideas presented here earlier.

All this rain reminds me of a Cub Scout joke:
Why did Noah have to punish and discipline the chickens on the Ark?
Because they were using "fowl" language.

If it keeps flooding I too will be using "fowl" language so I'll sign off for now.

No Rest For The Weary (that would be me).
Sunday, June 25

(8:35PM) Looks like the blogs will be coming fast and furious now.

TROPICS: Invest 91L (former Bahama Blob) now an area of Low Pressure over Florida. This will not become a storm but the Low will track up Florida and through the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. No changes from ideas presented below...moisture becomes absorbed by the current Mid-Atlantic mess.

Invest 92L (East of Bermuda, referenced in today's earlier blog) has been dropped. Nuthin' doin'.

Invest 93L is new this evening...so new there's not yet any modeling data. This is located Northeast of South America, several hundred miles SE of the Windward Islands. Low has developed and will be monitored (Premium Service subscribers will find model maps on this Invest later this evening).

Next up: the disturbance North of Puerto Rico will move NE out over the open Atlantic before turning west toward the US. This may become Invest 94L on Monday. Synoptic weather strongly suggests IF this develops it will recurve off the coast and toward the Maritimes. Hard to forecast a storm yet to develop but the models suggest this and I think the weather pattern this week will support this.

Heavy rain continues to train across the region this evening. Over 18 Flood Warnings up as this is typed with the entire region except eastern VA and NC under a Flood Watch. Monday night will see an increase in moisture as the energy and rain from "Invest 91L" moves up into the area. Tuesday will see another round of flooding downpours, again in localized areas.

More as the Invests get organized.

Flooding Potential Continues (but more limited) and
My First Tropical Bust!
Sunday, June 25

Flash flood threat will persist into the work week, although it appears less likely New England again gets doused. Dastardly Stationary Front stalled over Mid-Atlantic is the track on which several disturbances (Short Waves) will ride along over the next few days. These systems will keep mostly cloudy and muggy conditions in place and will produce heavy rain fall in localized areas; hence, and expansive area of Flash Flood Watches remain in effect. Mountainous areas from the Tennessee Valley up into the Catskills will see the heaviest rain although the Metro areas nearer the coast may experience brief gully washers. The area to watch today will be along the Alleghenies and Blue Ridge from W NC through WV and the Shenandoah Valley of VA. Some areas that have been thumped with 4 inches or more may see additional 1-2 inch downpours over the next several days so continue to monitor conditions in your area. There is another reason I know it will be rainy this week: Cub Scout Day Camp begins tomorrow and it *always* rains when I'm involved with scouts and the outdoors. I like to remind them of my motto: "if it ain't damp, we don't camp."

The "Bahama Blog" has provided my first bust of the year. Only yesterday, I was forecasting a Tropical Depression or weak Tropical Storm coming in along the Florida east coast. The disturbance (Invest 91L) has faced excessive dry air and some wind shear and is a broad area of Low Pressure without any low level circulation. It is ebbing west over the Sunshine State and could get over the Gulf...where conditions are more favorable. It is far more likely there will be no development and the low will turn and head toward a trof along the southeast coast below the Stationary Front. The result is it will be absorbed into this frontal system and keep the region muggy and wet.

In the Premium Service weather section of the web site we are tracking another disturbance out in the Atlantic (Invest 92L). This Low is not tropical at this time and is located out where Zeta formed last year. I am not enthused, despite a few models suggesting this will move west toward the Mid-Atlantic coast later in the week. Were anything to develop, it would be slow and take several days to get near Bermuda. We'll continue to monitor and run model maps at Premium Service.

Models are backing off potential midweek development north of Puerto Rico. Wind shear should remain rather persistent in that area, so I am skeptical organization is eminent. Later on Monday conditions should become more favorable.

I'll update the blog later today, if necessary.

From Troy, near Charlottesville, VA:
Since Friday morning, I have had 3.47" of rain here in Albemarle County, just south of Charlottesville. There are other parts of the county south of here who have had more than twice this much. We have had several hard showers since Friday night, including a quick 1.38" this afternoon. Thanks again for your great website, it is very helpful to me and my family, as well as many others.

From John, in Alleghany County, VA:
Saturday evening we had such a fierce light and sound show that we lost power twice. Sunday it was just the gentle sound of Niagara Falls most of the evening. Looking forward to six more of the same, if the local forecasters are correct.

