Scott's April 2006 Blog

Mid-Atlantic Radar

Scott's April, 2006 Blog

Let the Fun and Games Begin. FIRST INVEST OF 2006 Magically Appears
Saturday, April 29, 2006

So, I'm in the WeatherCenter office last evening checking on a couple models concerning today's severe potential for TX and LA. I glance at my email Inbox and this is what was received from the National Hurricane Center:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
2100 UTC WED JUN 08 2006

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 84.0W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

I was stunned! I knew of nothing tropical brewing off Western Cuba. I looked at the surface map only to see nothing doing. About this time, I receive an email from an acquaintance in New Orleans informing me WLW radio is reporting a tropical depression off western Cuba in the lower Gulf of Mexico. Now I am getting confused...WWL is a most reputable radio station. Folks in NOLA don't want to hear a surprise tropical "anything" in the Gulf of Mexico! Then, quite by accident, I found the problem...look at the date on the third line of the email above. Wednesday, June 8, 2006.

The National Hurricane Center mail server errantly sent this message. There is no Tropical Depression near Cuba.

That's not the end of the story as there IS an area of investigation well off the Southeast US coast. This Low Pressure gale center is "INVEST 91L". Invest is short for area of INVESTigation and computer models do initialize on these weather features. So, quite by accident, the NHC incorrectly announces the season's first Tropical Depression the same day the first area of investigation develops! Still not sure why there is an INVEST on a non-tropical Low Pressure area but it makes for an interesting weekend.

This low is not tropical and is associated with a slow moving and complex pattern upstream over North America. It won't turn into a tropical storm but may head toward the Maritimes and kick up seas quite a bit.

Our hurricane model maps are available on a subscription basis, however I have linked the current
INVEST 91L model map on the site for free...I'm such a nice guy ;) Here's the link:
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

Folks like me who are fascinated by hurricanes talk about them all year. We consider hurricane season to unofficially begin when the first "INVEST" develops ...so, we're off to a very early start this year. And after all the confusion and shenanigans last night, we're off to an exciting start, too. Let's hope when things quiet down they stay that way for a good long while. Do I think that will be the case? You probably know the answer!

One Month Before Hurricane Season: FEMA Ain't Fixable!
Thursday, April 27, 2006

Calling the Federal Emergency (Mis-)Management Agency a "symbol of a bumbling bureaucracy", US Senators today recommended dumping the bureau altogether in favor of an new response oriented agency.

Who knows if this will come to pass; certainly not on the eve of another hurricane season. But the report and recommendation will again put FEMA under the microscope of public scrutiny, and that is a good thing.
I have ranted for *years* about FEMA's inadequacies while talking to reporters and politicians about how the agency (and others) frequently got in the way of immediate, grass-roots disaster relief. I celebrated Michael Brown's "resignation"! Scapegoat? To a degree, yes. He alone was not responsible for the agency's bungling...the White House, state and local governments, DHS and the American Red Cross all deservedly earned the scorn of a weary public. But, Brown wasn't sniping BEFORE Katrina made landfall. He wasn't screaming about underfunding, understaffing and Homeland Security politics BEFORE Katrina. No...FEMA's boastful Director was happy in DC bragging about their anticipated response. AFTER Katrina, he suddenly finds fault with everyone, but himself. Shameful.

FEMA does not work and needs to be completely redefined. Perhaps today's actions will move the political debate in that direction. It won't help anyone affected by this year's landfalling storms, but we need to begin somewhere.

Story is here: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060427/ap_on_go_co/katrina_congress_24
Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee: http://hsgac.senate.gov/

The New Bruce Springsteen Album
(I mean "CD"...I'm showing my age).
Wednesday, April 26, 2006

For every problem I have ever experienced in life, there is a Springsteen song. I've been hooked on the Boss since the 70's when I attended Ithaca College in Upstate New York. Springsteen was playing the Jersey Shore and area colleges so it was easy to see his show on a regular basis...which I did. Then I went to work on-air in radio and played "Born to Run" every Friday afternoon at 5PM; a tradition lasting many years.

Yesterday, "We Shall Overcome: The Seeger Sessions" was released and I am blown away! But, do not anticipate The Boss doing rock and roll. Backed up with the 17 piece Seeger Sessions Band, this new release is an earthy blend of blues, folk, shanty and even gospel, all done in three "1 take" sessions, each without rehearsal. There is nothing new, however wonderful old tunes such as "Jesse James", "Jacob's Ladder" and "My Oklahoma Home" are sure to please. If you're wondering, the last song is indeed about a twister in the Sooner State! Being Irish and a Civil War nut, I was happy to hear "Mrs. McGrath" included in this collection. And, in this part of Virginia, "Shenandoah" is a special song...Springsteen's haunting rendition is unlike any you have previously heard. We adore this song here in the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia, we just "forget" the song is about the Missouri River! ;)

There's enough zydeco on this CD to make you feel like you're in N'awlins or with the Creoles in South Louisiana (without Katrina). This is a fun CD...in fact, I've caught my hip-hop and grunge loving kids listening and tapping their feet...there is hope for them yet! If this genre of music is of interest to you I urge you to check out this innovative new collection of songs by my favorite musician.