Thanks for the updates, guys! I've been watching rain totals near Covington, Potts Creek and Callaghan ...very impressive. And the Albemarle/Charlottesville area is again under a Flood Warning. Sometimes, a price is paid for living along these beautiful mountains. Thanks for the kind words about the website, too ;) -SL-

NC and VA Flooding: Why Weather is Amazing
Quick INVEST 90L Comments...And Another One Next Week ?
Saturday, June 24

Friday's storms have produced moderate flooding and flash flooding in localized areas. I was looking at the Severe Weather Center a short while ago and noticed something odd: Albemarle County, NC and Albemarle County, VA both have Flash Flood Warnings...wonder when the last time something like that happened?

Plenty of wind damage and hail reports from Tennessee up into Virginia. Click here for the current severe weather reports map.

The type of weather event forecast and experienced on Friday can be very challenging to predict. We know there will be storms and some will be quite strong or severe, but exactly where is tough to pin down. Fronts or stratus rain is easy...these systems are not. That's because the thunderstorms that develop frequently do so in groups called Multicell Clusters: a group of storms moving as a single unit, each cell in a different stage of the thunderstorm life cycle. As the Multicell Cluster moves, each cell takes a turn being the strongest in the group. New storms usually fire up along the back or upwind side (called the flanking line) of the Cluster and the older "spent" cells in the front or downwind. Here's a picture from our Photo Gallery. If a Multicell Cluster passes overhead, several thunderstorms can pass one area and this is why these storms often produce Flash Flooding in localized areas. Multicell Clusters are feast or famine storms: witness how things played out in my immediate area. Two Multicell Clusters passed nearby in the vicinity of Lynchburg, VA; flash flooding has resulted in localized areas as 6 to 8 inches of rain fell! Just up Interstate-81, a Pulse type thunderstorm preceded another Multicell...4 inches of rain fell in these areas. Just to the south of Charlottesville, these storms produced over 6 inches of rain! With these huge rain totals piling up, you'd think I'd get in on the nearby action. Nope. My lightning detector was recording over 300 strikes a minute with 100 miles so they were all around me but my total rainfall: 0.01 inches. It is fascinating how 6 inches of rain can pile up and 20 miles away remains bone dry.

This is similar to what happens when a tropical storm or hurricane comes inland and feeder bands spiral over land. If you are under that band, it is not uncommon to see tornadoes and rain rates of 3 inches or more per hour. And of course winter storms can deliver the same type of surprise where someone gets a foot just a few miles from someone who sees just an inch or two. That's what makes weather so much fun!

Flooding certainly isn't fun and one hopes the ongoing unsettled weather drops precipitation in areas away from tonight's flash flooding. The Cold Front has stalled out over the area and this will keep scattered showers and storms in the forecast well into the upcoming work week.

TROPICS: Our "Bahama Blob" is currently designated as an INVEST. Computer models spin this up to a storm over the next couple of days and guidance bring it inland around Jacksonville, Florida and then up inland. This is not a done deal but I think this system will become at least a Tropical Depression...may not have time to become Beryl. Not to mention there remains dry air and wind shear so my "first guess" is a T.D or a weak (50MPH or under) Tropical Storm Beryl. As soon as it becomes a T.D, it will be displayed at our HurricaneCenter. Premium Service subscribers will find current models on Invest 90 now available.

I'm zoned in on the models for possible trouble in the Atlantic next week as a wave may spin up and head west, possibly toward NC/VA/Delmarva. It is very difficult for a tropical cyclone this far north to turn and charge into the Mid-Atlantic...but...I believe the models are onto something with a new developing system and we'll closely monitor the chance for two storms in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

Well, I tend to get wordy when there is severe weather to talk about so we'll close for now. I'm not sure if I get up too early to be up this late...or I'm up too late to get up so early! Anyway, there's a pillow calling my name so I hope you have a great weekend. We'll try to comment on our tropical opportunities later today or Sunday.

Severe Friday and Possible Tropical Twist.
Thursday, June 22, 2006

A very active night with numerous storms from the Ohio Valley, WV and PA that do not bode well for Friday. A Cold Front is slowly advancing into muggy and hot air setting the stage for another round of storms on Friday. High Pressure that has kept much of the area "high and dry" will weaken and shift...allowing the frontal boundary to drape from the Tennessee Valley up to New England on Friday. Strong to severe storms with damaging wind and hail are the primary risks. Tornadoes are not anticipated at this time (most storms will be Multi-Cell, not Supercells), but isolated tornadoes are not ruled out!

Overnight rumbling continues for eastern PA, NJ and portions on NYS. On Friday, action will resume in the Tennessee Valley and bubble up through Virginia and progress Northeast. Be alert for rapidly changing conditions on Friday. I'll try to get a morning update posted here in the blog so I hope you'll check back in during the day.

I am continuing to closely observe developments near the Bahamas...this could bring in alot of rain from Florida up into the Mid-Atlantic. Right now, it appears Low Pressure will head towards Florida, bringing rain and some storms. It is possible this area of disturbed weather (could be an "Invest" on Friday) will head up toward the Cold Front...this brings rain to the parched Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Can't rule out this precipitation chugging up the front and getting into New England; just what they do not want to hear! Keep an eye on this situation at our HurricaneCenter.

Be sure to check the forecast and any Watches on Friday morning; I think it will be a busy day!

UPDATE FRIDAY, 8:05AM: Storms have resumed early this morning. Cold Front slowly ebbs into Mid-Atlantic region today and then will stall...probably hanging around for a few days. This morning's storms will give way to stronger, possibly severe convection this afternoon; best bet is eastern KY to NYC. This includes WV and most of western VA and NOVA. Rain could be heavy at times tonight. You'll note Flood Watches are already up for some areas due to the possibility of storms training along the same areas...this can produce heavy rainfall over some locations. Impulses will move along the frontal boundary into next week making for a period of unsettled weather. We DO need the rain.

TROPICS: Wind shear is forecast to lessen over the next 36 hours and the "Bahama blob" may become better organized. If or how this plays into the stalled Front across the Mid-Atlantic remains to be seen but I am continuing to closely monitor the area.

Updates here as needed today.

Under Attack!
Tuesday, June 20, 2006

Another non-weather blog (sorry!). Returned to the office this evening to see our web site server has been the victim of something called a DoS...Denial of Service attack. Here's the definition:

Denial-of-Service attack, a type of attack on a network that is designed to bring the network to its knees by flooding it with useless traffic. For all known DoS attacks, there are software fixes that system administrators can install to limit the damage caused by the attacks. But, like viruses, new DoS attacks are constantly being dreamed up by hackers.

The first attack came Monday night and lasted about one hour. When the web site was again operational, I received several emails of inquiry for which I chocked up to a server issue. I did not know we were under attack. The excess flood of inbound traffic resumed this morning and the web site was either inaccessible or very slow until this evening. I'm told we are not up to full speed as a security measure and may not be for another 24 hours, so please bear with us. Fortunately, this DoS attack came when the weather is relatively quiet and gives the tech folks an opportunity to "harden off" the server even more. But, the rare downed server is a reality of the Internet. I know how many people depend upon Mid-Atlantic WX.com and we do everything possible to provide the support and service you expect from us.

This has just been a terrible day and so I'll close as did Scarlett O'Hara: "Tomorrow is another day".

Farewell to a Friend.
Monday, June 19, 2006

Quick post that has nothing related to weather. I will be out of the office this evening and much of Tuesday. Many of you know of my involvement with the Boy Scouts of America. Last Friday, our area Scout Council lost its' most senior volunteer; a gentleman and friend in my hometown who was 91 years young. Associated activities will require my absence from the WeatherCenter.

I mourn not simply the passing of a man whom scores of others aspired to mimic; I am saddened we have lost another person of elegance and grace...the personification of the word "gentleman". At Tuesday's funeral, I shall reflect upon one man's life of service and good work while challenging myself to live by those ideals.

Though my involvement in Scouting, I have a card in my office that reads: "A hundred years from now it will not matter what my bank account was, the sort of house I lived in, or the kind of car I drove…But the world may be different because I was important in the life of a child." So, I say thank you and Farewell to someone who knew he was.