Gotta go and crank it up again but you can check it out here: http://www.brucespringsteen.net/site.html

This Cloud is Ticked Off About Something.
Thursday, April 20, 2006

Sometimes, I get mail that is just so good I couldn't possibly make it up! Such is the case with a curious photo sent to me here in the WeatherCenter. This gives new meaning to "angry clouds". If you are easily offended, don't click, otherwise check this out:
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/gallery/curiouscloud.jpg
I believe the Latin name of this rare cloud is: Flipoffius Cumulus. Gotta tell you, were I driving down the road and saw that on the horizon, I'd know it wasn't going to be a good day so I'd just turn around and go home.

New Fire Detection Page Added to the Site.
Tuesday, April 18, 2006

Added a new page displaying current and new fire detections in the past 24 hours. There's also a link with text information on each new fire. I will get this handy new page linked on the home page and in our Severe WeatherCenter...and will post the link here:
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/hw3/hw3.php?config=&forecast=pass&pass=firedetection&dpp=0.

3 TSRA in 1 day and not a good chase to show for it. Drats!
TWC tornado chaser crew gets put in the slammer.
Friday, April 14, 2006

First, what is "TSRA"? The TS stands for thunderstorm and RA is the abbreviation for rain. So, TSRA simply means a thunderstorm with rain. And, we had three of them today back here in Lexington, Virginia. Looking at the data, the first rumbled through around 9AM, the second at 2:30PM and the third began flashing the sky at 9PM. I was back in town for the evening show and headed out to intercept a very strong cell coming out of Alleghany County; this was interesting because radial was suggesting some rotation. By the time I reached Botetourt County (just north of Roanoke), the cell had weakened and jumped to the southeast...lots of lightning and rain and the tail end of 1/4 inch hail...nothing impressive. I have had terrible luck chasing this year, but it is only mid-April so there will be more opportunities. If you believe a couple of the models, that chance could come on Easter Sunday as yet another Low rolls from the west. Organized storms capable of producing hail and strong wind should traverse the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. Hold onto those Easter bonnets!

In other news, three Weather Channel storm team chasers were arrested covering the Warren County, TN tornadoes. Wednesday morning they were put in the slammer allegedly for trespassing on property where a woman was killed by one of the twisters. Anyone who knows me knows I loathe The Weather Channel and find it among the most useless outlets for current weather (not to mention their local forecasts are terrible), however these guys are not employees of the network. Whenever one chases and ends up in the damage path there are always video crews shooting footage to sell to TV...that's just the way it is. I know some folks in the Plains who do this quite professionally and with a high regard to the rights of others...these jabonis allegedly were told numerous times to leave and refused to do so. They get their day in court and TWC gets a black eye. I have a suggestion for them: how about actually forecasting a tornado outbreak as it is happening and skip the incessant flipped-over trailers video we always get. Just a thought.

This has been a long week and another cluster of storms (MCS) is crossing the Ohio Valley. It's 12:15AM so I'll catch some Zs in case things get noisy overnight.

Live! From Orlando!
Another 2005 "Named" Storm Develops at the Hurricane Conference.
Thursday, April 13, 2006

Interesting discussion coming from the NHC's Annual Hurricane Conference this week; seems we really should have had even one MORE named storm last year! NHC's analysis of 2005 data indicates Subtropical Depression Number 19 was actually a Subtropical storm. So what you may ask...well, that storm would have been named "Vince" and Wilma would have been Vince. What makes this even more unusual is the Greek alphabet storms would have started one storm earlier, so Zeta would instead have been named Theta (6 Greek named storms!!!).

This brings up an interesting possible scenario...the most intense hurricane recorded in the Atlantic basin would have been the first Greek alphabet storm, Alpha. The lowest pressure ever recorded in an Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone (882 millibars) occurred as Wilma underwent an incredible "bombing out" in the Gulf the night of October 19. Had Subtropical Depression Number 19 been named (Vince), Wilma, as noted, would have been Alpha. The WMO would then have had the daunting task of deciding to retire a never before used Greek alphabet name. Had that happened, I wonder what would name would have replaced Alpha??? Confused? That's okay. STD #19 will become Subtropical storm #19 but can not now be named, making another curious asterisk to the 2005 hurricane season. If you're counting, that means we in reality had twenty-eight (28) named storms in 2005.

Our 2005 Atlantic season track map showing all storms is here:
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/hw3/hw3.php?config=&forecast=tropsystems&alt=t
ropicalmaps&maptype=allstorms&year=2005&region=NT&hwvmetric=

Larger, scalable version from TPC/NHC is here:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tracks/2005atl.pdf

Wilma when she bombed out and set the record. Click to enlarge.

Yes, there has been ample conversation at the Conference regarding the East Coast...specifically, how unprepared the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England areas are for a landfalling hurricane. In this new "post Katrina" weather world we live in it is a regret folks up along the eastern seaboard have forgotten Floyd and Isabel. Fortunately, they have me to continually rant about these dangers ;)

Otherwise, I see this week in Lexington, VA (home of Mid-Atlantic WX.com), the temperatures have ranged from 28° to 83°. Ahhhh...Spring in the Shenandoah Valley.

Gotta mention, Slight Risk for severe wx for the Mid-Atlantic on Friday so we'll be keeping an eye on that. May send out a WeatherCenter email Update after looking at the models and forecasts Friday morning. I recall a killer tornado in Warren, Arkansas on Good Friday, 1975. Good Friday, 1997 was a bad day for twisters in Kentucky as six or seven tornadoes spun down injuring dozens and killing two persons. Hopefully, none of that this year.

Someone told me there was a tornado warning in VA by the Chesapeake and one inch hail was reported in Westmoreland County, right along the Bay. I miss all the fun.

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