If you care to learn more about this truly remarkable gentleman, click here: http://www.midatlanticwx.com/text/Col Brooke 0606.doc [click Open]

Beware the Blowtorch!
Friday, June 16, 2006

Some Like It Hot! If that's you, you'll enjoy the approaching blast of summer coming this weekend to the eastern US. A High Pressure Ridge will cross the Mid-Atlantic and briefly settle off the Virginia/North Carolina coast this weekend. Clockwise flow around High Pressure will pump increasingly warm, muggy air up from the South. Most guidance indicates this will be short-term heat wave...on Tuesday a Cold Front will progress east but should wash out and produce little precipitation and a slight drop in daytime high temps. I think by next Thursday (6/22) much of the region will be well into the mid-upper 80's.

Alberto report card. I try to objectively review my performance with each tropical cyclone, good (Katrina) or bad (Rita), so here goes with our first named storm of the year.

Location: A+. I am pleased with how my original landfall ideas were developed and panned out.

Strength: B. I was concerned Alberto wouldn't survive Sunday night and stayed with a moderate tropical storm. While that is essentially what made landfall, he was very close to a Cat-1 hurricane several hours before coming in. Shouda had a "A"...but earned a "B".

Timing: D. Originally thought the storm would come in late Tuesday/early Wednesday. Changed to 6AM-9AM but Alberto came in a little after 12:30PM.

Inland Track: B+. My forecast called for an inland track to North Carolina and that is how the storm behaved. This should also earn an "A+", but I was way too low with precipitation for eastern NC and SE Virginia, so the penalty shall be one letter grade.

Overall score: B.

Added some additional photos to the Mid-Atlantic WX.com Photo Gallery. Have a look here: http://www.midatlanticwx.com/publicgallery/weather_gallery.htm

Well, I nearly forgot that this Sunday is Father's Day! I wonder if my kid's remember? I forgot once when I was younger...I was out late with friends and realized suddenly it was Father's Day and I had neglected to buy a card for my Dad. After much searching, I located an open store, but was disappointed to find only two cards left on a picked-over rack. Selecting one, I brought it home and, somewhat sheepishly, presented it to Dad.

Upon opening it, Dad read this message: "You've been like a father to me." He looked at me, puzzled.

"Well, Dad," I tried to explain, "it was either that or the card that said, 'Now that I'm a father too!'"

A "Rainy Night In Georgia". Alberto Tracks Inland to the OBX.
Wednesday, June 14, 2006

(2:50AM) Alberto came inland Tuesday afternoon not far from Dekle Beach as a Tropical Storm...very close to the ideas presented here over the past several days ;). Attention now turns to heavy rain traversing Georgia and overspreading much of the eastern Carolinas. I am watching bands of storms continue to pinwheel in and early morning reports from the Low Country between Savannah and Charleston indicate some wind and storm damage...including a few possible tornadoes.

The remnant center should stay inland until ejecting over the Atlantic near the Outer Banks on Thursday. Heavy rain, gusty winds, scattered storms and tornadoes will persist over the eastern Carolinas Wednesday. Typical with remnant storms, the heaviest precipitation will fall north and east of the storm which is why the eastern Carolinas and southwest Virginia will see the heaviest precipitation. This area also is under a Flash Flood Watch and widespread rainfall totals of 4+ inches are very possible.

Later today a disturbance in the Great Lakes will approach the Mid-Atlantic as a trof and Alberto move through the region, so conditions will be cloudy and unsettled until this mess clears out on Thursday.

In hurricane season one always is looking "for the next big thing". A couple of computer models continue trying to develop a tropical wave in the Caribbean this weekend. Nothing eminent, but it is that time of year!

"Rainy Night in Georgia" was sung by Brooke Benton and is one of my favorite Motown songs; especially soulful at 3 in the morning.

UPDATE 8:00PM: What's left of Alberto continues pulling away from the Outer Banks of North Carolina and the Virginia Capes. I underdid rainfall projections as many eastern North Carolina stream gages and reporting stations have received over 5 inches of rain in 24 hours. In fact, Raleigh exceeded its all-time 24-hour rainfall total as 5.61 inches fell at the airport...by 6:00 THIS MORNING! Virginia Beach tallied just under 6 inches of rain from the storm. Numerous Flood Warnings remain in effect this evening and a Gale Warning continues for the OBX and Inlet.

Alberto again demonstrates inland flooding is often underestimated, even by those who forecast such events.
With Alberto departing the Mid-Atlantic region, temps will begin to rebound and we should remain precipitation-free through the weekend with temperatures from the upper 80's to low 90's.

Still watching the Caribbean over the next several days but nothing brewing...or doing...right now.

Alberto: HURRICANE WARNING!
Monday, June 12, 2006

(12:10PM) Alberto has strengthened this morning and may landfall as a Cat-1 hurricane. I'm most impressed with this storm given the sustained wind shear he is enduring. His landfall will be within my original "zone" of the Florida Big Bend to Tampa. The storm's center reformed about 60 miles north of its' earlier position so Alberto will come in closer to Big Bend...probably between Port St. Joe and Dekle/Keaton Beaches. Original timing thoughts look good as with landfall coming late Tuesday afternoon or early evening. Alberto's center should be to the west of Jacksonville...but it will be close...heavy rains, winds and tornadic activity all loom for folks in the area!

The Hurricane Center has the remnant storm tracking through coastal GA/SC before clipping the Outer Banks and heading out southeast of Cape Cod. Along with heavy rain for Florida, this scenario will push rain and gusty winds inland from Florida to southeastern Virginia. This has been the model's trend...shifting the cyclone slightly west so it hugs the southeast coast. I think the storm may be nudged east by an advancing Front that could become Stationary by Wednesday. This trof will enhance precipitation over Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas through Thursday. Typically, this storm track will not produce copious rainfall well west of the path, but precipitation could be expanded because of the previously mentioned trof. We'll see. Updated information here as time permits; an email Update will be sent later today.

Florida should be completing preparations now for a landfalling Tropical Storm or minimal hurricane on Tuesday afternoon.

UPDATE 2:20PM: Looking at satellite and water vapor presentations it is evident Alberto is increasing forward speed! This is also noted by the NHC in Intermediate Advisory 10A:...ALBERTO MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO COAST...

The Tropical Storm or minimal Cat-1 hurricane is now expected to landfall early Tuesday. Conditions certainly worsening as the cyclone approaches Florida this afternoon and evening. Please visit our HurricaneCenter for constantly updating information.

Feeder bands clearly visible on these Radar sites:
Tallahassee, FL
Tampa, FL

From the Radar pages, click Loops and then the red button to animate.
More later today.

UPDATE 5:30PM: No major changes with my thinking or Alberto's progress. Think the storm has leveled out but could come in as a Cat-1. Don't think we have a "Charley Scenario" here but storm surge, rain, wind and tornadoes are all on tap. Official landfall should be before Noon on Tuesday morning...no big changes to locations outlined here several times...Delke and Keaton Beach maybe Cedar Key seem likely right now. This should be Alberto's one and only landfall for the US as the trend continues slightly west. This happened last year and prompted my early warning for NOLA with Katrina. This is a different storm but seeing similar trends already. If true, the storm quickly degenerates to a Depression and then a Low while pouring rain and gusty winds overspread Georgia, the Carolinas and Virginia west of the Blue Ridge.

I am out of the office this evening so my next post here will be late Monday, after sending out an email Update.

UPDATE: 10:30 PM: Very little to add at this point as Alberto is behaving quite well tonight. The storm is not strengthening and may produce hurricane force gusts, it appears we will have a landfalling tropical storm; however recon and sustained wind reports at the surface may nedge Alberto to a 75MPH Cat-1 hurricane in the morning. There's a huge band of deep convection on Alberto's SE side but unlike early this morning it does not appear to be wrapping tightly in toward the center. This signals to me we will not see much intensifying overnight...especially as the cyclone soon begins interacting with land. I believe Delke/Keaton Beaches to Cedar Key (mentioned here earlier today) will be the general area the center comes ashore but there could be a little wiggling between now and then. Landfall will be Tuesday morning between 6-9AM. I know this web site has a huge number of regular visitors from Florida and the Tampa Metro in particular, so you folks are tuned in on local reliable media for coverage. Elsewhere across the region, heavy rain continues and thunderstorms will really fire up overnight as Alberto come inland...monitor and heed all Tornado Warnings, even well away from landfall!

The storm quickly goes Extratopical and heads northeast passing very near Savannah, GA and Myrtle Beach, SC. Rough surf, scattered severe storms and very gusty winds will accompany heavy rain as the remnants approach the Outer Banks on Wednesday afternoon. We have time to pin down details but ALL persons from Florida up through the Delmarva should closely monitor conditions as Alberto tracks through the region.

Reminder to Florida Folks...please share your Alberto pictures and video with us here at Mid-Atlantic WX.com! Here's a link with info on how to submit a photo: http://www.midatlanticwx.com/gallery_submit.htm
The Photo Gallery is here clicking here: http://www.midatlanticwx.com/publicgallery/weather_gallery.htm

Soon to be Official: Tropical Storm Alberto.
Sunday, June 11, 2006

(10:10AM) Recon found flight level winds of 51 knots this morning, even if associated with thunderstorms within the system it will become a Tropical Storm. While I can't find a closed off center, they apparently have done so...therefore...TS Alberto will be "official" at 11AM EDT today. Wind shear continues to plague development and the storm's convection is blown downstream from the weak center of circulation (this inhibits rapid intensification) They have fixed the Low somewhat West of last night's position which is not uncommon with disorganized storms; this will affect the track but the idea holds this comes in on Tuesday as a weak tropical storm. I will stay with Big Bend to Tampa but folks throughout Florida should prepare for rain, gusty winds and the possibility of tornadoes. More later today in an email Update to be sent this evening.

Tropical Depression #1...Possible Threat to Florida.
Saturday, June 10, 2006

Our INVEST has become TD #1 and as of 11PM Saturday, looks disorganized and weak. Hurricane Hunters were unable to locate a center this afternoon and it is possible the storm is attempting to organize a center of circulation...or it may be wind shear is strongly impacting development. As I wrote in Friday's email Update, if it survives I'm on record forecasting a weak Tropical Storm on Tuesday from the Big Bend area to Tampa, FL. This system is moving slower than anticipated therefore it may be late Tuesday or early Wednesday but rain overspreads the Keys and Florida sooner than that. We'll see how things look in the morning. Assuming the cyclone crosses the Sunshine State, models and the Hurricane Center bring the storm close to the OBX of North Carolina, then SE of Cape Cod. I agree that Alberto stays inland to near OBX. Get the latest on the storm by visiting our HurricaneCenter page

This storm worries me for another reason. The analogues and data I use to develop ideas on the hurricane season led me to strongly speculate this season will be Texas, the Caribbean and East Coast. The first storm of the season sometimes is a tip of the hand of what is to come. If TD#1 or TS Alberto track as forecast, that will concern me as it affects two of the three areas I believe will experience the greatest threat from tropical cyclones this year. Another problem...should this hold together in some form and make it to off-shore New England, that area will likely get another dousing. Just what they don't need.

Wow, as of today, my oldest daughter is officially a High School graduate! If you've "been there, done that", you recognize that is a moment of joy and trepidation. Between working on TD#1 and a little family time, I dug out Harry Chapin's "Cats in the Cradle". Chapin attended Ithaca College (my Alma Mata) and I saw him perform this song several times. I was just a kid back then and didn't get it...but I sure did today.

I know it is getting late because the mockingbirds have starting their nightly concert, so I'll sign off for now. I love nature and the outdoors but between the mockingbirds and our Screech Owl, it gets noisy up here at night! And, judging the fragrance wafting into my office, our skunk is back! He does a good job keeping the raccoons off the deck so I'm cool with him as long as I just smell him and never see him! Well, I bid you a good evening from my very own "Wild Kingdom".

From Jeannie in Cape Coral, FL.

Welcome to the 2006 Hurricane Season!

Normally I would be worried about this storm but we have had such a dry season that I am praying for more rain. We have had many private wells go dry in my area and all the brush fires. We saw some this morning with some wind gusts and we are hoping for some good soaking. We have all our supplies for the summer storms and just hope we don't need to actually use them this time.

Congrats to your daughter on the graduation! Yes, been there and done that once so far. I was lucky enough to get the meaning of the song long ago and made sure that dad takes time with our boys when he is home.
He is out of the big rig and home every night now so they love it even more.

Take care and I am sure we will be hearing from you a lot again this season. I appreciate your alerts, trust them more than a lot of the others.

Add Your Comment! Click Here.

First Atlantic Tropical INVEST of 2006.
Thursday, June 8, 2006

The Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season, 2006 begins (for real) today as INVEST 90L forms in the Western Caribbean. We are providing model maps on this system as part of our Premium Service weather section. INVEST simply means area of investigation; at this time it is not an organized storm. An INVEST is an area of disturbed weather that is being investigated or monitored and if it does get organized (closed Low with 30MPH winds) it will become Tropical Depression #1. Every INVEST does not become a TD...good thing because an active year may see 40+ individual INVESTs!

Because an INVEST is not an organized storm, it is not displayed at our HurricaneCenter, nor does the National Hurricane Center issue advisories. Right now, INVEST 90L ("L" simply means it is in the Atlantic Basin as opposed to the Pacific) computer models are hinting this disturbance may form a Tropical Depression and then track into the Gulf of Mexico. If it does, it will immediately appear on our HurricaneCenter page; meanwhile, we'll continue to provide coverage on our model maps in the Premium Service weather section of the web site.

Here's another opportunity for me to remind everyone how vitally important it is that everyone has prepared and reviewed their individual emergency preparedness plans. It is so frustrating to see TV video of folks flocking to Home Depot to purchase plywood 24 hours before landfall. It may be too late then, but it is not too late now.

We've added over one dozen new photos to the Mid-Atlantic WX.com Photo Gallery. Please share your weather photographs and videos with us. Information is here.

My oldest daughter graduates from High School this Saturday. Boy, I am feeling old. After completing payments for her first year college tuition, room and board, I will feel old...and broke!

Need to give a Booyeah ToYa to Amy is Strasburg, PA for correcting me in my last entry. I said someone will tell me if Mr. Potatohead was not the one who said: "Mission Accomplished" in Toy Story. Of course I was wrong...it was the Sergeant...voiced by R. Lee Emery. I remember him from Apocalypse Now, Full Metal Jacket and Mississippi Burning. I find him uproariously entertaining as host of Mail Call on The History Channel. Thanks, Amy ;)

Say "Cheese"! The Photo Gallery is Online.
Friday, June 2, 2006

A pet project of mine over the last several months has been getting a new photo gallery on the web site. Life and work continually get it the way of getting it done, so I resolved to get a small version online before hurricane season. As Mr. Potatohead said in Toy Story: "Mission Accomplished". By the way, I'm not sure it was Mr. Potatohead...if I'm wrong, someone please let me know!

Anyway, I managed to lose a ton of pictures after a nasty hard drive crash in December, 2004. Until then, I backed up data but not pictures. Not anymore! Now, everything of value is backed up to another PC and also burned onto CD. When it comes to backing up stuff, I'm like the old disco song by the Trammps: "Burn, Baby Burn!" (Disco Inferno).

Thanks to several nice folks who regularly visit Mid-Atlantic WX.com, I have a couple dozen *great* photos and launched the Photo Gallery. The Gallery is divided into four photo albums: Severe Weather/Tornadoes, Hurricanes, Sky & Clouds and Winter. I hope y'all will send your weather photos to Mid-Atlantic WX.com so that we can share with everyone.. Here's a link with info on how to submit a photo: http://www.midatlanticwx.com/gallery_submit.htm
Stop by the Photo Gallery by clicking here: http://www.midatlanticwx.com/publicgallery/weather_gallery.htm

Right now, there are no photos of yours truly...I worked in radio for 31 years and radio guys have a thing about having their picture taken. Besides, weather is much more interesting than me and I'm always behind the camera. There is a picture of my son that was taken while we were on a chase in 2004. At some point, I suppose a picture of me will show up on the site but until then, it's fun being a mystery...just like the old days when I was on the radio! Speaking of my son, he went to see X-Men III and couldn't wait to tell me the character played by Halle Berry was named "Storm" and she controlled the weather. This sounds pretty cool to me and I may actually go to see the movie. This is a major undertaking for me as I don't watch movies...can't sit still for two or more hours. The last flick I saw in a theatre was "Gods and Generals"; the prequel to "Gettysburg" shot in part in my hometown of Lexington, Virginia. Portions of last year's "War of the Worlds" were filmed literally up the road from where I live, but it was in local theatres during Dennis and Emily and I couldn't take off any time. So, I'm not much of a movie-goer but "X-3" may be on my list this weekend. If I could be like Storm, I'd surely whip up some rain for much of the Mid-Atlantic. Despite scattered storms that dumped over one inch of rain, the area remains quite dry. Every storm this week has missed me and our weather station has recorded less than one and a half inches of precipitation in the last six weeks. Until it rains, I'll just pretend I'm Storm while holding the hose and watering the plants and garden. Not as exciting, but it gets the job done.

Back to the Blog